Late Quaternary Lake-Level Record from Northern Eurasia

QUATERNARY RESEARCH ARTICLE NO.

45, 138–159 (1996)

0016

Late Quaternary Lake-Level Record from Northern Eurasia SANDY P. HARRISON,* GE YU,*

AND

PAVEL E. TARASOV*,†

*Dynamic Palaeoclimatology Group, Lund University, Box 117, S-221 00 Lund, Sweden; and †Laboratory of Pleistocene Paleogeography and Recent Deposits, Department of Geography, Moscow State University, Leninskie Gory, 119899 Moscow, Russia Received August 16, 1995

Lake records from northern Eurasia show regionally coherent patterns of changes during the late Quaternary. Lakes peripheral to the Scandinavian ice sheet were lower than those today but lakes in the Mediterranean zone were high at the glacial maximum, reflecting the dominance of glacial anticyclonic conditions in northern Europe and a southward shift of the Westerlies. The influence of the glacial anticyclonic circulation attenuated through the late glacial period, and the Westerlies gradually shifted northward, such that drier conditions south of the ice sheet were confined to a progressively narrower zone and the Mediterranean became drier. The early Holocene shows a gradual shift to conditions wetter than present in central Asia, associated with the expanded Asian monsoon, and in the Mediterranean, in response to local, monsoon-type circulation. There is no evidence of midcontinental aridity in northern Eurasia during the mid-Holocene. In contrast, the circum-Baltic region was drier, reflecting the increased incidence of blocking anticyclones centered on Scandinavia in summer. There is a gradual transition to modern conditions after ca. 5000 yr B.P. Although these broad-scale patterns are interrupted by shorter term fluctuations, the long-term trends in lake behavior show a clear response to changes in insolation and glaciation. q 1996 University of Washington.

Perrott and Roberts, 1983; Street-Perrott and Harrison, 1985; Harrison and Metcalfe, 1985; Harrison, 1993). The aim of this paper is to document changes in the regional climates of northern Eurasia, as shown by lake records, through the late Quaternary. Despite the wealth of paleoenvironmental evidence from this region, there have been few attempts to examine the patterns of regional climate changes across the continent and to use these to investigate the mechanisms of climate change. The modern pattern of regional climates across northern Eurasia is largely determined by the interplay of the Westerlies and the Asian monsoon. Modeling studies have suggested that there have been fundamental changes in the strength and extent of the Westerlies and the Asian monsoon in response to changes in insolation and glacial boundary conditions during the late Quaternary (COHMAP Members, 1988). The broad spatial extent and the absence of major topographic barriers make northern Eurasia an ideal place to test these assertions, and new compilations of lake data from the region make it possible to do so. DATA AND METHODS

The Lake Data

INTRODUCTION

Changes in lake depth and area, in response to changes in the moisture balance (precipitation minus evaporation) over the lake and its catchment, can be reconstructed from geological and biostratigraphic data (Street-Perrott and Harrison, 1985; Harrison and Digerfeldt, 1993). Although local factors may affect individual lake records, regionally synchronous changes in lake behavior provide a good indicator of broad-scale climate changes. Although lake water balance can be affected by a number of different climatic parameters, modeling studies show that the most important controls are precipitation and, to a lesser extent, cloudiness (Benson, 1981; Hastenrath and Kutzbach, 1983; Harrison et al., 1993). Changes in these parameters are highly sensitive to changes in atmospheric circulation regimes. This observation provides the basis for the widespread use of continental-scale syntheses of lake data to reconstruct changes in atmospheric circulation patterns during the late Quaternary (e.g., Street-

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0033-5894/96 $18.00 Copyright q 1996 by the University of Washington. All rights of reproduction in any form reserved.

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Most of the lake data (Table 1) have been derived from two new public data bases: the European Lake Status Data Base (ELSDB: Yu and Harrison, 1995a) and the Former Soviet Union and Mongolia Lake Status Data Base (FSUDB: Tarasov et al., 1994). Both of these data bases contain records of long-term changes in lake status, a surrogate measure for relative water depth or lake level, from closed and overflowing lakes during the late Quaternary. Although lakes fluctuate in depth and area on time scales ranging from intraannual to millennial, records of the shorter term fluctuations are only preserved in the geological record under exceptional conditions because of physical or biological mixing of the sediments. The lake status records documented in the ELSDB and FSUDB therefore emphasize those changes in water depth or lake level that persist for longer than the interval over which sediments have been homogenized by such processes (generally changes registered for periods on the order of 100 yr or more). Stratigraphic indicators of

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TABLE 1 Summary of the Lake Data Used in This Study

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Note. The latitude and longitude of each site is given in decimal degrees, where positive values refer to North and East respectively and negative values to South and West. The data sources used to derive the status coding are indicated, where L, lithology; H, presence of sedimentary hiatus; Sr, major changes in sedimentation rate; A, aquatic pollen and/or aquatic macrofossils; D, diatoms; M, molluscs; O, ostracodes; Ge, geochemistry; G, geomorphic features; A, archaeological sites; and Os, other lines of evidence. The status coding (C) at each time period mapped is given, where 1, low; 2, intermediate; 3, high; and intervals when there is a sedimentary record but it was not possible to derive an unambiguous coding are indicated by n/c. Alternative status codings (e.g., 1/2) indicate that the timing of the transition from one status to another is uncertain; such records are not used for mapping purposes. The dating control (DC) and dating method (DM) are indicated by numeric codes (see text for definition of these codes). We give only the major references for each site; a complete list of the references used to reconstruct the status coding and chronology through time at each site is given in the respective data base, where E, European Lake Status Data Base (Yu and Harrison, 1995a); F, Former Soviet Union and Mongolia Lake Status Data Base (Tarasov et al., 1994); and O, Oxford Lake-Level Data Base (Street-Perrott et al., 1989).

TABLE 1—Continued

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extreme events (e.g., flash flood deposits) have been screened out of the status record. The sites chosen for inclusion have also been screened to exclude records influenced by nonclimatic factors, such as tectonism or human impact, or where the climatic influence is mediated by glaciers, sea level, or groundwater. The major source of information used to reconstruct status changes in lakes from northern Eurasia (Table 1) is changes in the nature of the lake bottom sediments (including lithology, grain size, organic content, the position of the sediment limit, and chemical composition) and sedimentary structure (e.g., presence or absence of laminations, reworked sediments, sedimentary hiatuses). Paleoecological evidence (e.g., changes in aquatic pollen and/or macrofossils, diatoms, algae, mosses, Cladocera, ostracodes, and mollusc assemblages) of changes in water depth is also generally available for sites from northern Eurasia. It is not possible to derive absolute water depth or lake level from most of these types of sedimentary and biostratigraphic evidence. However, information on absolute changes in depth and/or level can be obtained from changes in the position of the sediment limit (Digerfeldt, 1986), geomorphic evidence (e.g., ancient shoreline features above or below the modern level of the lake), archaeological evidence (e.g., inundated dwelling sites), and historical records. In the ELSDB and FSUDB, the reconstruction of changes in lake status at every site is based on a consensus interpretation of a minimum of two lines of evidence, following Harrison and Digerfeldt (1993). The number of status classes that can be identified at an individual site depends on the type and quality of the sedimentologic and biostratigraphic record. At some sites, it is possible to derive a rather detailed record of depth changes (e.g., with up to seven different status classes) while at other sites the information is only sufficient to distinguish intervals when the lake is higher or lower than present. Although a complete record of changes in status is preserved in the ELSDB and FSUDB, the status classes must be standardized to permit comparisons between sites and for mapping purposes. We use a scheme (Table 1) in which the status classes are defined as low (1), intermediate (2), or high (3). The boundaries between these categories have been arbitrarily defined so that, for each lake record, the class ‘‘high’’ corresponds to the upper quartile and the class ‘‘low’’ to the lower quartile of that lake’s variation in depth or level during the entire period of record. This definition was adopted to ensure compatibility with the codings used in the only other public lake data base (the Oxford LakeLevel Data Base: Street-Perrott et al., 1989). The chronology of changes in lake status at individual sites in the ELSDB and FSUDB is based on radiometric methods, dated tephras, annual laminations, pollen correlation with either nearby radiometrically dated sites or a regional pollen chronostratigraphy, or a combination of these

1. Dating based on radiometric dates from the lake deposits, or varve-counting 2. Dating based on pollen and/or lithological correlation with a radiometrically dated core and/or sequence within the same lake basin 3. Dating based on pollen correlation with a radiometrically dated site within 50 km of the lake site 4. Dating based on pollen correlation with a radiometrically dated regional pollen sequence, or archaeological dating 5. Dating based on correlation with a general stratigraphic or climatic scheme.

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methods. Since these methods are not all equally reliable, and since the availability of radiometric dates or chronological ‘‘marker’’ horizons (whether based on such markers as tephras or pollen events) may vary through time, the precision of dating may change even through a single lake status record and certainly between lake status records. The data bases contain information which permits the quality of the dating control (DC in Table 1) and the reliability of the dating method (DM in Table 1) at a given time to be evaluated. The schemes used for assessing dating control were developed for the Cooperative Holocene Mapping (COHMAP) Project (Webb, 1985). For data from continuous sedimentary records, each time period is assigned a ranking (from 1 to 7) as follows: 1. Bracketing dates within a 2000-yr interval about the time being assessed 2. Bracketing dates, one within 2000 yr and the second within 4000 yr of the time being assessed 3. Bracketing dates within a 4000-yr interval about the time being assessed 4. Bracketing dates, one within 4000 yr and the second within 6000 yr of the time being assessed 5. Bracketing dates within a 6000-yr interval about the time being assessed 6. Bracketing dates, one within 6000-yr and the second within 8000 yr of the time being assessed 7. Poorly dated. An alternative scheme is applied at sites where the evidence for changes in water depth was derived from discontinuous records, such that each time period is assigned a ranking (from 1 to 7) as follows: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.

Date within 250 yr of the time being assessed Date within 500 yr of the time being assessed Date within 750 yr of the time being assessed Date within 1000 yr of the time being assessed Date within 1500 yr of the time being assessed Date within 2000 yr of the time being assessed Poorly dated.

The dating method at each time period is indicated by a numeric code, following Tarasov et al. (1994), where

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FIG. 1. Distribution and source of lake data used in this study. Closed circles indicate sites from the ELSDB, closed triangles sites from the FSUDB, and open circles sites from the OLLDB.

The ELSDB contains records from 118 sites and the FSUDB contains records from 63 sites. For the purposes of this study, we have selected only those sites which are lakes today (Fig. 1), thereby excluding 32 sites where the recent record appears to reflect infilling and/or hydroseral development. Although both data bases contain continuous records of changes in lake status, we have only extracted the lake status data at 500-yr intervals from 18,000 yr B.P. to the present. We used the dating control and dating method information in the ELSDB and FSUDB data bases to exclude sites where (a) the dating control is poor (dating control ú4) and (b) the dating is based entirely on correlation with regional stratigraphic, biostratigraphic, or archaeologic schemes (dating method ú3). To complete the coverage in the circum-Mediterranean region, we have extracted five sites from the Oxford LakeLevel Data Base (Table 1). This data base contains information on radiometrically dated lake-level changes in closedbasin lakes at 1000-yr intervals. The records are comparable to those in the ELSDB and FSUDB, in that they have been screened to exclude sites reflecting nonclimatic and indirect climatic influences. The lake status data, expressed as differences from present, have been mapped at 500-yr intervals to identify changes in regional climate patterns in the late Quaternary. Here, we present maps of only those time slices that represent the maximum expression of specific climatic patterns. The interpretation of these maps is based on an understanding of the modern climatology of the region.

The climate of northern Eurasia is dominated by the seasonal migration of the Westerlies. The northernmost part of the continent is a gently sloping plain, increasing in elevation eastward (Fig. 2a). Although the Scandes and Ural mountain chains have a local rain-shadow effect, they are not sufficiently large to block the westerly flow. Thus, westerly winds penetrate far into eastern Siberia. However, the vast extent of northern Eurasia, which stretches over 10,000 km from west to east and about 5000 km from north to south, encourages the development of thermal pressure cells in the continental interior and strong monsoon circulations. The winter monsoon flow affects a large part of the continent, but the penetration of summer monsoonal flow from the Pacific is limited by the mountains of Mongolia and the Tibetan Plateau, and by the Eastern Siberian Highlands (Zhang and Liu, 1992). The interaction of the Westerlies with the monsoon circulation produces distinct patterns in regional climates. In winter, the upper level (500 mb) Westerlies impinge on Europe at the latitude of southern France, bringing precipitation to a broad band across southern Europe. At the surface, generally low insolation leads to low temperatures and the formation of a high-pressure cell over the Eurasian continental interior (Siberian anticyclone). Corresponding low pressure cells develop over the relatively warm oceans (Icelandic Low, Aleutian Low). Surface westerly flow around the southern margin of the Icelandic Low brings cyclonic precip-

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Modern Climatology

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FIG. 2. The physiography and rainfall of Eurasia: (a) simplified physiographic map, showing main geographic features referred to in the text, (b) total winter-season (December–January–February) precipitation (mm), and (c) total summer-season (June–July–August) precipitation (mm) (based on data from Leemans and Cramer, 1991).

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itation into northwestern Europe. Although the precipitation gradient across mainland Europe is gentle, the penetration of cyclonic precipitation eastward is limited in Scandinavia by the Scandes Mountains. A high-pressure ridge associated with the Siberian anticyclone frequently extends as far westward as 307E (Martyn, 1992), allowing cold, easterly flow into northern and central Europe. In extreme years, easterly flow can penetrate into the eastern Mediterranean region (Walle´n, 1970). On the eastern flank of the Siberian anticyclone, cold and dry offshore winds dominate over a large part of eastern Asia, including eastern Siberia, eastern China, and Mongolia. In summer, in response to the reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient, the upper level westerlies are displaced northward and become weaker. The jet stream entry into Europe is at the latitude of southern Scandinavia, and the Icelandic Low is correspondingly displaced far to the north and weaker (Martyn, 1992). High insolation leads to heating of the continental interior, resulting in the formation of a low-pressure cell over Siberia. This results in convective precipitation in the circum-Baltic region and eastern Europe. High-pressure cells occur over the relatively cool ocean at the latitude of the subtropical anticyclones (Azores High, Pacific High). This results in dry conditions across southern Europe. However, westerly flow around the northern flank of the Azores High advects cooler air and precipitation into northern Eurasia as far as about 1057E (Lydolph, 1977; Martyn, 1992). Onshore flow from the Pacific High brings monsoonal precipitation into the coastal regions of eastern Asia. Although the penetration of onshore flow into the continental interior is limited by the mountains of Mongolia, Tibet, and eastern Siberia, monsoon air masses can penetrate further westward via the Amur Valley when the Pacific High is stronger than normal (Lydolph, 1977; Martyn, 1992). Onshore flow, from the high-pressure cells located over the Chukchi and Barents Seas (Arctic High), is also characteristic of the far north, contributing to the convective rainfall typical of far northern Siberia. These circulation patterns are reflected in the seasonal distribution of precipitation across Eurasia (Figs. 2b, c). In general, maximum precipitation occurs along the northwest coast and declines eastward such that the Asian interior is extremely arid. However, except in regions where there are mountain barriers, the decline in precipitation eastward is gradual. The winter rainfall maximum across southern Europe, the Middle East, and as far east as the Caspian Sea (Fig. 2b) is associated with the southerly position of the westerlies in winter. The winter rainfall maximum along the west coast reflects the predominance of cyclonic rains. The northern and western slopes of the Pyrenees, the Alps, and the western Caucausus are dominated by westerly winds throughout the year, although the maximum precipitation occurs during the winter season. The summer maximum in

the circum-Baltic region, eastern Europe, and central Siberia (Fig. 2c) reflects the predominance of convective rainfall associated with summer warming of the continental interior. There is a decrease in total precipitation northward toward the Arctic coast and a more pronounced decrease southward toward central Asia. The summer maximum in eastern Asia reflects monsoonal precipitation.

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REGIONAL PATTERNS OF LAKE-LEVEL CHANGE DURING THE LATE QUATERNARY

Lake data covering the last glacial maximum are confined to the narrow zone beyond the ice margin in northwestern Europe and the northern Mediterranean region (Fig. 3a). The lakes indicate conditions similar to or drier than today in northwestern Europe but wetter than today in the northern Mediterranean. This pattern is consistent with the development of anticyclonic circulation over the Scandinavian ice sheet (Harrison et al., 1992), and the splitting and southward displacement of the Westerly jet caused by the mountainlike mass of the Laurentide ice sheet (COHMAP Members, 1988). The more southerly position of the Westerlies would lead to relative drying in northwestern Europe and relative wetting in southern Europe; the cold, dry offshore winds associated with anticyclonic conditions over the ice sheet would tend to enhance this differentiation, causing drying near the ice sheet and significantly cooler conditions (and hence less evaporation) further south (Prentice et al., 1992). There is no significant change in the patterns of lake status until after 16,500 yr B.P. Lakes in the northern Mediterranean region show conditions similar or even somewhat drier than today during the late-glacial period (e.g., 15,000 yr B.P.; Fig. 3b). This is consistent with a northward migration of the Westerly jet as the Laurentide ice sheet retreated and decreased in elevation. However, there are no lake data from northern Europe that would permit a more detailed reconstruction to be made of this shift in the circulation regime. By 12,000 yr B.P. (Fig. 3c), the lakes indicate a return to conditions wetter than present across southern and central Europe, but similar or drier than today in the Middle East and in a zone stretching from southern Britain through into Poland. A single site in Mongolia shows conditions wetter than present. During the early Holocene (e.g., 9500 yr B.P.; Fig. 4a), the lakes show conditions similar to or drier than present in a broad band across southern Britain and southern Scandinavia and into the eastern Baltic and wetter conditions along the west coast, in central Europe, and in the northern Mediterranean region. The continental interior was drier than present. The pattern in northern Europe is consistent with enhanced southwesterly flow along the west coast and strengthened easterlies south of the Scandinavian ice sheet, consistent with the persistence of anticyclonic circulation

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FIG. 3.

Lake status, expressed as differences from present, at (a) 18,000 yr B.P., (b) 15,000 yr B.P., and (c) 12,000 yr B.P.

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FIG. 4.

Lake status, expressed as differences from present, at (a) 9500 yr B.P., (b) 7000 yr B.P., and (c) 3000 yr B.P.

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over the by now much-reduced ice sheet (Yu and Harrison, 1995b). Drier conditions in the continental interior likely reflect the development of a stronger-than-present thermal high-pressure cell over central and western Siberia in response to increased summer insolation during the early Holocene. Given the prevailing circulation patterns over northern Europe, the return to wetter conditions in the Mediterranean region must be a response to increased summer rainfall and suggests that the influence of the Azores High was weaker than today. The dramatic retreat of the Scandinavian ice sheet after 9500 yr B.P., and its complete disappearance between 8500 and 7500 yr B.P. (Svensson, 1991), can be expected to have resulted in similarly dramatic changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over northern Europe during the early Holocene, and is likely implicated in the rapid changes observed in the lake status records during the early Holocene (Harrison and Digerfeldt, 1993). A more stable lake status pattern was established after about 8000 yr B.P., with conditions drier than present over much of northern Europe. By 7000 yr B.P. (Fig. 4b) lakes higher than today were confined to the far north and the west coast of northern Europe, eastern Finland, and western Russia. The lakes from the Mediterranean region (except for a single site in Italy, which shows a less positive water balance than today) and central Eurasia show conditions wetter than present. The pattern of lake status during the mid- to late Holocene, with conditions drier than today in the summer rainfall area centered on the Baltic, indicates the establishment of a highly meridional circulation pattern over Europe. Yu and Harrison (1995b) have suggested that this pattern could have resulted from increased persistence of blocking anticyclones over Scandinavia and the Baltic Sea in summer as a consequence of higher-than-present summer insolation, enhanced by the fact that the Baltic Sea was larger than present. The wetter conditions in southern Europe are consistent with a more meridional circulation pattern and the continuing weakness of subtropical anticyclonic flow over the Mediterranean in summer. Conditions wetter than today in central Eurasia suggest the region was affected by the insolation-induced enhancement of the Asian monsoon. There is a gradual transition after 5000 yr B.P. toward modern conditions (e.g., 3000 yr B.P.; Fig. 4c). The gradual nature of the transition is most clearly seen in the circumBaltic region, where the area affected by summer blocking and characterized by dry conditions is progressively reduced, and in central Asia, where conditions become progressively drier. However, in the Mediterranean region the transition is interrupted by shorter term fluctuations in lake status. Thus, the lakes show conditions similar to present already at 4000 yr B.P., a return to wetter conditions between 3000 (Fig. 4c) and 2000 yr B.P., and then a progressive shift toward modern conditions after 2000 yr B.P.

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FIG. 5. Temporal pattern of changes in lake status (a) from 18,000 yr B.P. to present in the Mediterranean region, based on records from 13 lakes from the Iberian Peninsula, the Balkan Peninsula, and Turkey; and (b) from 12,000 yr B.P. to present in northern Europe, based on records from 21 lakes from the region between 507 –657N and 07 –257E.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

The lake data from the northern Mediterranean region are rather limited, but nevertheless show a clear pattern of change through time. The lakes are high at the glacial maximum, lower during the late-glacial period, and then high again during the early to mid-Holocene (Fig. 5a). The present day is the driest interval during the past 20,000 years. This temporal pattern suggests that the lake record from the Mediterranean region reflects the interplay of two major climatic systems: the Westerlies and the monsoon. Wetter conditions during the last glacial maximum likely reflect an increase in depressional rainfall resulting from the southward displacement of the Westerlies consequent on the existence of the large mountain-like mass of the Laurentide ice sheet (COHMAP Members, 1988; Harrison et al., 1992). Pollen records from the region show the occurrence of ‘‘steppe’’-type vegetation, which is consistent with colder conditions and an increase in (primarily) winter rainfall (Prentice et al., 1992). The wetter conditions registered by the lakes in the early to mid-Holocene apparently reflect an increase in summer rainfall. Pollen records, which show that evergreen and warm mixed forests were more extensive during the early to midHolocene (Huntley, 1988; Huntley and Prentice, 1993; Roberts and Wright, 1993), are consistent with an increase in growing-season moisture. Analyses of the long pollen record from Tenaghi Philippon show that intervals with a more

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positive growing-season water balance are in phase with changes in the Afro–Asian monsoon over the past ca. 1 myr (Mommersteeg et al., 1995). A lack of data from the Maghreb makes it impossible to determine whether increases in summer rainfall in the northern Mediterranean represent a northward extension of the African monsoon itself. In any case, the strengthening of the African monsoon is associated with weakening of the influence of the subtropical anticyclonic circulation over the Mediterranean. This would favor the development of depressions over the Mediterranean and increase cyclonic rainfall in summer (Walle´n, 1970). Thus, wetter conditions in the northern Mediterranean could represent a local monsoonlike phenomenon, generated by the insolation-induced increase in land–sea contrast, and related to the summer storms characteristic of the Mediterranean Sea at the present day (e.g., Huntley and Prentice, 1993). This explanation is supported by the fact that the wetter conditions are largely confined to the more extensive land areas of the Iberian and Balkan Peninsulas; the limited evidence from Italy suggests that conditions were drier during the early to mid-Holocene (Giraudi, 1989; C. Giraudi, personal communication, 1995). The lake data from northern Europe show two phases of drier-than-present conditions, during the glaciation and lateglacial period, and during the mid-Holocene (Fig. 5b), but differences in the area affected indicate that different changes in circulation were involved. At the glacial maximum, the development of a glacial anticyclone throughout the year resulted in drier conditions along the margin of the Scandinavian ice sheet. This effect likely attenuated during the late-glacial period, but the lake data show that a belt of much drier conditions associated with easterly flow along the southern margin of the ice sheet persisted until at least 9500 yr B.P. This zone of drier conditions only disappears with the final rapid disintegration of the ice sheet in the early Holocene. Geomorphic data from southern Scandinavia also show the dominance of easterly winds during the late-glacial period, and persisting until at least the Younger Dryas (Schlyter, 1991). Thus, paleodata suggest that even a relatively small ice sheet can generate a significant glacial anticyclone and strong easterly flow. Climate model simulations appear to underestimate this effect; for example, a simulation of the combined effects of insolation and glaciation changes at 12,000 yr B.P. made with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM0) shows only a weak anticyclone in winter and no distinct anticyclonic flow in summer over Scandinavia (COHMAP Members, 1988; Harrison et al., 1992; Kutzbach et al., 1993). As a result, there is no development of the tongue of drier conditions along the southern margin of the ice sheet shown by the lake data in this simulation. The zone of drier conditions during the early to midHolocene was centered on the Baltic and appears to have

resulted from the development and persistence of blocking anticyclones in summer. The incidence of blocking anticyclones over Scandinavia and the Baltic increases when the westerly flow is weaker than normal. Climate model simulations suggest that a more meridional upper air circulation pattern over Europe is characteristic of intervals of greaterthan-present summer insolation (Harrison et al., 1992; Kutzbach et al., 1993). Yu and Harrison (1995b) have suggested that the insolation-induced effect would have been enhanced by the fact that the Baltic Sea was larger. Obviously, this effect is not seen in the coarse-resolution climate simulations currently available, where the size of the Baltic is unchanged during the Holocene, but should be discernible in mesoscale model simulations of Europe. The lake data from central Eurasia provide a record of the expansion of the Asian monsoon during the Holocene. At the beginning of the Holocene, lakes in the Baikal region and Mongolia show conditions drier than present. The lake data suggest that the expansion of the monsoon into central Eurasia did not take place until after 8000 yr B.P. By 6000 yr B.P., lakes in western Siberia, Mongolia, and as far north as Yakutia register conditions wetter than present. Thus, the lake data suggest that the expansion of the Asian monsoon was at a maximum in the mid-Holocene, considerably lagging the driving changes in insolation forcing. The lake record from northern Eurasia is consistent with reconstructions of the monsoon based on paleodata, including lake data, from China, which show that the northern limit of the monsoon was at least 500 km further north at 6000 than at 9000 yr B.P. (Winkler and Wang, 1993; Yu and Qin, in press). The lake data suggest that the interior of northern Eurasia, from the Urals to Yakutia, experienced a water balance at 6000 yr B.P. more positive than that of the present, associated with cyclone activity on the downstream limb of the summer anticyclone in the west and monsoon penetration in the east. Climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene show significant Northern Hemisphere mid-continental warming and drying, associated with the higher-than-present summer insolation (Kutzbach et al., 1993; Kutzbach et al., in preparation; Liao et al., 1995; Hall and Valdes, in preparation). Pollen and lake data show conditions substantially drier than today in North America (Thompson et al., 1993; Webb et al., 1993), but the lake data from northern Eurasia do not indicate drier conditions at 6000 yr B.P. The paucity of data from central Siberia means that we cannot rule out the possibility of drier conditions in the mid-continent at 6000 yr B.P., but the lake data indicate that the area affected was smaller than suggested by the simulations. Our analyses of the lake data from northern Eurasia show that for any given region similar climatic responses (namely, a more- or a less-positive water balance) can be caused by markedly different changes in the circulation regime resulting from fundamentally different global forcing (glacial

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or insolation changes). Thus, drying in northern Europe may reflect either increased easterly flow associated with the development of a glacial anticyclone or the suppression of summer rainfall as a result of an insolation-induced increase in the development of blocking anticyclones. Similarly, wetter conditions in the Mediterranean may result from the southward displacement of the Westerlies during glacial intervals or monsoon-type circulation during intervals of higher-than-present summer insolation. The mechanisms can be differentiated, to some extent, by considering the nature of the climate changes in adjacent regions. However, these examples of equifinality illustrate the fact that it is only possible to reconstruct the underlying mechanisms of climate change using spatially extensive networks of paleodata, such that it is possible to distinguish not only coherent changes within a region but also the pattern of interregional differences. Climate model simulations, which show the regional consequences of specific changes in global boundary conditions, offer an alternative route to explaining observed paleoclimatic changes. This approach will be even more attractive when higher resolution global (or mesoscale model) simulations of key intervals during the late Quaternary become available. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The European Lake Status Data Base, the Former Soviet Union and Mongolia Lake Status Data Base, and the Oxford Lake-Level Data Base are archived at the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) at Boulder, CO, and can be accessed via PaleoVue from INTERNET:ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov. Financial support for this work was provided by the Swedish Natural Science Research Council (NFR), the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (KVA) through their Soviet–Swedish Research Cooperation programme, the International Science (Soros) Foundation (NC. 5000), the NOAA Climate and Global Change Program (Paleoclimatology), via a subcontract from the University of Madison—Wisconsin, and the European Union, through an Environment Programme research grant. We thank Fouzia Laarif for computer cartographic assistance, and Colin Prentice for helpful comments on the manuscript.

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