Propuesta de modelo matemático para la estimación de la producción de acero bruto de China entre 2009 y 2012 considerando diversos escenarios

In order to estimate China crude steel production from 2009 to 2012 considering several scenarios, it was used various reliable sources of historical information for variables that are considered relevant to the achievement of the objectives, these variables are: China crude steel production (PAB), China fixed assets investment with respect to current gross domestic product (IAF/PIBcorriente), China gross domestic product per capita (PIBpc), annual variation of China urban population (∆PU) and China intensity of consumption (IC). By  means of multiple and simple linear regression analysis it was built a central model and four submodels that support the first; it was getting that model proposed explains China crude steel production by 98,91% from the independent variables: IAF/PIBcorriente, PIBpc, ∆PU and IC, all this with a confidence interval of 95%; on the other hand, the implementation of this model in several scenarios concluded that there will be no significant alterations of China crude steel production levels in 2009-2012 period.