Relações De Curto e Longo Prazo Entre as Economias Dos Estados: Bahia, Pernambuco e Ceará: 1970-2000

This paper considering the possibility of cointegration between the GSP (Gross State Product) for the three largest economies of Brazilian Northeast: Bahia, Ceará and Pernambuco, with date of respective GSP in period of 1970 to 2000, estimated the relationship of short and long run. The following tests and models were used: The ADF Unit Root Test; The Johansen Cointegration Test; The Vector Error Correction Model, The Exogeneity Test and The Variance Decomposition of Prediction, besides The Impulse Response Functions. In the short run, the Ceará'GSP tend to eliminate the transitory unbalances more quickly than Bahia'GSP. Trough of the exogeneity test verified that Pernambuco'GSP not influence the Bahia'GSP but the Bahia'GSP influence the Pernambuco'GSP and the Ceará'GSP. The analysis of decomposition of prediction error