POLITICAL SCIENCES

Polling the Citizenry
02/12/2015
Saeed Mohamadi
Democracy (Opinion Curves)
Skewed: A distribution with its peak well to one side. (Stable Curve) "Should we go to war against terrorism?"

Democracy (Opinion Curves)
Unimodal: A single, center-peaked distribution; a bell-shaped curve. "Where do you place yourself idiologocally left, right, or center?"

Public Opinion Poll
How a small sample can give an accurate picture of a nation's views. People can be for, against, or undecided about an issue, but the factors of uncertainty and changeability are so prominent in many areas.

Polarize: To drive opinion into a bimodal distribution.
Survey: A public opinion poll.
Quota: Drawing a sample to match categories of the population.

Polling Techniques
Selecting a sample: In deciding whom to sample, the pollsters have two major approaches:
1. The stratified "quota" sampling, that tries to include a proportionally representatives cross section of the society.
2. Random sampling with no picking and choosing among dozens of categories.
Randomization: Drawing a sample at random with every one having an equal chance of inclusion.

Polling Techniques

Reaching the sample: Polling is expensive and pollsters try to economize it but the least expensive methods are the least accurate as well. (Like on the phone, online surveys)
Problems: Many people ignore phone calls. Many people do not have access to the internet at the time.
Asking the Questions: The unbiased wording questions to avoid slanting responses is important. The pollsters must avoid tones of voice or sympathetic looks that might encourage one response over another.

Polling Reliability
Public Opinion Surveys are generally reliable, provided that the limits be recognized in the society.

Volatility: Tendency of public opinion to change quickly.
Independent Variables: The factors you think influence or cause something to happen.
Dependent Variables: The factors that change under the impact of the independent variables.
Covariance: How much two factors change together, indicating how strongly they are related.
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Almond's Three Publics
In 1950 the American people and foreign policy , political scientist "Gabriel Almond" proposed that there are three American public opinion:
1. A general public of a majority that does not know or care about much beyond their immediate concerns. 2. An attentive public of a majority who are among the better educated and who follow more abstract political concerns.
3. A policy and opinion elite of a few highly influential people who are involved in politics, often professionally.
Democracy (Opinion Curves)
Bimodal: A distribution with two large clusters at the extremes and a small center. (Extreme Division) "Are you pro-choice or pro-life?"

Factors Producing Public-opinion Views
Age: There are two theories on how age affects political opinions, the "Life cycle" and the "Political generations".
Life cycle: Theory that opinions change as people age.
Political generations: Theory that great events of young adulthood permanently color political views.
Gender: Even before the women's movement, gender made a difference in politics. In Catholic countries women were more conservative and concerned with family and morality, but as the society modernizes, men's and women's views change.
Gender Gap: Tendency of American women to vote more Democrat then do men.
Factors Producing Public-opinion Views
Ethnic Groups: Ethnicity is related to Region and Religion, but sometimes plays a distinct role of its own, especially in the multi-ethnic United States. Ethnic politics changes over the decades.
Elite and Mass opinion: There is often a gap between Elite and Mass opinions. Mass public does not understand much about complicated issues but can react after decisions have been made. Elites, educated and influential people, usually have more complex and sophisticated perspectives.

Anecdotal and Survey Evidence
Public Opinion: Citizens' reactions to current, specific issues and events.
It refers to political and social issues not private matters.
It is linked to the Political Culture but not the same. It does not imply that citizens have strong , clear, or united convictions.
It often shows widespread ignorance. It is important in a democracy, but it is often ignorant, fickle, and untrustworthy.
Government often try to create the public opinion they desire.
It can be led or manipulated by interest groups. Any government is vulnerable to public opinion( Gandhi).

Anecdotal and Survey Evidence

Political Culture: It focuses on long-standing values, attitudes, and ideas that people learn deeply. Americans believe that "Democracy" is the only just form of government.
Anecdotal: Refers to recounting the views of a few respondents. It is a poor indication of public opinion as there is no way of knowing if it is truly representative or not.
Sample: Those persons to be interviewed in a survey, as a small fraction of a population.

Democracy (A short history of Polling)
1824, Harrisberg Pennsylvanian asked passersby whether they would vote for John Quincy or Adam Jackson. They called this unscientifically poll "straw in the wind"
1936, first year of newly developed "scientific polling". The new technique used by Gallup was to select a sample as representative, rather than as large as possible. The scientific sampling method had dominated the field since then with a generally successful record.
1948, scientific polling failed when almost every poll predicted Thomas E. Dewey would defeat Harry S. Truman, but Truman won.
2012, aggregating surveys made polling more accurate.
Agenda
Anecdotal and Survey Evidence
Democracy (A Short History of Polling)
Factors Producing Public-opinion Views
Almond's Three Publics
Democracy (Opinion Curves)
Public Opinion Poll
Polling Techniques
Is polling reliable?

Factors Producing Public-opinion Views
Social Mobility: The raise and fall of people into another social class.
Education: Educational level is related to social class, and this contributes to polarization. Those with college degrees win the big bucks in finance, while those without have to scramble.
Non-Economic issues: Questions relating to patriotism, religion, race, sexuality, and personal choice.
Economic issues: Questions relating to jobs, income, taxes, and welfare benefits.
Regions: Portions of a country with a sense of self and sometimes cultural differences. A country's outlaying regions usually harbor resentment against the capital, creating what are called "Center-periphery Tensions".
Factors Producing Public-opinion Views
Religion: The most explosive issue in politics and contributes a great deal to the structuring of a public opinion. In Germany, Catholics tend to vote to Christian Democrat party, but Protestant to Social Democrat party.
1980s, the raise of "Religious Rights" brought a "God Gap" into U.S. politics.
2012, two-third of Churchgoers voted to Mitt Romney.
Anti-clericalists: Movement in Catholic countries to get Church out of politics.

Factors Producing Public-opinion Views
Salience: The importance of given issues in public opinion or the characteristics of the public holding various opinions. The degree to which categories and issues affect the public opinion of a country.
Social Class: A broad layer of society, usually based on income and often labeled lower, middle, and upper. It can be hard to measure. Two major ways:
1. Objective: asks people their annual income or judges the quality of their neighborhood.
2. Subjective: asks respondents what their social class is, which sometimes diverges from objective criteria.
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