Investor Update February 2015
Contents Overview
Performance
2015 Outlook
Overview Performance 2015 Outlook
1
Oil Balance Thailand: Jan-Dec 2014
Adequate refining capacity maintains the stability of supply Overview
Performance
Supply Import (80%) 898 KBD
Production
Sales
Imported Refined Petroleum Products 93 KBD Crude/ Condensate 805 KBD
Crude/ Condensate Indigenous (20%) 221 KBD 228 KBD
2015 Outlook
Total Refining Capacity in Thailand: 1,082 KBD
Domestic
Refined Products 971 KBD*
877 KBD PTT’s Associated Refineries : 905 KBD (TOP, PTTGC, SPRC, IRPC, BCP)
Refined Products 200 KBD
(**)
Export
Other Refineries : 177 KBD (ESSO)
Crude Export 7 KBD Source: PTIT Remark :
207 KBD
(*)Refined product from refineries = 869 KBD, including domestic supply of LPG from GSPs and Petrochemical Plants = 102 KBD (**) Not included Inventory KBD = Thousand Barrels per day
2
Natural Gas Balance: Jan – Dec 2014 Main driver of the Thai economy Overview
Supply
Performance
2015 Outlook
Production
Sales Ethane/ Propane/ LPG/NGL
Gulf of Thailand (75%)
Others 42%
Chevron 29%
PTTEP 29%
(14%)
3,529 MMSCFD
Bypass Gas 1000 Onshore (3%) MMSCFD
960 MMSCFD (20%)
6 GSPs Total Capacity 2,740 MMSCFD @ Actual Heat
128 MMSCFD
LPG/NGL
Industry Household Transportation (6%)
Methane 1,569 MMSCFD
Power
Import (22%)
(59%)
Industry
LNG 18%
Myanmar 82%
Petrochemical Feedstock
NGV
(14%)
(7%)
1,034 MMSCFD
Remark: MMSCFD = Million Cubic Feet @ Heating Value 1,000 Btu/ft3
3
PTT is Thailand’s Largest Energy Company Overview
Performance
PTT Public Limited Company (“PTT”)
2015 Outlook Robust revenue and Net Income growth since IPO (MMUSD)
Largest company on Thai Stock exchange
87,223
Market cap ~US$56bn1 or ~ THB1.8 trillion1
1,716
Group companies:13.2%1 of Thai Stock Exchange market
capitalization
Revenue
12,553
29%
Majority owned by Thai government (66%) 51% by Ministry of Finance
Affiliate
Net Income 702
International exploration and production business with 777 1 2
mmboe of proved reserves in 2014 Sole operator and owner of gas transmission pipelines and GSPs in Thailand Largest refinery group in Thailand with stakes in 5 of 6 refineries in the country Largest petrochemical producer group in Thailand with stakes in 6 of 8 major petrochemical plants Leading oil marketing business with 1,396 retail stations and 40% 2 of market share by volume International oil trading business having traded 74.2 bn liters 2 in 2014 Coal business assets in Indonesia, Madagascar, and Brunei New Power Flagship (GPSC) to capture opportunity in neighboring ASEAN countries
As of 30 December 2014 : THB/US$ exchange rate of 32.50 As of December 2014
PTT
81%
Fully integrated and highly diversified over the entire O&G
value chain
71%
19%
15% by Vayupak Fund
2001 IPO
2014
International and local recognition
180th in 2014 144th in 2013 167th in 2012 171th in 2011
Thailand best borrower award 2014 Best CEO Best CFO Best Managed Company Best Corporate Governance Best Investor Relations Best Corporate Social Responsibility Best Commitment to Strong Dividend Policy
Platts Top 250 Global Energy Company
18th Overall Performance of 2013
84st Fortune Global 500 in 2014 81st in 2013 95th in 2012 128th in 2011
SET Awards Top Corporate
Governance Report Award 2010 & 2011
Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI)
Best Corporate Social
Responsibility Awards 2011 & 2012
DJSI Member 2013-2014 (Listed in 2011)
4
PTT’s Strategic Importance to Thailand Overview
Performance
Ministry of Finance holds majority stake in PTT
Public 34%
PTT ratings at Thai sovereign level
Thai Ministry of Finance 51%
• Foreign 17% • Thai 17%
2015 Outlook
Vayupak Fund1 15%
Kingdom of Thailand – FC
Baa1
BBB+
BBB+
A-
PTT – FC
Baa1
BBB+
BBB+
A-
PTT – LC
Baa1
BBB+
A-
A
Note: As of September 2014
Largest market cap on the Thai Stock Exchange PTT
PTTEP
PTTGC
TOP
IRPC
BCP
Total
Others
Market cap (BNUSD)2
28.5
13.7
7.1
2.6
1.9
1.3
56.0
370.3
% of SET
6.7%
3.2%
1.7%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
13.2%
86.8%
Moody’s rating
Baa1
Baa1
Baa2
Baa1
Ba1
N.A.
-
-
S&P rating
BBB+
BBB+
BBB
BBB
BB+
N.A.
-
-
1
The Vayupak Fund is a registered investment management fund in Thailand in which the Government is a major unit holder. The Government has rights of first refusal with respect to any of our shares to be sold by the fund. Although the fund’s shareholding may be considered to be beneficially owned by the Government under international standards, such shares 5 are not considered to be owned by the Government for the purposes of Thai law or our compliance with certain of our debt covenants 2 Based on data as of 30 December 2014/ THB/US$ exchange rate of 32.50
5
Our Major Businesses & Activities Overview
Intermediate
Upstream
Business Areas
E&P
Gas
New Business
Downstream
Oil Marketing
Performance Company
PTT’s holding (%)
Coal Power
Activities
PTTEP
65.29%
Exploration and Production
PTT PLC • Gas Pipeline • S&M • GSP
100% 100% 100%
Sole owner/operator of the Transmission pipeline Supply & Marketing of Natural Gas Extracting Hydrocarbon contents in NG for Petrochemical’s feedstock
• Oil Marketing
100%
Retail service Stations and commercial Marketing
• Int’l Trading
100%
Import/Export/Out-Out trading of petroleum and petrochemical products
PTTGC
48.89%
Petrochemical Flagship
TOP
49.10%
Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical
IRPC
38.51%
Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical
SPRC
36.00%
Stand alone Complex Refinery
BCP
27.22%
Complex Refinery & Retail Stations
Int’l Trading
Petrochemical & Refining
2015 Outlook
PTT Energy Resources 100%
Coal Business
GPSC
Power Flagship
6
30.10%
6
PTT Aspiration
Strategic direction and target to achieve “Big-Long-Strong” aspiration Overview
Performance
2015 Outlook
“Thai Premier Multinational Energy Company”
Strong TOP Quartile ROIC
Long
Big
Ranked Fortune 84th
Listed in DJSI since 2011
Technologically Advanced and Green National Oil Company 7
2014 Performance: PTT Group: Non recurring & stock loss pressured performance Overview
Performance
2015 Outlook
MMTHB
93,091 6,937
Refinery
Petrochem
PTTEP
8,125
17,009
Petrochem Refinery’s margin decreased 81%
11,366 25,311 17,796
Other Margin Income
FX gain
Aromatics: PX spread drop 28% OPEX* 23,414
Olefins spread improved, 20% 4,996
Share of 29,666 income Interest expense & income taxes
37,139
Nonrecurring items
PTTEP
40%
Sales vol. increased 10% Performance decreased mainly from recognition of impairment loss of assets, higher DD&A and operating expense
55,795 9,567 11,450
Gas GSP margin increased 38%
44%
GSM margin increased mainly from shortfall agreement
69%
Oil Margin and Vol increased 3% Performance decreased mainly from higher stock losses Trading Vol. decreased 2%
39,347 PTT
38%
28,454
Margin increased 32% from condensate business
Others Lower performance of other affiliates
mainly from PTTGE’s asset impairment
Others
2,364
2013 *including petroleum exploration expenses and royalties
1,178 -5,747
2014
50% 171%
Refinery Avg. A/C GIM decreased 59% Aggregate intake decreased 7%
8
Contents Overview
Performance
2015 Outlook
Overview Performance 2015 Outlook
9
E&P key accomplishments in 2014 Overview
Performance E&P
Production
Gas
Oil & Trading
2015 Outlook Refining
PetChem
Others
Strong production base from high-margin assets : 10% Growth
Maintain domestic production to support energy demand Successfully commenced gas production from Zawtika Ramp-up production from Montara to full potential
Operations
Gaining clarity on resource potential through continued exploration
Continued appraisal program in Zawtika, Myanmar M3 and Algeria HBR Kick-off Myanmar PSC-G & EP-2 exploration program Additional exploration discovery in Mozambique Area 1
Portfolio management
Active portfolio management for short-term and long-term growth
Financial management
Financially well-positioned against the oil price headwind
Strengthen domestic base through Hess Thailand acquisition Restructured oil sands business through KKD asset swap Expanding exploration horizon into Brazil high-potential areas
Recorded >4 bn USD operating cash flow from higher sales volume Strategic funding of 1.6 bn USD to strengthen capital structure Balance dividend payment and cash flow with 4.50 THB/share dividend 10 10
E&P Performance:
Lower net income in 2014 mainly from impairment loss of assets Overview
Performance E&P
Gas
2015 Outlook
Oil & Trading
Product Prices 100.19
25% 74.88
65.15 Weighted Avg.
13% 56.54
Liquid
($/BBL)
100.15
Refining
PetChem
Others
Sales Volume
5% 94.91
KBOED 325
3%
7% QoQ 347
104
108
221
239
Q3/14
Q4/14
65.58** 63.38**
10% YoY
293 101
322 105
Liquid
($/BOE)
Gas
($/MMBTU)
8.13 Q3/14
1% 8.06 Q4/14
1%
7.92*
8.03*
2013
2014
192
2013
217 Gas
2014
* Gas price, if excludes Vietnam 16-1 retroactive sale recording, is 8.07$ for 2014/ 8.01$ for 2013/ 7.98$ for Q4 13 ** Average selling price, if excludes Vietnam 16-1 retroactive sale recording is 63.59$ for 2014/ 66.09$ for 2013/ 66.46$ for Q4 13
Net Income (100%) QoQ
1,847
MMUSD
63% YoY
677
477 255% QoQ
Q3/14
-739
Q4/14
2013
Key Highlights
2014
• • •
Sales volume increased from Montara and Zawtika project Avg. price decreased in line with world oil price. Net income loss from lower price and recognition of impairment losses of assets in PTTEP Australasia project and Mariana Oil Sand project
YoY • Sales vol. increased mainly from full year sale of Montara, higher production of Contract 4 and first gas export from Zawtika. • Net income decreased mainly from non-recurring items due to impairment of assets, increase in write-off dry hole and DD&A
11
E&P Priorities in 2015
Adaptive to industry fundamental change Overview
Performance E&P
Implication
Gas
Oil & Trading
2015 Outlook Refining
PetChem
Others
Priorities in changing industry environment Deliver 6% volume growth as planned
Short term
Focus on cost optimization and investment prioritization Leverage strong balance sheet for value-creating growth opportunity
Medium term
Take a measured approach on our pre-development assets e.g. Mariana Oil Sands, Algeria HBR, Cash Maple Continue to focus on our core basins in the southeast Asia
Long term
Reassess long term aspiration
12
PTT EBITDA Performance: Overview
Performance
2015 Outlook
( Unit:MMTHB)
Business Segment
Q3/14
Q4/14
QoQ
Y2013
Y2014
YoY
15,840
9,680
(39%)
44,836
54,102
21%
• S&M
7,092
3,290
(54%)
18,436
20,456
11%
• TM
6,681
5,874
(12%)
24,984
26,071
4%
• GSP
5,190
3,637
(30%)
13,663
20,030
47%
• NGV
(5,082)
(4,865)
4%
(18,981)
(19,962)
(5%)
1,959
1,744
(11%)
6,734
7,507
11%
13,297
11,578
(13%)
Gas-EBITDA
• Others
Oil-EBITDA Trading*-EBITDA
Total**
3,126
(236) >(100%)
1,010
(331)
>(100%)
5,418
5,069
(6%)
19,976
9,113
(54%)
63,551
70,749
11%
*MIS ** Included Gas/Oil/Trading affiliates
13
13
Energy Price Reform: Blessing in Disguise Overview
Performance
Petroleum Products
Dubai
THB/Litre
New Gov.
USD/BBL
2015 Outlook
ULG 95 47.15
107.11
New Gov.
Total change -14.79 for ULG -13.33 for Gasohol95 -4.76 for Diesel
Gasohol95 39.63 33.96 Diesel 29.99
26.90
58.59 25.09
THB/Kg
LPG New Gov.
Industry 30.13
THB/Kg
NGV
New Gov.
15 13 .00
Private Car 10.50 10.50 THB/Kg 22.63
Auto 21.38 Cooking 18.13
Adjusted 4 times Total change +1.53 for Cooking +2.78 for Auto -5.91 for Industry
10
10.00
Public Car 8.50 8.50 THB/Kg
Adjusted 3 times Total change +2.50 for Private Car +1.50 for Public Car
14
Energy Price Reform: LPG Prices Overview
Performance E&P
Gas
Oil & Trading
2015 Outlook Refining
PetChem
Others
Lifted GSP Capped Price from 333 USD/TON to reflect GSP Cost
Imported 2.0 Mil. Ton (27%)
GSP 3.6 Mil. Ton (48%) Refinery 1.9 Mil. Ton (25%)
24.16 ฿/kg
CP+85 $/ton or 528 $/ton
498 $/ton
Tax 2.39 ฿/kg
488 $/TON or 16.11 ฿/kg
Margin 3.26 ฿/kg
Oil Fund 0.82 ฿/kg
Cooking VAT 1.58 ฿/kg
Transport Industrial
18.13 ฿/kg
CP-20 $/ton or Oil Fund 423 $/ton
*CP Jan’15= 443 $/ton
AS CLEARING HOUSE
Tax 2.39 ฿/kg
Margin 3.26 ฿/kg
No oil Fund
VAT 1.19 ฿/kg
Low income
Need subsidy 4.81 ฿/kg
LPG prices for Petchem : not controlled, but linked to market price and/or contract price
15
Gas Performance:
NG volume maintain growth under political uncertainty in Y2014 Overview
Performance E&P
Gas
2015 Outlook
Oil & Trading
MMSCFD
MMSCFD
2013
4,704
4,450
4,731
4,685
4,754
4,616
4,515
2014
4,802
4,497
4,469
AVG.
4,731
4,688 4,589 4,544
2012 4,291 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
* NG Sales Volume include Inter-BA Transaction
1% QoQ
8.87
8.79
Others
2% YoY
2% QoQ
4,802
319 689
316 653
945
4,589
4,688
307 640
317 NGV (7%) 655 Industry (14%)
1,034
930
959 GSP (20%)
681
695
611
699
SPP (15%)
932
1,034
873
852
IPP (18%)
1,165
1,070
1,228
1,206 EGAT (26%)
Q3/14
Q4/14
2013
2014
Key Highlights
NGV Sales Volume K.Ton/Day
PetChem
NG Customer Breakdown
NG Sales Volume*
4,768
Refining
3% YoY
QoQ
8.82
• •
8.54
NG volume increased mainly from higher IPP and GSP demand. Lower NGV sales volume from price adjustment.
YoY
Q3/14 Vol. MMCFD
319
Q4/14
2013
316
307
2014 317
•
NG volume increased mainly due to higher demand from SPP, GSP and industrial customers.
•
NGV sales volume slightly increased by 3%
16
Gas Performance :
Higher NG sales and stronger GSP Margin drove performance Overview
Performance E&P
Gas
Oil & Trading
1,620
1,604
1,459 1,448
832 577 391
382
1,572
1,516 1,487
1,544
842
786
403
389
Refining
PetChem
Others
GSP Sales Volume
GSP - Reference Product Prices USD/Ton
2015 Outlook
3% YoY
kTon
PP HDPE
9% QoQ
Naphtha Feed Cost*
1,598
333
333
333
333
162 532 184 720
Q3/14
Q4/14
2013
2014
Q3/14
LPG Capped
* Revised Feed cost due to re-calculated with GSP production volume instead of sale volume
1,734 244 597 179 714
Q4/14
6,197
6,392
727
819
Propane (13%)
2,075
2,106
Ethane (33%)
705
728
2,690
2,739
2013
2014
NGL (11%) LPG (43%)
Key Highlights
Gas - EBITDA 21% YoY
MMTHB
44,836 6,734 13,663
15,840
39% QoQ
1,959 5,190 6,681 7,092 (5,082)
9,680 1,744 3,637 5,874 3,290 (4,865)
Q3/14
Q4/14
*Restated
54,102 7,507 20,030
QoQ Others GSP
24,984
26,071
TM
18,436
20,456
S&M
(18,981)
2013*
(19,962) NGV
2014
• • •
Lower NGV loss from sale volume decrease GSPs performance declined from margin squeeze Gas BU’s EBITDA decreased from lower GSPs margin and conversion factor changed impacted COGS of GSM
YoY
• •
Better performance from Myanmar Gas shortfall and higher NG sales volume for SPP customer, better GSP’s margin, higher GSP sale volume More loss on NGV from increased volume
17
Gas BU:
Gas Consumption keep growing in line with GDP Growth Overview E&P
Performance Gas Oil & Trading
2015 Outlook Refining PetChem
Others
18
Oil Performance :
Stock loss hurts performance Overview
Performance E&P
Gas
2015 Outlook
Oil & Trading
Contribution Margin 1/
Refining
MM Liter
3% YoY
3% YoY 33% QoQ
0.80
0.82
1/
Q4/14
2013
2014 2
Excluded non–oil business
Oil - EBITDA MMTHB 13,297 11,578
108% QoQ
8,827 Oil
3,126
2,442 684 Q3/14
712 (948) (236) Q4/14
* EBITDA from Operating
24,657
5,943
6,209
Q3/14
Q4/14
2013
2014
/ Only PTT and PTTRM
Key Highlights 13% YoY
10,938
23,981 4% QoQ
0.51
Q3/14
Others
Sales Volume 2/
THB/Liter
0.77
PetChem
2,359
2,751
2013
2014
Non-Oil*
QoQ • Margin squeezed from stock loss and a drop in oil prices • Volume increased mainly from higher demand following lower oil prices • EBITDA turned negative mainly due to stock loss and and inventory losses from NRV YoY • Better margin mainly from high gasoline and aviation margin • Better sales volume mainly from gasoline and aviation • Better non-oil business performance following branch expansion • EBITDA decreased mainly from higher stock losses and inventory losses from NRV
19
Oil BU : Going Forward
Moving toward sustainable growth Overview
Performance E&P
Meeting Godji Family at PTT Life Station
Gas
2015 Outlook
Oil & Trading
Refining
PetChem
Others
Rank 24th in Platts Top 250 Global Energy Company Ranking 2014
Promoting substitute energy via distribution hub of Gasohol E85
20
20
Trading Performance :
Domestic condensate drives performance Overview
Performance E&P
Gas
2015 Outlook
Oil & Trading
Contribution Margin* THB/Liter
PetChem
Others
Sales Volume
32% YoY
14% QoQ
Refining
2% YoY
MM Liter
75,545
74,200
2013
2014
0.11 0.07
Q3/14
0.06
Q4/14
0.08
4% QoQ
2013
2014
20,429
19,527
Q3/14
Q4/14
* PTT only : FX Adjustment in compliance with Accounting Standard
Trading - EBITDA* MMTHB
Key Highlights 6% YoY
5,418
5,069
133% QoQ
1,010
Q3/14
(331) Q4/14
2013
* PTT only : FX Adjustment in compliance with Accounting Standard
2014
QoQ • Lower margins from higher condensate discount following lower crude oil prices • Sales volume decreased mainly from conservative crude trading during oil prices decline • EBITDA turns negative mainly from doubtful debt YoY • Margins surged from lower condensate discount rate • Lower sales volume mainly due to a drop in crude import • EBITDA decreased mainly from doubtful debt despite better margins
21
Refineries : Key Events 2014 Overview
Performance E&P
Gas
Oil & Trading
2015 Outlook Refining
PetChem
Others
Jun: CDU-3 Major Turnaround : 15 Jun- End July ~46 Days Aug: COD of key margin improvement products i.e. HVU-2 revamp, CDU-3 Preheat Train Mar: T/A 18 Mar - 9 Apr Jun: Fire incident in Vacuum Gas Oil Hydro Treating Unit (VGOHT):
VGOHT Unit: Reconstruction on schedule, expect start up Apr. 2015
Insurance claim: 1,710 MB in 2014
Sep: Dispute settlement between IRPC and Liaopairattana family Dec: JV with PCC Rokita SA, Poland Apr: COD Solar: Phase 3 (48 MW PPA) May: T/A 1May- 15 Jun (46 Days) scheduled Shutdown of Crude Distillation Unit (CDU) Jul: BCP acquired 81.41% shares of Nido Petroleum Limited following tender offers Aug: Purchase ordinary shares of 85% of “BCP Bioethanol” Dec: Purchase of shares in Galoc Production Company WLL by Nido Feb : Major Turnaround 8 Feb- 18 Mar (38 Days) Apr : 3 projects (FCCR revamp ,PGP recovery ,APH) to improve operations were completed Dec : The Cabinet approved COA Amendment
22
Refining Business Performance:
More stock losses and pressured Aromatics Overview
Performance Gas Oil & Trading
E&P
2015 Outlook Refining PetChem
Aromatics
GRM/GIM USD/BBL Dubai
101.5
105.5
74.4
4.29
3.77
0.83 A/C GIM A/C GRM
Stock Gain/Loss
4.75
4.75
3.10 1.17
Q3/14
Q4/14
2013
2014
-4.08
-11.23
0.55
-4.12
(2.40) (4.23)
QoQ BZ: 37% PX: 32% 327
13% QoQ 671
761
U-Rate (%)
Q3/14
Aggregated 85 U-Rate T/A (31 days ) TOP 85 IRPC
77
486
207
289
252
PX-ULG95 BZ-ULG95
Q3/14
Q4/14
2013
7% YoY 685
Q4/14
2013
2014
97
94
87
950% QoQ
84
84
2014
18,771
98 80
SPRC
103
103
104
91
BCP
81
85
83
72
180% YoY
9,316
4,650
4,652 3,977 826
381 22
102
268 279
Net Income (100%)
735
108
YoY BZ: 7% PX: 43%
371
Refinery Utilization Aggregated Intake (KBD)
82%
64%
A/C GIM: 60%
7.76
89%
89%
YoY
1.99
Mkt GRM
Aromatics Production
96.6
QoQ
A/C GIM: 221% 6.88
Others
712
(213) (2,175)
(2,489) (4,026)
(5,779) (6,479) (6,100)
(1,985) Q3/14
(20,847) 23 Q4/14
(6,367)
2013
(5,235)
(14,916) 2014
23
Petrochemical : Key Events 2014 Overview
Performance E&P
Gas
Oil & Trading
2015 Outlook Refining
PetChem
Others
Feb:
PTTGC had planned shutdown of Olefins Plant I-1 and unplanned shutdown of Plant I4-1.
Aug:
Purchased 34% of the registered capital in Vencorex from Perstorp, making % holding in Vencorex changed from 51% to 85%.
Sep:
ARO 2 (capacity 1.07 ton/year) had unplanned S/D.
•
Better PP spread than planned
•
Smooth Operation & no unplanned S/D
•
Smooth Operation & no unplanned S/D 24
Petrochemical Business Performance:
Stock loss and plummeted Aromatics offset by solid Olefins Overview
Performance E&P
Gas
2015 Outlook
Oil & Trading
Refining
Refineries CDU U-Rate
102%
101%
102%
91%
Mkt GRM
A/C GRM
Q3/14
5.14
0.98
2013
-2.92
-14.68
430
400
2014
101%
QoQ
0.84
Q4/14
2013
91%
Unit : MMTHB 34,625
HDPE-Naphtha: 20%
566 585
682 687
20,624 33,140
8,657 7,590
Q4/14
2013
2014
Q3/14
Q4/14
Others HMC
15,036 PTTGC
(3,652) -4,935
Q3/14
40% YoY
142% QoQ
PP-Naphtha: 17%
HDPENaphtha
2014
Net Income (100%) YoY
802 819
PPNaphtha
375 400
380
-4.36
90%
PP-Naphtha: 17%
691 698
PX:-Cond 28%
BZ-Cond
HDPE-Naphtha: 16%
USD/Ton
BZ-Cond: 1% 557
PX-Cond
Q3/14
94%
YoY
PX-Cond: 16%
479
Olefins Olefins U-Rate
81%
QoQ
320
Q4/14
90%
BZ-Cond: 26%
4.41
(7.69)
Stock Gain/Loss
63%
81%:A/C GRM 3.52
1.61
BTX 83% U-Rate
YoY
578%:A/C GRM 3.83
Others
Aromatics
QoQ
4.91
PetChem
25
2013
2014
25
Other Businesses : Coal - SAR (94.58%)
Cost reduction initiatives relieved effect from continuing coal price declined Overview
Performance E&P
Gas
2015 Outlook
Oil & Trading
Refining
kTon
USD/Ton
12% YoY
85 68
47
40
Q3/14
7116% 64 12%
6% 64 5% 59
Avg. Selling 62 Price (ASP) Cash Costs
11,187
73
37
Q4/14
2013
2,991
3% QoQ
42 11%
8%
2014
EBITDA 22% YoY NI 26% YoY 187.9
EBITDA 12% QoQ NI 1,200% QoQ
145.7
2,303
2,243
802 1,501
598 1,645
Q3/14
Q4/14
8,196
2013
9,845 Sebuku 3,072
6,773
Jembayan
2014
Key Highlights
EBITDA & Net Income (100%) MMUSD
Others
Sales Volume
Avg. Selling Price & Cash cost
New Castle
PetChem
QoQ
•
Cash cost improved from new contract negotiation with mining contractor and logistic contractor.
•
Sales volume slightly lower since lower coal sales at Sebuku to relieve impact during coal price down turn.
YoY 36.7 EBITDA
32.4
9.4
-1.1
Q4/14
2013
ASP dropped significantly but less than NEWC because of marketing initiatives to lock up price in spot contract before price going down further.
•
Net income decreased due to extra expenditure on tax settlement, Indo restructuring and write-off Project Cambodia.
7.0
NI 0.1
Q3/14
•
2014
26
Other Businesses : Power - GPSC (30.10%) Better performance supported by higher steam sales Overview
Performance E&P
Gas
2015 Outlook
Oil & Trading
Sales Volume GWh kTon
7,573 4%
4,496
Power 1,245 Steam Q3/14
1,789 1,553
4,981 11%
19% QoQ 521
2013
Others
2014
15% YoY
MMBaht
1,966 6% 1,279 3%
Q4/14
PetChem
Net Income* (100%)
7,850
2,102
Refining
Q3/14
424
Q4/14
2013
2014
*Adj.TFRIC 4
Capacity*
Key Highlights QoQ
MW
1,825 1,553 32 321
1,200
2013 *Power only (excluding Steam)
32 345
1,448
2014
Renewable Hydro
Conventional
• Lower power sales volume from Sriracha plant S/D and lower demand from EGAT. • Higher steam sales volume due to major customers back to normal operation • Performance dropped from lower EGAT selling price and power sales volume from Sriracha plant. YoY • Power sales volume dropped mainly from Sriracha plant because of lower demand from EGAT. • Steam sales volume increased mainly during Q2/14 due to higher sales to major customers. • Better performance from higher steam sales. 27
Other Businesses : Power – GPSC (30.10%)
Project update
Overview
Performance E&P
Gas
2015 Outlook
Oil & Trading
Refining
Others
PetChem
Key Activities 2014 All 7 assets transferred from PTT to GPSC
Highlight Planned Activities 2015
Addition 1,000MW during 5 Years
5 Years Investment plan
GPSC Initial Public Offering (IPO) Preparation • Completed its conversion into a public
2,701 MW
company limited as “Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited” (the
1,825 MW
“Company”) on 27 November 2014 • On Nov 28,2014 Submitted the registration statement (Form 69-1) and the prospectus (Form 72-1) to SET
2014
2015
2016
28
2017
2018
2019
28
PTT Consolidated Performance: 2014 Overview
Dubai (USD/BBL)
101.5
Performance 74.4
105.5
2015 Outlook
2013
96.6
2014 Others PTTEP 4% 8%
0.3% 2,842,408
Unit : MMTHB
2,834,732
15%
Revenue 757,619
Q3/14
7%
4%
17%
PTT - Gas 18%
Revenue 643,851
Q4/14
2013 228,541
PTT - Oil & Trading
2014
PTT - Oil & Trading Others 4% 4% PTT - Gas 22% EBITDA
4% 5%
251,025
20%
EBITDA
Q3/14
22%
EBITDA
51,854
Q4/14
70%
72%
10%
66,052
Revenue
71% 2013
70%
PTTEP
2014 Others 1% -10% 21%
Refining
209%
Net Income
40% 93,091
24,558
Q3/14
-26,649
Q4/14
2013
55,795
2014
9% 2% 18%
Net Income 31%
PetChem
17%
40%
29
PTT
PTTEP
Net Income 71%
29
Statement of Financial Position Overview
Performance
MMTHB
Decreased assets : • Dropped in A/R mainly from decreases in sales volume and selling price of an International Trading Business
1.4%
1,805,039 1,805,041 Cash & S/T Invest Other Current Assets
Others Noncurrent Assets
1,779,179 1,818,746
160,370
224,762
458,353
510,802 363,206
541,678
Other Liabilities
• Decrease in petroleum exploration and production assets of PTTEP due to assets swap of Canada Oil Sands KKD project and the impairment losses on assets of PTT Australasia project
453,484 566,881
12.0 L/T Liabilities (incl. due within 1 yr) 10.0
10.5 1.4
8.0
0.4
6.0 2013 PP&E
739,785
867,342
822,842
720,335
Total Equity
4.0 * ICR3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 Net Debt/EBITDA ≤ 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.5 Net Debt/Equity≤ 1.0 0.0
13.6
14.0
267,201
471,395
2015 Outlook
2014
*ICR = (Net cash flow from operating activities +Taxes paid from operating activities) divided by Interest paid from financing activities
PTT Ratings at Sovereign Level − FC
: Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+), JCR (A-), FITCH (BBB+)
131 13132 31Dec Dec
3
4 3130 5 Sep14 14 Dec
− LC
: Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+), JCR (A), FITCH (A-)
30
Dividend Policy & Historical Payments PTT is firmly committed to pay dividend at no less than 25% of net income Overview
Performance
2015 Outlook
43.6% 40.4% 34.7% 34.9% 35.5% 40.0% 32.4% 32.6% 29.8% 30.1% 30.3% 30.8% 33.0% Baht / share
30.57
37.24 36.58
34.14 34.82 29.58
22.40 18.33 13.43 7.71 8.75 2.50 2.85 4.00
21.06
payout
25%
PTT’s minimum payout ratio
25%
56.9% Dividend
32.52
19.33
13.00 13.00 13.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.25 9.25 8.00 8.50 6.75 5.00
EPS
DPS
6.00 Interim
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 31
PTT: CAPEX (PTT and Wholly Owned Subsidiaries) PTT plans to invest ~Bt 327bn* ($10bn) during 2015-2019 Overview
Performance
2015 Outlook
CAPEX Breakdown : 5 Years By Business Unit
Unit: MMTHB
JV & Investment in Subsidiaries 29%
Infrastructure Investment in Joint Venture and Its subsidiaries R&D and Others Oil and International Trading Natural Gas
LNG 17%
M&A and Investment Oversea 12%
Gas 50%
R&D, Others 4%
Infrastructure 2%
85,480 5,519
64,648
LNG, M&A and Investment Oversea 29,975 LPG import facility
5,472 9,629
4th pipeline & extension
34,885
2015
19
38,085 22 8,928 3,970 5,767 19,398
2016
19,654 1,882 9,217
70,931 16 17,057 959 12,891
Oil & Trading 15%
67,407 7
18,147 1,219 11,283
33,876
40,008
36,571
2017
2018
2019
32
32
Contents Overview
Performance
2015 Outlook
Overview Performance 2015 Outlook
33
Economic Outlook : Challenges Ahead For Y2015 Overview
Performance
2015 Outlook
Greece out of EU ?? 1€ = 1$ ?? EU market: Aggressive ECB Stimulus : EU Economic impact of QE : Risk of stagnation and prolonged deflation Russia Economy under pressure from western sanction and falling oil price
China market: Slowing down for sustainable growth
US Market : Economy Expands to boost consumer spending
: Low inflation allows easing monetary policies
: US Economic Recovery Consumer spending expansion from declining global oil price : Fed plans to increase interest rates in Y2015
: IMF revised Chinese GDP Forecast down to 6.8% in Y2015 Continuing to face slumping Chinese real-estate market
Thailand market: Govt. stimulus package will boost economy : Government investment will drives Thai economy growth Clarity in government policy helps to lift private sector’s confidence : Delays in infrastructure spending will delays investment project
AEC market : Robust Economic Growth : IMF uplifted forecast ASEAN-5 GDP growth in 2015 around 5.2% : Exchange rate volatility
PTT Performance: Brighten future : Unlocked PTT pendulums (LPG, NGV, Non-productive investment) : Uncertainty on oil price 7 / 18
34
Henry Hub / JKM Price Outlook: Gas Price trend to move lower from higher supply Overview
Performance
2015 Outlook
US LNG Export Terminal Projects
LNG Global Demand/Supply Excess Supply expected in L-T
Henry Hub Natural Gas Price Forecast
Japan-Korea Market Price Forecast
Average HH price 2014 = 4.26$/MMBtu
Average JKM price 2014 = 14.89 $/MMBtu
EIA’s projected HH Price in 2015 is 3.05 $/MMBTU
Factors to watch
Growth in shale production Lower-than-expected heating demand and higher natural gas production
Source : Short term 2014 Outlook, July 2014 EIA, Street Research, Bloomberg and PTT
Factors to watch Higher spot LNG cargo in market due to high temperature than normal in Japan during winter season Korea Nuclear Reactor will be allowed to restart
Expected JKM price 2015 = 7-9 $/MMBtu Current price @ 6.80 $/MMBtu
35
Crude Oil Outlook:
Overwhelming supply pressure oil price Overview
Performance
2015 Outlook
World Oil Demand/Supply Balance
surplus
surplus
surplus
Shortage
“OPEC spare capacity trend to rises in 2015 However, rising geopolitics and falling oil rig count helped a price rebound”
Source: Barclays , IEA
Crude Oil Price Forecast in Y2015 range bound 50-60 $/bbl
2014 Dubai $96.6/bbl
USD/bbl
110
Dubai Forecast Y2015 Range $50-60/bbl
90 70 45.0144.52
50 30 Jan-14
44.17
55.04 51.19 45.50 47.03
64.26 63.04 60.38 57.79
Factors to watch Geopolitical risk remain high Reduction of the US oil rig count
Peak Global refinery maintenance in Q2’15 Slowdown of the Chinese economy
Apr-14 WTI
Jul-14 Brent
Oct-14 Dubai
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Dubai Forecast (PTT Group PRISM)
Source: (PTT Group) Estimated (02.02.2015)
Oct-15 Column2
36
Refinery Margin Outlook :
Refinery margin remains stable during harvest season Overview
Performance
CDU Additional Vs Additional Demand –AP&ME
2015 Outlook
Refinery Maintenance in Asia-Pacific Area
Supply Growth Demand Growth
Note: Adjusted capacity based on start-up period (Effective additional capacity) Source: FACTs Semi Annual Reports, October 2014, reuters, Bloomberg, TOP estimate
Jan-14
“Expected new barrels from AP/ME are expected to continually flood the petroleum product market”
Feb-14
Forecast
20.0
GO
USD/bbl
15.0
Mogas
10.0 5.0 0.0
Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14
Nov-14 Dec-14
Factors to watch Upcoming US driving Season in Q2’2015 Spring refinery maintenance in Region and US
Less Mogas demand after Indonesia and Malaysia cut subsidies
-10.0 -15.0 Jan-14
Jul-14
Yanbu and Ruwais refineries ramp up in Q2’2015
FO
-5.0
V
“Asian Refineries will start going under maintenance and will be peak mid-May.”
Singapore GRM Forecast in Y2015 to be around 6-7$/bbl 25.0
Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Source: FACTS, DB, KBC, Reuters , IEA, Reuters, Thaioil and PRISM Estimated (July 2014)
37
Petrochemical Outlook : Olefin spread stable from restocking after Chinese New Year Overview
Performance
Asia Ethylene Supply/Demand Balance
2015 Outlook
Availability
Asia Propylene Supply/Demand Balance
Olefins Product Spread Y 2015
USD/Ton
800 600
HDPE-Naphtha expected to be around 590-730 USD/TON
•
PP-Naphtha expected to be around 610-660 USD/TON
Factors to watch in 2015 Anticipated increase demands in US, China and Indonesia
400
Ample supply amid generally high cracker run-rates in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, and New Capacity 6.7M Ton come on stream
Spread HDPE Source: HIS, ICIS and PRISM
Jul-15
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
200 0
•
Spread PP
Fluctuation in upstream feedstock prices, buyers deferred any unnecessary purchases to keep inventories at low level
38
Petrochemical Outlook: Expect PX margin to recover from Lunar New Year Demand 2015 Outlook
Availability
Performance
Availability
Overview
Aromatics Product Spread 800
USD/Ton
600
Bz-Naphtha forecasted to be around 160-290 USD/TON
•
PX-Naphtha forecasted to be around 310-420 USD/TON
Factors to watch in 2015 Anticipated increase demands due to positive boost on America's economy, and new downstream plans start up in China
400
Spread BZ Source: HIS, ICIS and PRISM
Jul-15
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
200
0
•
Spread PX
Ample supply in Asia as a result from new plant start up Buyers are wait-and-see for the prices to be stabilize
39
Thank you PTT Public Company Limited – Investor Relations Department Tel. +66 2 537-3518, Fax. +66 2 537-3948, E-mail:
[email protected] Website: http://www.pttplc.com
Disclaimer The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. In addition, such information contains projections and forward-looking statements that reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and uncertainties. No assurance is given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially from those projected. Petroleum Reserves and Resources Information In this presentation, the Company discloses petroleum reserves and resources that are not included in the Securities Exchange and Commission of Thailand (SEC) Annual Registration Statement Form 56-1 under “Supplemental Information on Petroleum Exploration and Production Activities”. The reserves and resources data contained in this presentation reflects the Company’s best estimates of its reserves and resources. While the Company periodically obtains an independent audit of a portion of its proved reserves, no independent qualified reserves evaluator or auditor was involved in the preparation of reserves and resources data disclosed in this presentation. Unless stated otherwise, reserves and resources are stated at the Company’s gross basis. This presentation may contain the terms “proved reserves”, “probable reserves”, and/or “contingent resources”. Unless stated otherwise, the Company adopts similar description as defined by the Society of Petroleum Engineers. Proved Reserves - Proved reserves are defined as those quantities of petroleum which, by analysis of geological and engineering data, can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be commercially recoverable, from a given date forward, from known reservoirs and under current economic conditions, operating methods, and government regulations. Probable Reserves - Probable reserves are defined as those unproved reserves which analysis of geological and engineering data suggests are more likely than not to be recoverable. Contingent Resources – Contingent resources are defined as those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, 40 to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable. The reasons for non commerciality could be economic including market availability, political, environmental, or technological.
Debt Profile : Control Cost & Manage Risk
Managed debt according to financial risk and policy
Debt Portfolio Unit : MMTHB
Consolidated
PTT Only : Cost of debts ~ 4.57 % : % fixed-rate ~ 77.35 % : Avg. debt life ~ 8.25 years
USD
: Cost of debts ~ 4.41 % : % fixed-rate ~ 74.99 % : Avg. debt life ~ 7.69 years
THB 436,708
288,171 100,069
307,371 125,972
(35%)
(41%)
188,102
181,399
(65%)
31 Dec 12
(59%)
31 Dec 13
288,948
467,963
449,722
215,507
259,665
230,390
(49%)
(55%)
(51%)
221,201
208,298
219,332
103,024 (36%)
185,924 (64%)
31 Dec 14
(51%)
31 Dec 12
(45%)
31 Dec 13 41
(48%)
31 Dec 14
Note : Data as of 31 Dec 14 (THB/USD = 33.1132 THB/JPY = 0.276511) Excluding liabilities from finance leases; Cost of debts includes withholding tax.
41
PTT Group Performance : 2014 (YoY) Performance 100%
% share
Y2013 (Restated) 28,454
39,347
38%
65.29%
37,139
11,450
-69%
-55%
48.89%
16,825
7,007
-58%
5,588
276%
40-50%
184
2,560
1291%
34,625
20,624
-40%
17,009
9,567
-44%
9,316
-4,026
-143%
49.10%
4,209
-1,903
-145%
- IRPC
826
-5,235
-734%
38.51%
1,265
-1,980
-257%
- SPRC
3,977
-6,367
-260%
36.00%
1,393
-2,051
-247%
- BCP
4,652
712
-85%
27.22%
1,258
187
-85%
18,771
-14,916
-179%
8,125
-5,747
-171%
-2,701
-5,600
-107%
100%
-2,770
-5,586
-102%
35% 50-100%
2,475
3,596
45%
20-30%
628
866
38%
Unit : MMTHB PTT Net operating Income - PTTEP E&P - PTTGC - HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/ PTTES/ PTTME/PTTMCC/PMMA
Petrochemical - TOP
Refining
Y2013 (Restated) 28,454
Y2014
YoY
39,347
38%
56,155
21,490
-62%
33,140
15,036
1,485
Equity Method % PTT Y2014
YoY
Inter
- PTTER, PTTGE
Gas
-PTTNGD/ TTM(T)/ TTM (M)/ PTTLNG
3,615
4,893
Utilities
-GPSC/ TP/ DCAP/ CHPP/ BIP/ BIC/ NNEG
1,376
2,982
2,361
2,217
-6% 33-100%
2,031
2,302
13%
4,651
4,492
-3%
2,364
1,178
-50%
Shared of Net Income from Affiliates
114,202
31,690
-72%
64,637
16,448
-75%
PTT Conso. Net Income
142,656
71,037
-50%
93,091
55,795
-40%
Oil & Oth. - PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/PTTRB/Others Others Business
117%
42
42
PTT Group Performance : Q4/14 (QoQ) Performance 100%
% share
Unit : MMTHB
Q3/14
Q4/14
PTT Net operating Income - PTTEP E&P
12,209
2,237
-82%
15,284
-24,415
-260%
- PTTGC
7,590
-4,935
- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/ PTTES/ PTTME/PTTMCC/PMMA
1,067
Equity Method % PTT Q3/14
Q4/14
12,209
2,237
-82%
65.29%
7,846
-16,117
-305%
-165%
48.89%
3,907
-2,266
-158%
1,283
20%
40-50%
494
536
9%
8,657
-3,652
-142%
4,401
-1,730
-139%
-2,175
-6,479
-198%
49.10%
-1,078
-3,206
-197%
- IRPC
22
-5,779
-26368%
38.51%
43
-2,210
-5240%
- SPRC
-213
-6,100
-2764%
36.00%
-1
-2,012
-201100%
381
-2,489
-753%
27.22%
90
-685
-861%
-1,985
-20,847
-950%
-946
-8,113
-758%
-894
-3,315
-271%
100%
-962
-3,323
-245%
1,014
605
-40%
20-30%
307
116
-62%
-127% 33-100%
689
-324
-147%
Petrochemical - TOP
- BCP
Refining
QoQ
QoQ
Inter
- PTTER, PTTGE
Gas
-PTTNGD/ TTM(T)/ TTM (M)/ PTTLNG
1,393
786
-44% 50-100%
Utilities
-GPSC/ TP/ DCAP/ CHPP/ BIP/ BIC/ NNEG
1,040
396
-62%
789
-214
2,328
-2,347
-201%
1,048
-2,926
-379%
Shared of Net Income from Affiliates
24,284
-51,261
-311%
12,349
-28,886
-334%
PTT Conso. Net Income
36,493
-49,024
-234%
24,558
-26,649
-209%
Oil & Oth. - PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/PTTRB/Others Others Business
43
43
Statements of Consolidated Cash Flows
Investing
2013 -95,264
2014 -144,061
55,795
CAPEX(PP&E, Intangible asset)
-114,457
-128,452
-25,218
11,545
Investment (Sub. &Affiliates)
-11,255
-26,854
Income Tax
-45,822
-49,826
Dividend/Interest Received
18,488
13,882
Non-Cash Adjustment
127,702
199,093
Others
11,960
-2,637
15,754
18,760
2013 165,507
2014 235,367
93,091
Changes in assets & liabilities
Operating Net Income
Interest-net
Financing Free Cash flow 70,243
91,306
-56,070
-47,315
Repayment Loans
-77,005
-49,559
Interest paid
-20,089
-20,980
Dividend paid
-46,368
-48,837
280
32,335
87,112
39,726
Received from share issue Received from loans/Bonds Adjustment 6,586
Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents 136,924
157,683
2,111
Cash In/(Out) 20,759
46,102
44
Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents
157,683
203,785
44
Statements of Cash Flows (PTT Only)
Operating Net Income Changes in assets & liabilities Income Tax Non-Cash Adjustment Interest - net
2013 42,991
2014 83,504
63,276
44,256
CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset)
-12,069
17,966
-2,276
2013 17,080
2014 -19,430
-22,912
-31,639
Investment (Sub. &Affiliates)
-4,281
-3,905
-2,553
Dividend/Interest Received
37,880
32,969
-14,094
15,834
Others
6,393
-16,855
8,154
8,001
Investing
Financing Free Cash flow 60,071
64,074
-43,712
-69,983
Repayment Loans
-56,252
-27,963
Interest paid
-13,472
-12,801
Dividend paid
-37,116
-39,985
-
-
63,128
10,766
Received from share issue
Received from loans/Bonds Adjustment -73
Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents 47,641
63,927
-
Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents
Cash In/(Out) 16,286
-5,909
45
63,927
58,018
45
Data as of 31 December 2014
E&P and Gas Business Group Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Exploration & Production Plc. PTTEP 65.29% PTT Natural Gas Distribution Co., Ltd. PTTNGD 58.00% PTT LNG Co., Ltd. PTTLNG 100.00% Joint Ventures
Proportionate 50.00% 50.00% 35.00%
Trans Thai-Malaysia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. TTM (T) Trans Thai-Malaysia (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. TTM (M) District Cooling System and Power Plant DCAP
Associates Thai Oil Power Co., Ltd. Global Power Synergy Co., Ltd
TP GPSC
Equity 26.00% 30.10%
Subsidiaries PTT (Cambodia) Co., Ltd. Subic Bay Energy Co., Ltd. PTT Retail Business Co., Ltd. Thai Lube Blending Co., Ltd. PTT Tank Terminal Co., Ltd. PTT Oil Myanmar Co., Ltd.
Consolidate PTTCL 100.00% SBECL 100.00% PTTRB 100.00% TLBC* 48.95% PTTTANK 100.00% PTTOM 100.00% Equity 40.00% 40.40% 35.00%
Others Cost PetroAsia (Maoming) Co., Ltd. PA(Maoming) 20.00% PetroAsia (Sanshui) Co., Ltd. PA(Sanshui) 25.00% Intoplane Services Co., Ltd. IPS 16.67% Fuel Pipeline Transportation Co., Ltd.FPT 0.00024%
International Trading Business Group PTTT
Petrochemical Subsidiaries PTT Polymer Marketing Co., Ltd. PTT Polymer Logistics Co., Ltd. PTT PMMA Co., Ltd.
Consolidate PTTPM 50.00% PTTPL 100.00% PTTPMMA 100.00%
Associates PTT Global Chemical Plc. PTT Maintenance and Engineering
Associates Keloil-PTT LPG Sdn. Bhd. KPL Thai Petroleum Pipeline Co., Ltd.THAPPLINE PetroAsia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. PA(Thailand)
Others Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services Plc. BAFS
Subsidiaries PTT International Trading Pte.
Petrochemicals & Refining Business Group
Oil Business Group
Fair Value 7.06%
PTT Energy Solutions Co., Ltd.
Equity PTTGC 48.89% PTTME 40.00% PTTES 40.00%
Joint Ventures HMC Polymers Co., Ltd. PTT Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. PTT MCC Biochem Co., Ltd.
Proportionate HMC 41.44% PTTAC 48.50% PTTMCC 50.00%
Refining Associates Thai Oil Plc. IRPC Plc. Star Petroleum Refining Co., Ltd. Bangchak Petroleum Plc.
TOP IRPC SPRC BCP
Equity 49.10% 38.51% 36.00% 27.22%
International Investment Subsidiaries PTT Energy Resources Co., Ltd. PTT Green Energy Pte. Ltd
Consolidate 100.00%
PTTER PTTGE
Consolidate 100.00% 100.00%
Others Subsidiaries Consolidate Energy Complex Co., Ltd. EnCo 50.00% Business Service Alliance Co., Ltd. BSA * 25.00% PTT Regional Treasury Center Pte. Ltd. PTTRTC 100.00%
Associates PTT ICT Solutions Co., Ltd.
PTTICT
Equity 20.00%
Others Dhipaya Insurance Plc.
TIP
Fair Value 13.33%
46 Remark :
* Subsidiaries that PTT holds less than 50% but being consolidated because PTT has the power to control the financial and operating policies.
46
Natural Gas Price Structure : Jan-Dec 2014
Gas prices are mostly agreed under long-term contracts and volatility pass-through to ensure stable returns.
Customers1
Sales Price Structure Gas Pool Price
+
Supply Margins
+
Pipeline Tariffs
Power Producers 59% : EGAT
27%
: IPP
17%
: SPP
15%
GSP
20%
1.75% Average Purchased Gas Price
1.75%
21.9 Bt/MMBtu
9.33% Charged at the same price structure of power producers
Petrochemicals Feedstocks Ethane, Propane, LPG
Profit-sharing mechanism based on market prices of petrochemicals
NGL
Reference to Naphtha market price
Local Cooking Gas
Capped at 333 USD/ton
Export Cooking Gas
Reference to Saudi Aramco’s contract price
Industry NGV
14%
Charged at prices comparable to fuel oil
7%
Capped at 12.5 Baht/Kg from Dec 2014
• Contract periods are ~ 25-30 years or until depletion of gas fields or the expiration of concessions 1 As at Jan, 2015
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Natural Gas : Strong and Increasing Demand over Long Term
Natural gas is a fuel of choice for power producers and transportation industry
Source : PTT
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Thailand’s Projected Energy Demand Primary Energy Consumption
KBD
Nuclear 1% Hydro/Import 4% 12% Renewable
2,841
3500
2,307
3000
1,917 2% 13% 15%
Oil 2029
26% 2028
27%
2027
Natural Gas
2026
32%
2025
35%
2024
2023
2022
28% 2021
32%
2020
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
32%
2014
500
2019
39%
2018
40%
38%
1000
22%
18%
2017
1500
25% Coal/Lignite
14%
2016
2000
3% 13%
3% 12%
2% 12%
2015
2500
0
3,701
3,281
4000
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Source : EPPO/ PDP 2010 Revised 3 (June 2012)/ PTT analysis as of 04 Nov 2014
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Gas Business Generates Stable Returns 2014 Year in Review
Gas transmission pipeline capacity
Sole owner and operator of entire gas transmission pipelines in Thailand (3,678 km), a regulated business • IRROE ranges between
Phu Hom
12.5% - 18% for transmission pipeline investment Supply & marketing of natural gas provides fixed margin with long-term contracts of 25-30 years
Thailand Yadana
Ban I Tong The Luang
Nam Phong
Nakhon Ratchasima
Kaong Khoi
Wang Noi NBK
Yetagun
6 Gas Separation Plants; Total production 6.7 MTA; are on petrochemical market price-linked profit sharing basis
Nakhon Sawan
Ratchaburi SBK
Samut Prakan ESB
Bang Pakong
Chon Buri
Rayong
Andaman Sea
Benchamas Tantawan Platong Chevron–Additional Arthit–FPSO Erawan Arthit
Khanom
Pailin
Bongkot South Bongkot
Natural gas fields Thai-Malaysia (JDA)
Songkhla Sadao
Power plants Gas separation plant 1,2,3,5,6 in Rayong Gas separation unit 4 in Nakhon Si Thammarat Existing pipeline Future pipeline
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