Nagorno Karabakh Conflict as a \"frozen conflict\"

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Nagorno Karabakh Conflict
as a "frozen conflict"





Vildan DEMİRKIRAN


Izmir University of Economics

2012-2013








IREU 412 Neighbourhood Policy of the EU
Barış GÜRSOY









Importance of the region
Geo-strategic location of the South Caucasus at the crossroads between East and West caused that the territory was always conquered by different empires, becoming a zone of permanent migration, active contact between different cultures, languages, religions and a juncture of trade and transport routes.
The importance of the geo-economic factors of the region and in particular of oil-rich Azerbaijan increased for regional and non-regional actors as a result of an vast demand of oil products starting from the 1880s, leading consequently to the first oil boom in Baku. Using its national energy strategy Azerbaijan has gone through the second oil boom a century later in the middle of the 1990s after regaining its independence. "Thus, through the years of independence Azerbaijan has evolved from an economically weak, internationally isolated, and unknown country into a most dynamic economy, a regional leader, and an important strategic partner," which proves Zbigniew Brzezinski's reflection: "Despite its limited size and small population, Azerbaijan, with its vast energy resources, is also geopolitically critical…It is the cork in the bottle containing the riches of the Caspian Sea basin and Central Asia."
On the other hand, independent Azerbaijan inherited an unresolved conflict with neighbor Armenia over Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh autonomous region. It is the first and the longest running conflict which took place in the territory of the former Soviet Union. In the course of this conflict,
Armenian forces seized close to one-fifth of Azerbaijan's territory, including all of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven other adjacent Azerbaijani districts located outside the autonomous region (Lachin, Kelbajar, Fizuli, Jebrail, Zangelan, Aghdam and Gubadli). One region of the country and its surrounding neighbour districts is currently outside government control;
The occupied territories have been transformed into a buffer zone considered by Armenians as a bargaining chip on the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh and a security guarantee against Azerbaijan. Armenia is trying to use the current status quo as an instrument of political pressure to impose finally a fait-accompli-based solution.

Historical background of the conflict
Between 1828-1830, with the efforts of Tsarist Russia, a part of Armenians living in Iran were moved to the mountainous regions of the province Karabakh of Azerbaijan. As a result of this migration, Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict started and a part of Azeri Turks were forced to leave Karabakh. The first planned deportation of Azerbaijani Turks by Armenia to build "Great Armenia" took place between the years 1905-1907. For the second time, Azerbaijani Turks have been moved migration from their land by use force.
The "Soviet" citizens of Armenian origin who take on an important task in the political framework as affect the Soviet government, put Azeri Turks living in Armenia in USSR period to the "great migration" in 1948-53 and nearly 150.000 Azerbaijanis were expelled from their ancient homeland, Armenia. Deportation of Azeri Turks from their homeland Nagorno Karabakh region since 1828 has been put into effect between the years 1988-91. By this planned deportation and genocide policies, Armenia was cleaned from Azeri Turks and obtained a monolith structure.
In 1985, Mihael Gorbachev's Glastnost and Perestroika policies caused emergence of pent-up feelings of communities who had an economic and social problems and had been forced to live together in the USSR. Armenian desire on independence of Nagorno Karabakh was started to talk by Armenians in different platforms. Armenians claim on Nagorno Karabakh territories resulted with armed conflict.
Outbreak of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan
The conflict between the two countries began in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian armed forces have occupied 20 per cent of Azerbaijan since 1992, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts.
In all regions and in particular places where Azeri Turks live, several meetings were organized by Armenian resistance movement because of discharge of Azeri Turks by "fear" and "intimidation" policies.
After a short period of time, Nagorno Karabakh conflict overstep the borders of the region and military victories won in front enabled Armenians let into the interior of Azerbaijan.
In 1994, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement. The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group - Russia, France and the U.S. are currently holding peace negotiations.
During the occupation, more than 18 thousand citizens of Azerbaijan were killed, more than 20 thousand were injured, 50 thousand became permanently disabled, and 5,101 thousand Azerbaijani Turks have been lost or has been captured.
Also, during the fighting, in which between 20,000 and 30,000 people are estimated to have lost their lives, the ethnic Armenians gained control of the region. They also pushed on to occupy Azerbaijani territory outside Karabakh, creating a buffer zone linking Karabakh and Armenia.

Khojaly massacre
Khojaly was the victim of ethnic cleansing of the worst kind. A great part of the civilian population of the town, numbering 7000 before the attack, was injured and killed, and the remaining population was forced to flee over the mountains to seek refuge.
As it is seen in many cases of ethnic cleansing, the inhumanities carried out by the aggressor served a double purpose: To force the population to flee and never to come back, but also to threaten other inhabitants of nearby villages to leave their homes, fearing similar actions. The death toll of Khojaly is debated; Armenians, naturally, tend to understate the number and estimate the deceased civilians to be less than a hundred; furthermore Armenian sources, in the rare cases they mention the event, blame the Azeris for using Khojaly as a base for rocket attacks on Stepanakert.
Azeri sources put the death toll at over a thousand, the official Azerbaijani investigation put the figure at 'over 600'. Human Rights organizations have estimated the figure at anywhere between 200 and 1000.
The European Union's Policy vis-à-vis the Conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh Territory
The EU has two principal policy tools with which it seeks to address the conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh territory: the European Neighbourhood Policy, developed and implemented by the European Commission (with Action Plans needing to be ratified by both the member states and the EU) and the EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus who operates under a mandate of the Council of the European Union.
The ENP Action Plan for Armenia (2006) makes only few references to the conflict, stating its "continued strong commitment to the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict", in "close consultation with the OSCE", and "ready to consider ways to strengthen further its engagement". The ENPI Armenia Country Strategy Paper, estimating a total ENPI commitment of just under €100 million is somewhat more explicit and proactive, however: the N-K conflict is listed as one of the EC assistance priorities, stating that this "involves in the first place supporting efforts of the EUSR and OSCE Minsk Group", but further noting the EC's readiness to "provide specific assistance related to all aspects of peaceful conflict settlement and settlement consolidation", including post-conflict rehabilitation assistance under the Stability Instrument.
The ENP Action Plan for Azerbaijan (2006) also emphasizes the EU's commitment to resolving the conflict, its intention to consult closely with the OSCE, and its preparedness to strengthen its engagement in conflict resolution and post-conflict rehabilitation. In contrast to the AP for Armenia, however, resolving the conflict is the number-one priority for the EU and Azerbaijan (number 7 in the Armenia AP). The specific actions mentioned also differ: in relation to Azerbaijan, the EU is more focused on the actual settlement of the conflict ("increase diplomatic efforts", "increase political support to OSCE Minsk Group", "intensify EU dialogue with the states concerned") rather than on "accompanying" measures (civil society initiatives, de-mining, IDP assistance). The ENPI Azerbaijan Country Strategy Paper makes clear reference to resolving the conflict by recalling that it is the number-one priority of the AP and offers specific assistance under the ENPI national allocation and the Stability Instrument, and leaves open the possibility of future enhanced allocations noting that if "if the N-K conflict is settled within the lifespan of the present CSP, the EC will provide further specific assistance to help consolidate the settlement…".

Karabakh conflict is on the Canadian Press
In March 2, 2012, in the famous newspaper of Canada, La Presse, the article was published by Laura Julie Perrault named "Tension in the Caucasus" about Armenia-Azerbaijan question
She specified that Nagorno Karabakh is the territory of Azerbaijan and the issue has been set aside in recent years.
She also argues that, the negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan is complicated in the last period would cause restarting to regional conflicts and probably Russia, Iran and Turkey will join those conflicts.



REFERENCES

BRZEZINSKI, Z, "The Grand Chessboard ", New York, BasicBooks, 1997, p. 129
CORNELL, S E., The Nagorno-Karabagh Conflict, Uppsala University, Department of East European Studies, 1999, p. 31

Human Rights Watch/Helsinki, Seven Years of Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, 1994

OĞAN, S, Dağlık Karabağ'da Azeri Türklerine Uygulanan Sürgünün Hikâyesi, Siyasal Birikim, February 26, 2013, Available at: http://www.siyasalbirikim.org/gundem/daglik-karabagda-azeri-turklerine-uygulanan-surgunun-hikayesi-h506.html

PASHAYEVA, G, The Nagorno Karabakh Conflıct in the Aftermath of the Russıa-Georgıa War, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, 2009, p. 56

POPE, H, "600 Azerbaijanis slain at Khojaly, investigator says", The Los Angeles Times, June 12, 1992.

The Journal of Turkish Weekly, Iran, Russia discuss Nagorno Karabagh conflict, April 12, 2013 Available at: http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/148990/iran-russia-discuss-nagorno-karabakh-conflict.html

WOLFF, S, The European Union and the Conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh Territory, Centre for International Crisis Management and Conflict Resolution, University of Nottingham, 2007, p. 2

http://www.gokgazete.com/karabag-sorunu-kanada-basininda.html, March 5, 2012





Gulshan Pashayeva, The Nagorno Karabakh Conflıct in the Aftermath of the Russıa-Georgıa War, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, 2009, p. 56
Ibid, idem
Zbigniew Brzezinski, "The Grand Chessboard ", New York, BasicBooks, 1997, p. 129
Gulshan Pashayeva, The Nagorno Karabakh Conflıct in the Aftermath of the Russıa-Georgıa War
Sinan Oğan, Dağlık Karabağ'da Azeri Türklerine Uygulanan Sürgünün Hikâyesi, Siyasal Birikim, February 26, 2013
Ibid
Sinan Oğan, Dağlık Karabağ'da Azeri Türklerine Uygulanan Sürgünün Hikâyesi, Siyasal Birikim, February 26, 2013
The Journal of Turkish Weekly, Iran, Russia discuss Nagorno Karabagh conflict, April 12, 2013
Sinan Oğan, Dağlık Karabağ'da Azeri Türklerine Uygulanan Sürgünün Hikâyesi, Siyasal Birikim, February 26, 2013
Ibid
The Journal of Turkish Weekly, Iran, Russia discuss Nagorno Karabagh conflict, April 12, 2013
Sinan Oğan, Dağlık Karabağ'da Azeri Türklerine Uygulanan Sürgünün Hikâyesi,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/country_profiles/3658938.stm, January 10, 2012
Svante E. Cornell, The Nagorno-Karabagh Conflict, Uppsala University, Department of East European Studies, 1999, p. 31
Ibid, idem
Hugh Pope, "600 Azerbaijanis slain at Khojaly, investigator says", The Los Angeles Times, June 12, 1992.
Human Rights Watch/Helsinki, Seven Years of Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, 1994
Stefan Wolff, The European Union and the Conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh Territory, Centre for International Crisis Management and Conflict Resolution, University of Nottingham, 2007, p. 2

http://www.gokgazete.com/karabag-sorunu-kanada-basininda.html, March 5, 2012