Probabilidad Y Leyes De Los Grandes Números

"In many different fields, the empiric phenomenons seem to obey certain general law that is necessary to call the Law of the Big Numbers.This law says that the derived numeric proportions of the observation of a very big number of similar events it practically remains constant, provided that these events are partly governed by constant factors, partly for variable factors whose variations are irregular and they don’t cause a systemic change in a defined address.Certain values of these proportions are characteristic of each class of events given. When the longitude of the series of observations increasing the derived proportions of those observations they approach more and more to those characteristic constants. One can hope it reproduces them exactly if it were possible to make series of observations of infinite longitude".With regard to my position today, I can justify it from two different points of view. The first one says that, "it depends on the positions that I have occupied in the past, pondered by the influence that they havepresently, and of a present interference caused by external aleatory factors, independent of my past."The second says that, "it is the result of the means in which I live and of infinite aleatory and independentinterferences that have affected me in the past, pondered by the influence that this interferences have in my present".Both positions are surely certain, being necessary to fuse them with the care and hierarchy that each argument deserves, depending only and exclusively of the phenomenon to the one that is planned to apply.El primer párrafo fue tomado de una traducción en inglés en la introducción de un ejemplar del tratado de Poisson. El segundopárrafo es la interpretación que la profesora Emilia Correa, de la Universidad Nacional de Colombia, sede Medellín, da al modeloARIMA, en sus notas del curso series de tiempo, primera edición octubre 2.000.