Journal of Energy and Power Engineering, ISSN 1934-8975, USA
Statistical Evaluation of Worldwide Sustainable Energy Production (2000-2010) Z.Canan Girgin Yildiz Technical University Architectural Faculty, 34349, Istanbul, Turkiye
Abstract: In this study, a detailed statistical evaluation was performed about the advancements in the renewable energy capacity (especially wind and solar energy) depending on progressive technological developments. Total energy consumption as well as renewable energy production from natural sources is statistically evaluated in the basis of leading countries for the period of 2000-2010. Key words: Renewable, energy, wind, solar
1. Introduction World population (annual 1.5 % growth currently) as well as the industrial requirements increase continously. Average daily electricity consumption per capita for the top consuming nations vary from 4.3 kWh (Germany, Austria) up to 20.5 kWh (Norway) in Europe [1] and is 12 kWh in U.S; household demands are also two or three times of these amounts. Fossil based non-renewable sources (coal, natural gas, oil) still play the major role in energy consumption in the world. Hydroelectric as a renewable source and nuclear energy are other primary energy sources as well (Fig.1). It is noted that other green sources (wind, geothermal, solar energy etc.) are not yet evaluated as primary energy sources. Meanwhile, in view of renewable source utilization -mainly hydroelectric, geothermal, biomass- Iceland, Norway and New Zealand are the top three countries. Wind and solar power are affordable, efficient and inexhaustible sources of electricity. They produce no polluting emissions (e.g. yearly emissions eliminated via 1 MW wind turbine instead of 1 MW of conventional sources: carbon dioxide over 1,500 tons,
6.5 tons of sulfur dioxide, 3.2 tons of nitrogen oxides, and 30 kgs of mercury in one year) causing global warming and toxicity. In 2007, European leaders adopted the target to meet 20% of their energy demands from renewable sources (biomass, hydro, wind and solar power) by 2020. In fact, current energy based installations in Europe denote different alternative energy types. As of 2008, the most important actor is wind energy (35.6 %) and the third important one is photovoltaic (PV) panels (Fig. 2). In the world, based on the data from [2], while nuclear energy production was in an upward trend by the middle of 1980’s (at an average rate of 23 % per year from 1965 to 1985 in the world), especially after 1990, average growth is only 1.65 % from 1990 to 2010 in the world, and negative in 2007-2010 due to raising concerns about disposing of radioactive waste as well as safety and environmental concerns. As a part of this downward trend in the world, e.g. Germany in 2001 adopted to close all nuclear power plants by 2032 and to use nowhere nuclear energy.
* Author: associate professor; research fields: sustainable structural systems, sustainable energy, statistical evaluations E-mail:
[email protected] 1
Journal of Energy and Power Engineering, ISSN 1934-8975, USA
80%
60%
40%
Coal
Natural gas
Oil
Hydro electric
South Africa
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Singapore
Hong Kong
Taiwan
Thailand
India
Indonesia
South Korea
China
Japan
New Zeland
Brazil
Australia
Mexico
USA
Canada
Ukraine
UK
Turkiye
Switzerland
Spain
Sweden
Poland
Nuclear energy
Portugal
Norway
Italy
Netherlands
Ireland
Iceland
Greece
France
Germany
Finland
Denmark
Czech Republic
Austria
0%
Russian federation
20%
Bulgaria
Rates in primary energy consumption
100%
Fig. 1 Rates of sources in energy consumption of countries as of 2008 -based on data from [2]-
European power capacity installed in 2008 Biomass 1.2% Hydro Coal 2.0% 3.2%
Geothermal etc 0.6% Nuclear 0.3%
Fuel Oil 10.5% Wind 35.6%
Photovoltaic 17.6%
Gas 29.1%
Fig. 2 Rates in European power capacity installed in 2008 -data from [3]-
2. Wind and Solar Energies as Renewable Sources Electricity production by wind energy accounts for 1.5 % of global production today [4] and only 160 million tonnes CO2 savings (0.5% of total emission) are possible. Savings in CO2 emissions can be predicted annual 1.5 billion tonnes by 2020. While wind energy technology improves, productivity increases with cost effective turbines.
Wind energy is cost-competitive with coal and gas-fired power plants (e.g. average 0.059 $/kWh in U.S [5], 0.12 to 0.15 €/kWh in Germany, Spain, UK and Denmark). Based on accelerated development and improved policies, a global capacity of 1500 GW is possible by 2020. In EU, 34% aim instead of an 20% target to be met by renewable sources seems possible by 2020 (14% from wind energy, 10.5%
2
may be predicted by 2020. U.S, Germany, China, Spain and India respectively are the biggest wind power producers in the world (Fig.4). However, there are different rates in view of wind energy per capita (Fig.5) (Data were given in Appendix). Two decades ago Denmark started progressively to increase installed capacity and produced the most wind energy per person (16.6 kWh/day) in 2010 with a growth rate 58% as from 2000. The second important producer is Spain (10.52 kWh/day) with a six-fold growth and the third producer is Portugal (8.60 kWh/day) with a 33-fold noteworthy increase as from 2000. Cumulative wind power capacity (MW)
from hydroelectric, 6.6% from biomass, 2.4% from solar photovoltaic, and 0.9 % from others). Solar power is not continuous and production times do not match consumption times. Too much solar power needs to be stored as expensive and/or inefficient. Cost of solar energy has fallen sharply over the last 20 years and will drop to a cost-competitive level within the next 10 to 15 years. Price of solar energy is 0.15 to 0.50 $/kWh, average 0.25 $/kWh, today. By 2020, PV electricity cost may be predicted to decline under 0.10 €/kWh for industrial size systems and under 0.15 €/kWh for residential systems [6]. China moves away from its dependence on coal and would meet 15% of its total energy consumption from green sources by 2020 [7]. Germany intends to implement large offshore wind turbines erected far away from the coastlines as well as solar energy to meet the renewable energy target of 30% by 2030 and 60% by 2050. 2.1. Statistical Evaluation of Wind Energy A regression analysis was carried out for the installed wind power capacity in Europe by 2020 (Fig.3). According to this analysis, if the current implementation trend continues, 250 GW capacity
300000
Installed Predicted
250000
2020
200000
2015
150000 100000
2010 50000 0
2000
1995
Fig. 3 Cumulative installed wind energy in Europe and forecast for 2020 -data from [3]
Wind power cumulative installed capacity (2000, 2010) 50000 45000
Wind power (MW)
40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000
India
Taiwan
China
Japan
Canada
UK
USA
Sweden
Turkiye
New Zeland
2010
Australia
2000
Austria Belgium Denmark France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Norway Portugal Spain
0
Fig. 4 Cumulative capacity of wind power (2000, 2010) -data from [2] [8]
3
Journal of Energy and Power Engineering, ISSN 1934-8975, USA
Although China and France initially have low cumulative wind energy capacity per capita, they showed the greatest enhancement with 120- and
90-fold growth from 2000, respectively. Australia and Belgium has also increased the capacity per capita 62- and 50-fold as from 2000.
Daily wind energy production capacity (2000, 2010)
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2
2010
Taiwan
India
China
Japan
New Zeland
Canada
UK
Turkiye
Australia
2000
USA
0
Austria Belgium Denmark France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Norway Portugal Spain Sweden
Daily wind energy per person (kWh/24h/person)
20
Fig. 5 Cumulative capacity of daily wind energy per person (2000, 2010) -data from [2] [8]
Australia’s target (26000 GWh/year) is predicted as 3 kWh/day per person for 2020. U.S increased wind energy per capita to 3.15 kWh/day and aims 100 GW by 2020 (about 7 kWh/day per capita). U.K has a target of 28 GW (10 kWh/day per capita offshore and onshore) by 2020 far from 5.9 GW in 2010. Turkiye’s target is to set up a capacity increased by a factor of 20 by 2020.
2.2. Statistical Evaluation of Solar Energy Germany (17.3 GW), Spain (3.9 GW), Japan (3.6 GW) and Italy (3.5 GW) are the top countries in solar power production as of 2010 (Fig. 6). After 1990s Germany increased solar energy production continuously and is leader in 2010 with 2.54 kWh -daytime- per capita (Fig. 7).
Solar power cumulative installed capacity (2000,2010) 18000
14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000
India
Israel
South Korea
Japan
China
Australia
UK
USA
Turkiye
Spain
Canada
2000 2010
Sweden Switzerland
0
Italy Netherlands Norway Portugal
2000 Austria Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece
Solar power (MW)
16000
Fig. 6 Cumulative capacity of solar power (2000, 2010) -data from [2] [8] 4
Journal of Energy and Power Engineering, ISSN 1934-8975, USA
While there is nearly no solar energy production in 2000, Czech Republic (2.29 kWh), Spain (1.01 kWh), and Belgium (0.93 kWh) -daytime- per capita are important producers in 2010. India’s goal is to generate 22 GW (16 kW per capita) of solar power by 2022. Japan aims 28 GW for 2020 (2.76 kWh
-daytime- per capita) to decrease dependency to imported fuels. Germany, which produces solar energy with the current lowest prices (average 0.26 €/kWh) [7], has a target of 51 GW installed capacity by 2020.
3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
2000 2010
Austria Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Italy Netherlands Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkiye UK USA Canada Australia China Japan South Korea India Israel
Solar energy -daytime- per person (kWh/person)
Solar power cumulative installed capacity (2000, 2010)
Fig.7 Cumulative capacity of solar energy –daytime (assumed 12 hours)- per person (2000,2010) -data from [2] [8]
3. Conclusions and Remarks
with nonrenewable sources. Denmark, Spain, Portugal,
In the next future renewable sources will become an
Germany and Ireland are the top wind energy
important energy source instead of consuming fossil
producers per capita (daily 7.6 to 16.6 kWh) in 2010.
based sources (oil, coal, natural gas) and to decrease
In Europe, to meet 34 % of total electricity production
CO2 emissions causing global warming.
Growth in
by green sources seems possible by 2020. To save our
efficiency and production capacity of wind and solar
world another renewable energy sources can be also
technologies make them more cheaper and competitive
evaluated (tidal energy, hydrogen etc).
References [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8]
http://www.mpoweruk.com/electricity_demand.htm Statistical Review of World Energy_2011.xls EWEA European Statistics 2009 WWEA WorldWindEnergyReport2008.pdf http://www.nrdc.org/energy/renewables/wind.asp EPIA Set for 2020. 2009; (http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2010/04/accelerating-solar-a-look-at-the-next-decade) EPIA-Global-Market-Outlook-for-Photovoltaics-until-2015_1.pdf http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/
5
2 Apppendix : Statistical data used in the study Wind energy Solar power Solar energy Wind power Country (kWh -daily-daytime(MW)1 (MW)1 (kWh per capita)2 per capita)2 2000
2010
2000
2010
2000
2010
Austria
0
1013
0.00
2.96
5
102.6
0.01
0.15
Belgium
19
955
0.04
2.20
Bulgaria
0
470
0.00
Czech Republic
0
192
0.00
Denmark
2341
Finland
39
France
63
5961
0
803
0.00
0.93
1.57
0
17.7
0.00
0.03
38.6
15.3
0.45
0
1953
0.00
2.29
41.8
3805
10.53 16.60
2
7.1
0.00
0.02
169
0.18
0.77
3
6.9
0.01
0.02
2.22
11
1025
0.00
6107 27364
1.78
8.02
114 17320
Greece
274
1482
0.62
3.31
Ireland
122
1449
0.77
7.59
Italy
424
5793
0.18
2.30
19
3502
0.00
Netherlands
473
2241
0.71
3.22
13
96.9
Norway
0
411
0.00
2.12
6
9.2
Poland
3
1231
0.00
0.77
Portugal
111
3837
0.26
8.60
1
130.8
0.00
2836 20300
1.68
10.52
2
3892
Sweden
265
2141
0.71
5.67
3
Switzerland
0
18
0.00
0.06
Turkiye
0
1512
0.00
UK Russian Federation Ukraine
425
5862
0 0
24.6
23.7
18.4
3.9
18.8
23.8
14.4
1.3
24.0
24.0
52.0
0.0
0.0
0.02
12.6
13.4
39.3
20.2
14.4
0.19
4.7
15.4
35.6
39.0
5.3
0.02
2.54
25.8
23.6
38.3
10.9
1.5
0.00
0.23
23.7
11.0
62.5
0.0
2.7
9.2
29.7
59.6
0.0
1.4
0.70
9.5
39.7
45.5
0.0
5.3
0.01
0.07
8.9
36.4
53.8
0.9
0.0
0.02
0.02
1.0
8.5
21.5
0.0
69.0
59.3
13.2
26.8
0.0
0.7
0.15
13.9
18.7
60.0
0.0
7.3
0.00
1.01
10.7
23.8
52.8
9.1
3.6
10.1
0.00
0.01
4.1
1.8
30.6
30.7
32.9
15
100
0.03
0.16
0.4
9.6
41.1
21.2
27.8
0.50
0
6
0.00
0.00
30.4
31.8
30.4
0.0
7.4
0.17
2.27
2
71.5
0.00
0.01
16.8
40.0
36.9
5.6
0.6
9
0.00
0.00
N.A
N.A
14.7
55.0
19.3
5.4
5.5
94
0.00
0.05
N.A
N.A
30.4
40.8
11.6
15.3
2.0
2610 40274
0.22
3.15
139 2519
Canada
139
4011
0.11
2.87
7
Mexico
3
769
0.00
0.17
14
Brazil
22
1261
0.00
0.15
Australia
30
2084
0.04
2.35
New Zealand
35
495
0.22
2.82
China
352
44781
0.01
0.81
19
893
0.00
Japan
142
2429
0.03
0.46
330
3617
South Korea
N.A
342
N.A
0.17
4
0.03
0.27
1
0.01
0.47
Spain
USA
India Taiwan
1220 12966 7
454
0
206 N.A
N.A
N.A
N.A
3
26.6
41.9 *
0.10
24.5
26.0
38.6
8.3
2.5
199.6
0.00
0.07
9.2
26.4
30.3
6.4
27.7
28
0.00
0.00
4.3
35.7
53.4
1.4
5.2
5.9
10.0
46.0
1.4
36.7
43.0
19.2
35.5
0.0
2.2
11.3
19.4
41.0
0.0
28.4
0.01
70.0
3.6
18.9
0.8
6.6
0.03
0.34
25.3
16.6
43.6
11.2
3.3
572.9
0.00
0.14
27.8
13.5
43.9
14.4
0.3
189
0.00
0.00
51.8
8.3
33.3
0.8
5.8
36.8
9.6
44.3
8.4
0.9
N.A 29
6.9
0.01
503.6
N.A
N.A 0.02
0.28
N.A
N.A
N.A
Production data from [2] Ratio of wind or solar power consumption [2] to current population [8] Produced from consumption data of [2] N.A : No available data due to negligible production * Only data of Belgium doesn’t exist, Luxemburg and Belgium are given together in [2] 2
2008 0.0
Germany
1
2000 2010
Rates in total primary energy consumption3 , % Nuclear Hydro Coal Natural Oil Energy Gas electric
