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Sustainable planning model toward reviving Lake Urmia a
Habib Alipour & Hossein Ghasemi Tangal Olya
a
a
Faculty of Tourism, Eastern Mediterranean University, Gazimagusa, TRNC, Turkey Published online: 04 Sep 2014.
To cite this article: Habib Alipour & Hossein Ghasemi Tangal Olya (2014): Sustainable planning model toward reviving Lake Urmia, International Journal of Water Resources Development, DOI: 10.1080/07900627.2014.949636 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2014.949636
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International Journal of Water Resources Development, 2014 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2014.949636
Sustainable planning model toward reviving Lake Urmia Habib Alipour and Hossein Ghasemi Tangal Olya* Faculty of Tourism, Eastern Mediterranean University, Gazimagusa, TRNC, Turkey
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(Received 17 March 2014; accepted 26 July 2014) Lake Urmia (Urumieh in Persian) in north-western Iran is one of the largest permanent hyper-saline lakes in the world and the largest lake in the Middle East. It has numerous ecological, economic and social implications in terms of biodiversity, climate, species, habitat, tourism and recreation. However, during the past decade, the lake has shrunk significantly and its depth has fallen by almost 6 m. Contrary to other studies that have focused on the geomorphology of the lake, this study analyses the socio-environmental impact and provides a sustainable adaptive governance management model for its revival. This study reveals that unless various stakeholders and affected parties are actively involved in an implementable adaptive governance model, the fate of the lake will remain uncertain. Keywords: sustainable governance; disappearing lake; natural resources management; adaptive strategy; Lake Urmia/Iran
Introduction The disappearance of lakes is a worldwide phenomenon and, therefore, is not unique to Lake Urmia in north-western Iran. Regrettably, there is a long list of lakes – including Pontchartrain, Chad, Victoria, Texcoco, Zumpango, Xaltocan, Xochimilco and Chalco; Loktak; Chinese lakes; and even the Aral Sea – that either have disappeared or are in decline (Abha & Khundrakpam, 2012; Benduhn & Renard, 2004; Brown, 2001; Jarsjo¨ & Destouni, 2004; Masari, 2006; Phillip & Schewe Shijie, 2011; Singh, Thompson, French, Kingston, & Mackay, 2010; Small, Van der Meer, & Upshur, 2001; Treaster, 2010; Wilson et al., 2007). However, the causes and consequences of disappearing or declining lakes vary in different parts of the world. Nevertheless, the disappearance of these lakes’ ecosystems has been mainly caused by either human intervention in various forms or natural elements (Moss, 1992; Timms, 2005). Notwithstanding the causes of decline or disappearance, the sustainable existence of lakes has economic, climatic, environmental, social and recreational implications. The negative ramifications of disappearing lakes manifest in mass localized extinction, population crash, declining biodiversity, disease, habitat loss, climatic change, pollution and loss of the amphibian population, just to name a few. Lakes have great significance in terms of physical, ecological, economic and social benefits. Physically, they act as reservoirs for storing water and filtering it for recharging ground water storage; ecologically, they sustain a wide variety of life forms (migratory birds, mammals, fish, amphibians, reptiles and many plant species); economically, they provide a wide range of valuable products; and socially, a large number of people sustain their livelihood by making use of them. In spite of performing so many important functions, these lakes are under severe stress and are becoming ecologically dead (Abha & Khundrakpam, 2012, p. 107).
*Corresponding author. Email:
[email protected] q 2014 Taylor & Francis
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To save Lake Urmia, this study aims to develop a sustainable adaptive governance management (SAGM) model that synthesizes the elements of this aquatic ecosystem into a comprehensive management perspective. Therefore, the main contribution and significance of this model, contrary to previous approaches dominated by the public sector, is its innovative nature. First, the model will restructure the relationships between the communities and their land-use systems relevant to the various purposes for water consumption. Second, the model’s facilitating mechanism enables the stakeholders’ representation by ensuring they understand the issues, i.e. they have a realistic assessment of the potential benefits and problems as well as the availability of the options (i.e. the building blocks of successful deliberation) (Hartz-Karp, 2005). Consequently, the model facilitates and paves the way for reaching a consensus that ultimately will influence both the policy and policy-making. The proposed model is contextualized based on an assumption that lakes around the world, including Urmia, have succumbed to ill-fate because of two dominant factors: man-made and natural, either individually or in combination. This paper is structured in four parts. The first provides the profile of Lake Urmia, the causes of its decline and shrinkage, and the consequences. The second elaborates on the research method’s process and findings. The third addresses the policy failures regarding the revival and management of the lake. The fourth elaborates on the proposed model and its practicality, with an emphasis on its implementation. The case of Lake Urmia: a profile Lake Urmia, the third largest salt lake in the world, is situated between the East Azerbaijan and West Azerbaijan provinces in the north-western corner of Iran (378300 N; 46800 E) at an altitude of 1250 m above sea level. It is thalassohaline (Abbaspour & Nazaridoust, 2007) with oligotrophic characteristics. The lake extends as much as 140 km from north to south and approximately 85 km from east to west during high-tide periods (Jalili, Kirchner, Livingstone, & Morid, 2011). It covers an area of 5000 km2, with another 200 km2 of inlet extending into the Kurdistan Province of Iran (Figure 1). The lake is subdivided into north and south arms by a 1-km causeway that connects the cities of Urmia (West Azerbaijan) and Tabriz (East Azerbaijan). This causeway allows a limited exchange of water between the two parts of the lake (Agh et al., 2007; Azari Takami, 1987). Of the 13 main rivers of various lengths that cross many geological formations and flow into the lake, the three main ones are Zarrinerud (42%), Seminerud (13%) and Godarchay (10%). Registered as a biosphere reserve and listed as a wetland of international importance, Lake Urmia is home to one of the world’s richest biologically diverse environments (Femia & Werrell, 2012). However, as a result of natural factors and human activities in recent decades, the lake has been evaporating; it has lost 6 m of its depth. Daily shrinkage has reported to be 3 mm (Dehghan, 2011). This dramatic decrease in volume has further concentrated salts in the lake, thus raising salinity to more than 300 g/l (Alipour, 2006; Eimanifar & Mohebbi, 2007), which is eight times saltier than ordinary seawater. Aquatic biodiversity is limited by the lake’s salinity; the lake does not support any fish or mollusc species and no plants other than phytoplankton (Abbaspour & Nazaridoust, 2007; Alipour, 2006; Ghaheri, Baghal-Vayjooee, & Naziri, 1999). Wetlands surrounding the lake support a variety of salt-tolerant plant species. There is significant phytoplankton growth, with reports of some dense algae blooms occurring during years with low salinity. The most significant aquatic biota in the lake is a brine shrimp species (Artemia urmiana). This macro-zooplankton species is the key link in the lake’s food chain; it
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International Journal of Water Resources Development
Figure 1. Position and location of the Lake Urmia basin, Iran. Source: Authors.
consumes algae and, in turn, is consumed by several bird species, including the lake’s migratory flamingo population. More than 210 species of birds (e.g. flamingos, pelicans, spoonbills, gulls) and many species of reptiles, amphibians and mammals (e.g. yellow deer) inhabit the lake or the surrounding riparian area (Femia & Werrell, 2012; Ghaheri et al., 1999; Scott, 2001). Lake Urmia’s diverse bird population and its associated wetlands were
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H. Alipour and H.G.T. Olya
documented in a series of surveys in the 1970s that recorded an impressive list of species (Abbaspour & Nazaridoust, 2007; Agh et al., 2007). The lake also attracts tourists from domestic and international markets because of its unique landscape, national parks, valleys, fauna, flora and sightseeing. It also has potential to be utilized for educational and scientific studies. One aspect unique to Lake Urmia, and another reason it attracts tourists, is its medicinal component known as Lajan, or mud from its coasts. According to medical experts, this compound contains certain organisms that are highly effective at treating skin diseases, psychosomatic complications and inflammation of the basin during pregnancy (Abbasnejhad, 2013). Studies show that Lake Urmia has potential resources (i.e. curative properties) to provide for the development of health and ecotourism (Nemati et al., 2009). The climate in Lake Urmia’s catchment is mainly controlled and affected by the surrounding mountains. Because of 10 years of a progressively dry climate in the area, the water level is about 6 m less than it was 20 years ago (Jalili et al., 2011). The lake’s surface area has shrunk from 6100 km2 in 1995 to 2366 km2 in 2011 (Landsat data) (Eimanifar & Mohebbi, 2007). Historically, the volume of water in the lake was estimated to be 19 billion m3, with an area of 5700 km2 (Alipour, 2006). In this context, there is a crisis in the making that not only will have international and regional implications, but also will pose an immediate threat to 7 million people near the lake and have environmental consequences that will affect the population nationwide. That is, the lake is a socio-environment composed of numerous dimensions with social, economic and cultural implications at local, regional, national and international levels. Causes and consequences of decline Human intervention is one of the major causes of Lake Urmia’s decline (Zarghami, 2011). Population growth and an increasing demand for water play a detrimental role in the decline and eventual disappearance of this body of water and its ecosystem. Human intervention can take different forms. For instance, building a causeway to reduce the distance between the cities of Urmia and Tabriz has had a negative impact on the lake. By reducing the circulation within the lake and altering the pattern of water chemistry, the causeway has accelerated evaporation (Alipour, 2006; Eimanifar & Mohebbi, 2007; Golabian, 2011; Zeinoddini, Tofighi, & Vafaee, 2009). The central research question is: What were the causes of the lake’s decline in the past decade and why have the top-down approaches of the public sector remained unimplemented? Undoubtedly, global warming and drought have also affected the lake’s evaporation. However, the lack of an integrated approach and implementable policy supporting the inclusion of ecological and social aspects in water management is prevalent. Furthermore, the lack of an adaptive governance structure has exacerbated the process and intensified the decline. Evidence for this is the damming policy, which resulted in the construction of 36 dams on the inflowing rivers without taking into consideration a balanced approach to address a semi-arid climate, drought, climatic change and population growth. This has resulted in a dramatic increase in salinity, reaching a maximum of 220 parts per trillion (ppt) in 1999 and over 300 ppt during 2001– 02 (Agh et al., 2007). Dam construction for hydroelectric power and water diversion for agricultural irrigation have not been based on a sustainable strategy. Unsustainable irrigation is an outcome of expanded irrigation of arable land that traditionally depended on crop production by dry farming. The intense damming policy is in response to the demand for water by farmers and villages as well as the cities that are located in the catchments of
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some of the inflowing rivers (Dehghan, 2011). For instance, the Tabriz metropolitan area receives water for its municipality’s consumption from Zarrinerud (the major inflowing river to the lake), notwithstanding its far distance from the river’s catchment.1 Another major factor is population growth in the regions (i.e. Azerbaijan and Kurdistan provinces of Iran). Such growth has been high in the past three decades because these regions are mainly rural areas and involved in primary economic activities, especially farming. However, farming in these regions is dominated by rain-dependent and irrigated agricultural land. Furthermore, the area is classified as semi-arid with its own climatic specificity. This dilemma is most acute in regions that do not receive adequate rainfall. Raindependent areas can be broadly categorized into ‘drylands’, which receive less than 750 mm of rain a year, and rain-fed areas, which receive more than 750 mm of rain a year (SIID, 2013). Traditional multi-cropping methods have collapsed because of the population growth and increasing demand for water, the construction of dams without appropriate planning or understanding the climatic characteristics of the regions, and the lack of a transformative approach to agricultural innovation or adaptation (Ferguson, Brown, & Deletic, 2013; Hanson, 2012; Kennedy, 2009). Traditionally, farmers reduced their vulnerability to rain by planting multiple crops; however, a shift to a narrow focus on commodity-based agriculture and mono-cropping designed for growing high-yielding varieties of commercial crops has quadrupled the demand for water consumption and increased the application of chemicals (Fitzgerald-Moore & Parai, n.d.; Glaeser, 1987; Meyer, 2007). Therefore, dam projects, intensive water extraction from the rivers to irrigate raindependent farmland, the intensive use of fertilizer and lack of managed irrigation have reduced the amount of water that feeds Lake Urmia. The human factor and lack of a proactive management system are partially to blame. Nevertheless, the changing ecosystem in and around the lake, as well as the intensity of the wind in the region, would mean any salt remaining after evaporation would destroy flora and fauna in the surrounding area and be harmful to human health (Dehghan, 2011). Sustaining the lake’s productivity requires maintaining aquatic ecosystems and ecological viability, which depends on serious policy debates with the inclusion of all stakeholders. This is especially so in arid and semi-arid areas where the environment and its social and economic structures are highly vulnerable to unsustainable land use (Blanco-Gutie´rrez & Purkey, 2013). Therefore, saving the lake demands governing bodies (governance) composed of stakeholders’ participation at all levels, with the aim to preserve an international heritage and sustain the lake as an economic resource and ecological asset. Conceptual framework The theoretical framework that guided this research is mainly contextualized based on the Complex Adaptive System (CAS), which is also known as complexity theory, chaos theory, and complexity science and systems thinking (Palmberg, 2009). This school of thought is a departure from and an alternative to the linear, reductionist thinking that has ruled scientific thought since the time of Isaac Newton (Dodder & Dare, 2000; Palmberg, 2009). The justification for such departure is ‘because the Earth and its components have been found to operate as an interactive whole, a complex adaptive system, one with interdependent and integrated parts displaying unpredictable behavior, constantly evolving, and in general not amenable to analysis by orthodox, linear, deterministic science’ (Farrell & Twining-Ward, 2004, pp. 276– 77). It is an interdisciplinary paradigm that examines the dynamic interactions and behaviours of natural and social complex systems and it is a synthesis of biological, social, geophysical and technology systems research which
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took hold in the mid-1980s with the formation of the Santa Fe Institute (as cited in Dodder & Dare, 2000; Farrell & Twining-Ward, 2004). This approach was developed to overcome the challenges posed by complex systems (e.g. Lake Urmia ecosystem) where the ‘breakdown scenario’ (Gallopı´n, 2002) has become a reality as a new dynamic state. Such a dynamic state (i.e. the case of Lake Urmia) ‘is manifested in such events as climate change’, and is believed ‘to lead to extensive cascades of change in multiple locations and of unpredictable severity, excessive exploitation of resources resulting in the degrading of ecosystems, and likely governmental and community resistance to widespread remedial action’ (as cited in Farrell & Twining-Ward, 2004, p. 257). Lake Urmia is an example of a complex system that bears the two attributes that are widely targeted by CAS, i.e. both the natural and human world. It is also a system that has co-evolved with its environment, which makes it highly suitable to be approached in the context of CAS. This is because CAS itself is composed of a network of many agents gathering information, learning and acting in parallel in an environment produced by the interactions of these agents (Dodder & Dare, 2000). CAS is also conducive to the dimension of ‘sustainability’ as a fundamental concern in designing a model (i.e. proposed in this study). In fact, the authors’ proposed model, based on CAS, allows a systematic analysis of the interconnections between the economic, social and ecological systems. ‘Sustainability’ concern is also not treated only as an environmental issue; rather, it is considered a ‘sociopolitical movement to improve and sustain human wellbeing indefinitely without impairing the life support systems on which it depends’ (Farrell & Twining-Ward, 2004, p. 275). This is also because of numerous categories that are part of the building blocks of the lake’s structure/ecosystem, which present a complex scenario requiring a complexsystem approach. The categories are: life categories (stakeholders activities), physical categories (energy and information), dynamic categories (spatial dynamics), and systemrelations categories (endogenous and exogenous) (Schianetz & Kavanagh, 2008). Interestingly, CAS contextualizes sustainability as a ‘science’, which is also embedded in the present model and must be conceived as a transition, journey or path rather than an endpoint or achievable goal (Kates et al., 2001; National Research Council (NRC), 1999). The study method To address the aim of this case study, both qualitative and quantitative research was used based on observation, participation, semi-structured interviews, content analysis and a binomial test (Figure 2). To obtain a clear picture of the case study, data-gathering involved interviews, direct observation and assessment of catalogued institutional planning documents relevant to Lake Urmia. This process was utilized to identify the key pitfalls and issues of the plans and policies that are supposed to rectify the dire situation of the lake. The fact that one author is native to the region provided an advantage in terms of access to the documents and reports regarding the case (Iran Environmental Organization (IEO), 2010; Iran Ministry of Energy (IME), 2008; Salvitabar, n.d.). The qualitative research phase involved semi-structured interviews with 46 respondents/informants composed of academicians, local people, officials in public institutions, experts in research centres and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). ‘The aim of phenomenology is the return to the concrete, captured by the slogan “back to the things themselves”’ (as cited in Groenewald, 2004). Applying phenomenology, in the context of the qualitative method, the researcher delves into the lived-experiences of the people who are involved with and affected by the phenomenon that is being researched (Robinson & Reed, 1998). The approach, in line with phenomenological research design, attempts to ‘describe’, as accurately as possible, the phenomenon, refraining from any presupposition and
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Figure 2. Research design. Source: Authors.
concerned with the lived experiences of the people (Holloway, 1997). Such a framework of the research was utilized as a means for discovering the practical understandings of the schemes and their shortcomings at the stage of implementation (Bryman, 2012). A semistructured interview with 20 questions was conducted. Interviews were completed in June – July 2013. Locating the informants was also relevant to the phenomenon under study, where ‘the phenomenon dictates the method (not vice-versa) including even the type of participants’ (Hycner, 1999, p. 156). Purposive sampling method, which is the most important kind of non-probability sampling, was applied to identify the relevant informants (Welman & Kruger, 2002). This also called a ‘process tracing method’ (George & Bennett, 2005), which is an appropriate method for case studies and theory development in social sciences. This process has also advantages for exploring causal processes and analysing complex decision-making (Tansey, 2007). The selected sample was also based on the purpose of the research. Therefore, we looked for those who have had knowledge and experiences relating to the phenomenon researched. The data-collection process included formal and informal interviews where an informal approach was a conscious attempt to explore more information about the setting of the participant. Since the composition of the participants was different, the duration of interviews and the number of questions varied from one participant to the next. This allowed one to contrast and validate the data in case they yielded similar findings (Holloway, 1997). The selected sample was also based on the purpose of the research. Therefore, we looked for those who have had knowledge and experiences relating to the phenomenon researched. The data-collection process included formal and informal interviews where an informal approach was a conscious attempt to explore more information about the setting of the participant. Since the composition of the participants was different, the duration of interviews and the number of questions varied from one participant to the next. This allowed one to contrast and validate the data in case they yielded similar findings (Holloway, 1997).
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The data-gathering process was founded on the central research question: What were the causes of the lake’s decline in the past decade and why have the top-down approaches of the public sector remained unimplemented? The gathered data (i.e. data storage) were composed of audio-recorded interviews and memoing (i.e. descriptive and reflective notes). Memoing/field notes act as a secondary data storage, crucial to retaining the data gathered (Lofland & Lofland, 1999). Memos/field notes were dated in order to correlate them with the data during the analysis. In addition, data storage included accessing documents that were subjected to content analysis. Data analysis This stage was conducted based on the ‘motto’ that, in qualitative research, analysis is a process of transforming the data through interpretation. However, we took the further effort of validating the analysis quantitatively (e.g. binomial test). Nevertheless, the following steps were applied to achieve data analysis/explication: a. Listened to audio recordings of each interview repeatedly to develop a holistic sense. b. Bracketed presuppositions in order to avoid inapt subjective judgments. c. Organized the data into coherent categories and units of meaning (i.e. transcription). d. Formed themes/patterns based on respondents’ answers (e.g. consistencies and differences). e. Applied a ‘validity check’ by going back to interview summaries to make sure we captured the essence of the interview correctly. f. Gave each theme a code and assessed it for its commonality to most or all of the interviews as well as individual variations. The results of data analysis/explication transformed to a composite summary, which is reflected in Table 4, as the context/horizon from which the themes emerged. In the meantime, the perspective of the participants interviewed crosschecked against the public sector’s proposed schemes (i.e. four out of six schemes) to uncover and capture the essence of how the top-down approach has failed in the revival of the lake (Table 1). In all, six different ad hoc approaches have been forwarded by different institutions, universities and research centres (i.e. commissioned by the public sector) in a top-down manner (Table 1). These schemes were subjected to a meticulous content analysis (manifest and interpretative) (Burg & Lune, 2011) in order to explore the planning flaws of current approaches and the nature of policies that fell short of implementation (Table 4). The research findings span both description and understanding/explanation of schemes, and reveal the influences and factors that have hindered the implementation process. For this purpose, respondents’ perceptions analysed quantitatively in terms of discrepancy of views (Table 2) were verified by the binomial test (Table 3). The analysis was conducted using SPSS version 20 (Coakes, 2012). Findings Policy failures Data analysis was conducted in two phases that strengthened the reliability and validity of the study. The first phase involved an attempt to crosscheck the respondents’ comments against the public sector’s proposed schemes (Table 2) in terms of the scheme’s great or
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Table 1. Proposed plans/projects for Lake Urmia and its revival. Proposed plan/project
Plan description
Water transfer from the Aras River to the lake
This plan was proposed by MahabGhodss Consulting Engineering Company. The aim of the plan is to transfer 244 MCM of water through a diversion from the Aras River to the east and north-eastern parts of the lake. Cost: US$9 billion/year with a 20% discount rate. According to an evaluation of researchers who proposed this plan, Iran’s annual right of water in excess of the Aras River is 1005 MCM by 2025. However, this will result in a decrease of hydraulic power of Nakhjavan dam, which may be lead to conflict between Iran and Nakhjavan over water and energy. With such a cost, the feasibility of this scheme is in doubt
Assessment of the geodynamic characteristics and possibilities to increase the water level in the lake
This study was conducted by the Iranian Institute of Water Research. The results revealed that tectonic and geodynamic movement will cause the elevation of the southern part of the lake, which will result in submergence of smaller islands and wetlands. Furthermore, by contrast, northern and central parts of the lake’s bed will be exposed to ground water drainage, especially around the coast. It will also cause the water level in wells, particularly in the western and north-western parts, to drop drastically
Replacement of evaporation to stabilize the volume of the water need
This project was conducted by the University of Sharif, which revealed that annual evaporation from the lake surface is more than 5 billion CM, which is three times more than the volume of water stored by the dams in operation
Comparative analysis and research for possible solutions
In this comparative research the aim was to explore further understanding and knowledge of the behaviour and processes of lakes similar to Urmia. Balkhash Lake in Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Lake Van in Turkey and Seven Lakes in Armenia were investigated over the past six decades. The findings revealed that Lake Urmia and Lake Van have similar characteristics in terms of basin temperature, latitude, water level fluctuation, area and climatic system. The result indicated that despite similarities, Lake Urmia has dried and declined much faster than similar lakes. Therefore, environmental factors alone were ruled out. Thus, factors other than environmental and climatic should be considered – mainly human factors
Cloud fertilization programme in the lake’s basin
This scheme was suggested by the National Cloud Seeding Research Center. A feasibility study revealed that such a scheme is more economical compared with other schemes; however, it is still a costly project with US$15 per extraction of 1000 CM of water
Lake area minification
This plan was suggested by an Iranian-based scientific research centre (an NGO) that proposed a minification scheme by applying soil dykes along with reclamation of dried areas through reforestation
marginal efficiency towards lake improvement. This was highly plausible because the local stakeholders are the source of local knowledge and attach direct value to their immediate environment, which might be in distress (Allen, 2007; Taylor & de Loe¨, 2012; Zagonari, 2008). On more than one occasion the respondents expressed their disappointment with the proposed schemes for not involving practices of mediation, shared databases and cross-sectoral networks to help each other gain relevant information at the right time and understand local development. For instance, respondent X1, a resident farmer, when asked if he has been consulted about proposed scheme, he commented that:
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Table 2. Respondents’ perceptions regarding the proposed schemes. Expert and scientific community
Public sector Proposed schemes 1. Water diversion/transfer 2. Cloud fertilization 3. Lake area minification 4. Comprehensive/sustainable approach/plan Number of respondents
Local people and NGOs
Total
N
%
N
%
N
%
N
% Status
8 2 1 7
62 40 17 32
1 1 3 11
8 20 50 50
4 2 2 4
31 40 33 18
13 5 6 22
28 11 13 48
18
16
13
46
NI NI NI NI –
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Note: N number of the respondents; NI, not implemented.
No, we have never been asked to participate in any workshop or discussion regarding the gradual decline and consequences of the lake; furthermore, we have remained in the dark what are the causes of decline and how the situation can be rectified.
In this context, the respondents’ views were analysed in relation to four proposed schemes (Table 2). As shown in Table 2, 28% of the respondents believed that the water transfer scheme was the main solution to save and sustain the lake. Of those respondents, more than 60% were public sector officials, 8% were experts in the scientific community and 31% were local people or NGOs. Only 11% of the respondents were supportive of the cloud fertilization scheme. Of those respondents, 40% were public sector officials, 20% were experts in the scientific community and 40% were local people or NGOs. A total of 13% of the respondents supported lake area minification. Of those respondents, 17% were public sector officials, 50% were experts in the scientific community and 33% were local people or NGOs. However, an interesting picture developed when respondents were asked about the comprehensive/ sustainable approach: 17% of the public sector officials, 50% of the experts in the scientific community and 33% of the local people or NGOs expressed their support for this scheme. An inference can be made from the results: A high percentage of public sector officials support any top-down plan without paying heed to sustainable approaches or those at the local level. When the respondents were asked why their views were not concentrated (focused) on one scheme, their answers indicated a lack of clarification of the top-down approach, a lack of knowledge of sustainability, and a lack of any public discussion of these schemes regarding possible shortfalls and benefits. This result was also subjected to a binomial test (Table 3) to further verify the findings. The binomial test result indicates that there is a statistically significant difference ( p , 0.001) between proponents of the policies that were supposed to improve the lake’s condition and the opponents who did not support the present approaches. The proportions of respondents who believe that the present efforts and policies have failed Table 3. Result of the binomial test for determining policy failure. Policy Success Failure Total
Number of respondents
Mean
SD
Test proportion
p-value
11 35 46
0.26
0.44
0.50
0.001*
Note: * Significant at the 0.001 (two-tailed test). Policy is a dichotomous variable where 0 is considered ‘failure’ and 1 a ‘success’.
International Journal of Water Resources Development Table 4.
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Result of reflexive/iterative data analysis. Outcome description
Institutional failures
Lack of a strategic policy by the Water Bureau in Western Azerbaijan Lack of attention by the Agricultural Bureau Lack of management of surface water flow Lack of studies prior to dam construction Lack of an environmental impact assessment Lack of management of underground water systems Lack of attention by the Bureau of Natural Resources Lack of attention by environmental agencies Lack of an established balance and carrying-capacity analysis relevant to the amount of land that has been irrigated due to dams and the amount of water that is needed to flow into the lake, e.g. Bookan Dam Lack of an assessment by the Bureau of Agriculture to identify the appropriateness of land/soil for which type of crop. Simply, there should be a study to interrelate the land use, soil type, water need and type of crop When it comes to the type of crop, the traditional crops in most river embankments are dominated by wheat and barley. These types of crops do not need that much water and are mostly planted on dry land that depends on rainfall. However, with the construction of dams, this type of cropping, which is also known as subsistence farming, is replaced with cash crops (walnuts and grapes), which need too much water. As a result, water consumption is increased tremendously Another factor that exacerbated this process relates to lack of proper management and coordination by the Ministry of Natural Resources. Thus, unsuitable cropping and intense irrigation have resulted in the removal of soil and increased sedimentation into the rivers One more factor that added to the traditional way of life along the rivers is the development of industrial packets along rivers that use up too much water and pollute due to lack of monitoring and environmental regulations. Population growth, lack of waste management and industries (e.g. fish farming) all have polluted the rivers Lack of management and planning about water reservoirs by the public institutions in charge Inappropriate irrigation and intense consumption of water due to licensing that is not in balance with the carrying capacity of the bodies of water available Client list approach to farming and licensing Traditional irrigation systems that result in a waste of water (i.e. known as the upper canal system) Lack of modernized irrigation systems in villages Presently over 70% of the irrigation in villages along the rivers are based on traditional methods
Failures of top-down schemes
Irrigation of catchment areas along the inflowing rivers which used to be based on dry land farming Irrigation of the catchment of the lake area Illegal extraction of water through pumping along the inflowing rivers Lack of local involvement in management schemes Lack of water distribution management; water that is flowing from the dams Inappropriate crop cultivation that results in high water consumption to grow
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Man-made factors
(Continued)
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Table 4 – continued
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Man-made factors
Outcome description Before 1996, when the population pressure was not as much as it is currently, land could be easily saturated during the rainy season. However, with declining rainfall and population growth, the capacity of underground water tables began to decline. This is exacerbated by repeat irrigation and further pressure on water tables underground Another factor is evaporation. This is due to overall global warming, which results in increased salinity. Salinity intensifies as the water consumption increases The concentration of dams in some regions has resulted in a change of weather pattern. This has affected rain and snowfall. When talking to villagers who reside in and around the dams, they have experienced weather pattern change in the context of lowest and highest temperatures. Such a pattern is relevant and essential to the amount of rainfall and snowfall. This situation has affected the meteorological systems as well as the amount of snowfall The change of weather pattern and temperature along with lack of snowfall not only resulted in lack of water but also affected the flood pattern. In this case, flood waters flowing through the rivers into Lake Urmia have declined. This form of flooding is not necessarily hazardous; rather it is the source of extra water into the lake. Of course, the source of flooding is also snowfields, but with lack of snow, flooding is less frequent
are significantly high (by a value of 50%). In fact, this finding was confirmed by a nationally televised poll conducted in 2013, where 76% of the participants considered Lake Urmia’s case to be one of the most acute environmental challenges and unsolved problems.2 This is also verifiable through a longitudinal assessment of the lake that indicates the public sector’s ad hoc approach and delayed attention notwithstanding the gradual decline of the lake’s ecosystems. This is highly understandable as the water level and surface area of the lake has shrunk/recede by 6 m during recent decades (Figure 3). Eimanifar & Mohebbi (2007, p. 3) have also reported that a ‘concomitant increase salinity (220 –300 g/l) was observed during the years of declining elevation’. The first phase of the analysis of respondents’ views revealed the following barriers and pitfalls in reference to the proposed plans/schemes: . The ‘short-termism’ nature of plans (the short-term focus wins over long-term social and environmental concerns). . Lack of proactive planning (too much damage was already done and initiatives to save the lake came too late and failed implementation). . Lack of stakeholder involvement, especially at the regional and local level – mainly in West Azerbaijan province/Urmia region. . Lack of integration with regional and local level policies and capacities. . Lack of political will and irrelevancy of top-down plans. . Lack of coordination and governance (political clash among different power bases with contradictory interests). Respondent X2, an academician, when asked about the manmade factors that caused the problem, commented: Authorities were aware of the declining state of the lake; however, they failed to participate in guiding the farmers regarding the appropriate use of water resources notwithstanding the
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Figure 3. Reduction trend of the water level (a) and surface area (b) of Lake Urmia during recent decades. Source: Adopted from Pengra (2012), reproduced with permission from the author. gradual reduction of water flow into the lake. Overconsumption of water for irrigating the drylands [i.e. rain-dependent land] along the main rivers (e.g. Zarrinerud) is one of the major causes of stoppage of water flow into the lake.
The second phase involved an attempt to crosscheck the respondents’ comments against the public sector’s policies by focusing on institutions that were behind the proposed schemes and flaws in the top-down planning process. This phase was also complemented with informal and formal conversations with people who are affected by the lake’s decline, as well as a comprehensive content analysis of the planning documents (Iran Environmental Organization (IEO), n.d.) (Table 4). The findings of this phase revealed that over a decade ago policy-makers failed to recognize the emerging signs of Lake Urmia’s decline. Furthermore, the reflexive and iterative research (Srivastava & Hopwood, 2009) revealed that two categories of manmade factors have played a convincing role in neglecting the process of the lake’s decline: institutional failures and failures of top-down schemes (Table 4). As shown in Table 4, the outcomes of each category have been elaborated according to the analysed data based on respondents’ answers to the interview questions by utilizing content analysis, a quantitative measure of the responses, a binomial test, qualitative analysis and formal/ informal conversations (i.e. outcome description). This phase of the study revealed that most of the approaches have been ad hoc at best and reactive.
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In this regard, respondent X3, a public sector employee stationed in the region, expressed that: I have been working with the water resource bureau in the region for the last 28 years. I am involved in monitoring and data collection for several dams in the region. I am aware that no studies were conducted prior to building these dams [absence of environmental impact assessment]. The building of the dams have caused the climatic changes and reduction of snowfields as well as drainage of water reservoirs
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In addition, neither of these approaches was able to apply the effective governance that is essential in sustainable development. Institutions failed to realize that good governance is needed to disseminate the concept of sustainability among the stakeholders, especially those at the local level, as well as a practical strategy that is shared by those who are affected. As Kardos (2012, p. 1166) articulated: Good governance has always been recognized to be a critical tool for advancing sustainable development and a crucial element to be incorporated in sustainable development strategies. In this context, through its strategic mechanisms, good governance contributes to engagement for long-term commitment and strategic objectives, to policy coherence through vertical and horizontal coordination, to an open, transparent process of involving and consulting stakeholders and to bringing sustainable development strategies closer to local communities, to people.
The research has also explored mitigation strategies and recommendations through a proposed SAGM model, which is an integrated and adaptive bottom-up approach conducive to situations where a multiplicity of local stakeholders attach direct values to ecological integrity. This approach is in contrast to the previous schemes because it clarifies the implementation process at the beginning and adheres to a bottom-up approach and provides mechanisms for stakeholders’ involvement (El Asmar, Ebohon, & Taki, 2012).
Proposed model (SAGM) The sustainable adaptive governance model (SAGM) (Figure 4) is grounded in and inspired by adaptive management (AM) (Holling, 1978; Walters, 1986). AM has become an effective procedure for managing ecosystems where there is uncertainty about how the system works, which creates uncertainty about how best to manage the ecosystem (Hauser, 2008). This presents a challenge to practitioners, who must reach a common understanding with partners, stakeholders, managers, scientists and decision-makers.3 Nevertheless, it is becoming a highly practical tool for facilitating sustainable planning. Regarding natural resources, Bormann et al. (1999, p. 506) stated that ‘adaptive management is an approach to managing complex natural systems that builds on learning – based on common sense, experience, experimenting, and monitoring – by adjusting practices based on what was learned’. Ample evidence in the literature tries to accommodate AM to complex situations where numerous stakeholders are involved and, at the same time, sustainability of the resources is at stake. In the meantime, AM must approach the specific environment (e.g. Lake Urmia) with the aim to achieve multiple objectives – economic, social, ecological, historical, cultural, recreational and communal, to name a few – in a sustainable framework. For instance, ‘Adaptive management attempts that experience only limited success are often generic top-down systems focused around expert opinion, not place-based frameworks guided by local knowledge and concerns’ (cf. Larson & Poudyal, 2012, p. 927). The model’s adoption of sustainability is not metaphorical; rather, it alerts the stakeholders to come to terms with the carrying capacity of the lake’s ecosystem and to develop a much more balanced, systematic,
Figure 4. Sustainable Adaptive Governance Model (SAGM). Source: Adopted from Larson and Poudyal (2012), reproduced with permission from Taylor & Francis.
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integrated and sophisticated assessment of its economic, social and environmental relationships (Hall, 2009). Raising awareness of limits to growth (Jackson & Roberts, 1999) and drawing attention to the lake’s so-called steady-state economy (Daly, 2008) will allow ‘steady-state resource dynamics and the means of attaining optimal sustainable growth path’ (Jackson & Roberts, 1999, p. 63). In this context, sustainability means ‘improving the quality of life while living within the carrying capacity of supporting ecosystem’ (cf. Jackson & Roberts, 1999, p. 63). Therefore, in such a framework, the significance of context-specific outcomes, local contribution, a sustainable vision and stakeholders’ involvement in planning the revival of the lake and its sustainability takes priority (Miller & Twining-Ward, 2006; Schianetz & Kavanagh, 2008). Regarding the natural resources management and stewardship, human intervention and impact have been established as the major agents of ecological change (Bormann et al., 1999). Regardless of the climatic change and natural factors, we believe that the decline of Lake Urmia is also a product of human-made factors and the lack of a formidable, proactive approach that follows an integrative management initiative (i.e. shared by institutions and stakeholders). Such an initiative should have three fundamental goals. First, it must aim for sustainability over long periods of time. Second, it must be adaptable to the conditions and concerns of the local environment and local communities. Third, it should provide and facilitate mechanisms for stakeholders’ involvement in implementing the initiatives. Of note, among the factors that have been established, drought is the only non-human-related factor that has affected Lake Urmia. Besides drought, factors such as dams, deep-water wells, population pressure, expanded irrigated agricultural fields and lack of governance are noted as the main factors attributed to the decline. On the basis of these themes, the assumption is that a case-specific SAGM model is essential to prevent further decline and initiate Lake Urmia’s revival. The proposed SAGM model is an unconventional approach toward rejuvenation of the lake, where the conventional models have failed. As the study revealed, the previous top-down plans have never been implemented because of the lack of a holistic and integrative approach to include all stakeholders in the planning and implementing stages (Burns, 2004; Ryan, 2006). Therefore, this study is recommending an inclusive SAGM model with practical implementation mechanisms based on sustainability – a principle that is reemphasizing implementation through a place-specific planning system (Table 4). Contrary to prescriptive top-down plans designed by central government, the proposed model is based on governance, which is a practical framework for development where the ‘crisis of development has been described as a “crisis of governance” by the World Bank’ (cf. Popoola, 2013, p. 101). In fact, the model has been deduced from our observations and ample data where the proposed plans have failed because of the lack of implementation and practical outcome. The study showed that most of the previously proposed plans to revive the lake were devoid of meeting the real demands of the affected communities and environment, or they were not based on relevant information or data. The SAGM model is a locally oriented approach and based on special local circumstances, thus allowing the public and private sectors, NGOs, and the scientific community to participate. The SAGM model is an alternative model that supports the pursuit of three categories of objectives. The first category involves fundamental objectives that are both scientifically credible and operational policy-wise (Tanguay, Rajaonson, & Therrien, 2013). The second category is shown as means objectives, where human impact and activities are minimized and adapted to the carrying capacity of the lake’s region to avoid contradicting the lake’s revival. The third category includes means sub-objectives, which prioritize six objectives that are focused on social, economic and environmental
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dimensions. For each objective to be an operational policy tool, various sources of support and logistics have been elaborated (see the different boxes connected to the relevant objective in Figure 3). As shown in the bottom layer of the model, numerous governmental and quasi-governmental organizations with different responsibilities are in charge of the lake. The main issue that research has revealed is a lack of participation, i.e. a lack of governance as a cohesive element to bring the local people and the institutions together. The SAGM model is paving the way for such participation as a significant structure of governance. This will allow for transparency, accountability, effectiveness and equity and will embed local knowledge into institutional policy. As Lutz and Linder (2004) elaborated (cf. Popoola, 2013, p. 102): It comprises of a set of institutions, mechanisms and processes, through which citizens and their groups can articulate their interests and needs, mediate their differences and exercise their rights and obligations at the local level. It requires a partnership between local governmental institutions, civil society organizations and private sector for participatory, transparent, accountable and equitable service delivery and local development.
The SAGM model is dynamic and can evolve as it is implemented. This is possible because the process involves goals and objectives that are set to focus on specific desired outcomes that measure the progress for both the ecology of the lake and the communities that surround it. This model also allows for monitoring as a mechanism to ensure the outcomes are being met. These interrelationships between the local people, NGOs and public institutions highlight the iterative nature of the process, which can be effectively implemented to revive the lake while following the principles of sustainability. Conclusion This paper has argued that in addition to natural factors, human-related factors have played a detrimental role in the decline of Lake Urmia. If this is the case, the lake can be sustained by human intervention through an elaborated policy model considering the clarity of the objectives. The approach must involve two broad layers of actors, namely, public and grassroots-level institutions that follow the guidelines established by the SAGM model. Unfortunately, despite all efforts, which have been the result of ad hoc decisions, a measurable outcome has not been achieved so far. The study revealed that the main reason for the failure of the proposed policies is a lack of governance in cooperation between the public sector and local people. A lack of valid data, lack of shared information, lack of participation and lack of incorporated local knowledge are among many other humanbased factors that have curtailed progress. In the case of Lake Urmia, SAGM had not been in place; therefore, the responsible local, regional and national institutions have been unable to interpret climate data; recognize the negative impacts; and evaluate the severity of drought and its economic, environmental and social impacts (Youngman, 2012). Blaming the natural factors as the causes of decline is an easy way of holding other involved parties responsible. This paper suggests that an adaptive sustainable governance approach may help policy-makers and local people guide and monitor Lake Urmia’s revival. The SAGM framework would help identify the main causes and priorities, thereby facilitating the creation of cohesive objectives among the various supporting elements responsible for and committed to this internationally renowned ecological asset. The SAGM approach allows monitoring of specific indicators individually across various spatial and temporal scales. This approach may be necessary to support sustainable development that addresses environmental, economic and social challenges. If SAGM is adopted successfully in the
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case of Lake Urmia, then the lessons learned from this sustainability framework could be used to assist other declining ecosystems that are still subjected to the one-dimensional approach of rigid policy-makers. We recommend that the place-specific indicators need to be explored and established. These indicators can become a useful tool for further research regarding the stakeholders and their perception about how to come up with a sustainable plan to revive the lake. It is acknowledged that one limitation of this study is that the analysed samples of the schemes and projects are not necessarily exhaustive and may not provide the complete collection of every planning document. Some of the documents are not accessible. It is reported frequently that the shrinking process of the lake is caused by various factors, but one of the main human factors is the absence of an integrated, adaptive approach and realistic considerations regarding the approach’s implementation. The study adds further credibility to complex adaptive systems (CAS) as a non-linear and holistic path to understand the complex systems, and make initial steps in a useful direction by adopting more integrated and participatory approaches. This will be in contrast to the present rigid prescription and top-down management structures where attention to place-based studies is abandoned. Last but not least, ‘sustainability’ in this study has shifted from being an achievable goal to the concept of transition based on multiple spatial and temporal scales in a dynamic landscape of evolving human values. Notes 1. 2. 3.
Personal communication, Tabriz Municipality Water Department, 2013. See http://www.jamejamonline.ir/NewsPreview/1202774100158474437/. See http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfp/amhome/Admin/index.htm/.
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