Iran Dial: pact looks doubtful

Igor PANKRATENKO

Iran Dial: pact looks doubtful

July 2015

CONTENTS RESULTS OF VIENNA: A HOUSE BUILT ON SAND ...............................4 THE IRANIAN OIL AND GAS AFTER THE VIENNA AGREEMENT .....8 TEHRAN: INTERNAL POLITICAL INTRIGUE OF "THE VIENNA PACT"............................................................................................................13 MOSCOW AND TEHRAN AFTER THE "VIENNA PACT": COSTS? .....18

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RESULTS OF VIENNA: A HOUSE BUILT ON SAND July 15, 2015

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uphoria swept the world after the news from Vienna. Signed yesterday in the Austrian capital, the final agreement on the Iranian nuclear program is already being called historic. Politicians say that the complex issues of world politics, the negotiation of which took no

less than thirteen years, successfully resolved and removed from the agenda. But is it really so rosy prospects look to reach an agreement between Iran and the "six" of international mediators? Sprawling over 18 days, the final stage of the negotiations held in Vienna on Iran's nuclear program exhausted its direct participants, and many observers. Rumors about the discussions and the prospects of signing the Agreement rapidly born - a dramatically different - and just as quickly died, diplomats fobbed off with platitudes, and by the end of the negotiations in general went into the language of numbers. "90 percent ... 97 percent ... 98 percent of the text agreed upon," - passed each other journalists. Final decisions held the night of 13 July, and the next day, at ten in the morning local time, it was announced that the agreement was a fait accompli, the content of the 100-page document (main contract and five annexes) finally meet all participated in negotiating parties. So, how to look like the main points of the agreements reached in Vienna? - Iran has reduced the number of centrifuges to enrich uranium at two-thirds of the available amount, from 18 to 6000. - Of the total amount of enriched uranium in Iran's possession is 300 kilos, ie 4 per cent of the accumulated over the years in volume. The remaining 96 percent must be either disposed of or taken out of the country. - A heavy water reactor in Arak to be converted so that it was impossible to produce plutonium. - Iran has committed itself to international inspections access to any facilities, including military-related nuclear research. However, he could challenge the choice of an object, but the final decision remains with the inspection committee of international observers. It is noteworthy that under the terms of the Agreement, the inspector may be appointed only from the citizens of those countries that have diplomatic relations with Tehran, that is, citizens of the United States in such inspections will not take part. - After the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirms that Iran is complying with its obligations under the Agreement, the UN Security Council, the United States and the 4

European Union will begin a phased lifting of sanctions. This is expected to happen by the end of this - the beginning of 2016 . One of the first steps in the lifting of the sanctions will defrost Iran's foreign assets, which currently amount to about $ 130 billion. - Restrictions on the supply to Iran of conventional weapons (so-called arms embargo) are stored for five years. In eight years, retained the prohibition to sell missile technology to Iran. - Conflict resolution mechanisms and reversibility of sanctions. If the IAEA or one of the states included in the "six" of international mediators, any suspicion that Iran is in breach of the Agreement, the matter is referred to the conflict commission, which shall, within 30 days to accept or refute this suspicion. In case, if a compromise can not be reached, the matter shall be referred to the UN Security Council, which must periodically pass resolutions on easing the sanctions regime. The veto on the resolution of one of the members of the Security Council would mean that the sanctions are renewed. On the whole dispute resolution process and the final decisions on it is given 65 days. "Pitfalls" document and comments on the text Both Barack Obama and Hassan Rowhani has said the "historic character" of the agreements reached in Vienna. At the same time, in full accordance with the saying that "victory has many fathers and defeat is only - an orphan," each of the presidents in his address to fellow citizens stressed that the agreement is precisely their success - the US or Iran, underline. More informed on the subject expressed by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic Dr. Javad Zarif, who noted that the agreement "is not perfect", it is, by and large, not very suitable for either the United States or Iran, but it is the most "out of that we were able to achieve in the current environment. " Indeed, a document adopted in Vienna has a lot of questions. First of all, the simultaneous lifting of sanctions, insisting on anything because all these years, Tehran will not happen. Even under the most optimistic scenario - if the agreement is approved by the US Congress, the Iranian Majlis held hardware and procedures in the United Nations - the same access to their frozen assets Iranians will get no earlier than the end of this year. More time will be spent on deciding the American president and the leadership of the European Union on removal of certain sanctions, the oil embargo and the abolition of banking restrictions. Recall that all this will be based on the results of inspections and findings of the IAEA, of partiality and bias against Iran are the world over the past years had the opportunity to see repeatedly. Even with regard to the sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council, things are not so rosy as it might seem at first glance. To implement the provisions of the Agreement to Member States to 5

adopt Security Council six (!) Resolutions - except, as already mentioned above, the issue of delivery of weapons and missile technology - for each of the aspects of Iran imposed international restrictions. And there is no doubt that each of them will be followed by lengthy discussions and regularly shares information war, until the appearance of outright fabrications about Iran's failure to perform its obligations. It is no exaggeration to say that a number of provisions of the Agreement, particularly in terms of monitoring its implementation, and the reversibility of sanctions make the document extremely vulnerable to enemy action in Iran. The process of deregulation was a "smeared", vulnerable to external influences and easily reversible. To date, its performance guarantees are only "peaceful intentions" of Washington, London and Paris, that is, in fact, the building is built Agreement "in the sand." Spelled out in the document controls the activities of the Tehran and the process of removal from the sanctions represents a perspective, without any exaggeration, "short leash" not only for the Iranian economy, but also foreign policy. Moreover, the other end of the leash is not in friendly hands. For the pro-Western circles in Iran - calling for the rejection of the anti-American policy in the region and the normalization of relations with the West - the Agreement is indeed an occasion to triumph. But is there any reason to rejoice at the development of self-supporters of the Islamic Republic, a huge number of people involved in the "economy of resistance", those who do not accept the position of the "Agreement for the Agreement"? It is worth adding that the peak of the main points of the implementation of the Agreement will be in a time when the White House will be another president and another administration. Have nothing to do with promises "to normalize relations with Iran." Needless to say, it opens a wide space for manipulation of the letter and spirit of the document signed in Vienna? The fight is over - long live the struggle! "Vienna pact" to go through a tough debate in the US Congress. 82 days of uncertainty - 60 days review and 22 days before the first ballot. No less difficult will be its passage in the Majlis. The political elite in Washington and Tehran are "red lines" that have yet to play a role. Plus - hardware UN procedures and the work of the IAEA. At each of these stages may be any surprises, but the main difficulty is not the point. Israel mouth "violent Bibi" Netanyahu has called the agreement "a capitulation of terror and blunder of historic proportions ", and in the offices of the authorities openly say that the conditions of the" Vienna pact "no value for Tel Aviv have not. And the struggle with Iran's nuclear program will be continued by all available and accessible ways. 6

Positive effects of the lifting of sanctions, even under the most optimistic scenario of development of Iranian society will feel only a minimum of one year. And then - assuming that the beginning of the implementation of the Agreement will not be torpedoed by the IAEA. In which, we recall, there remain serious questions about the content of the Iranian nuclear program until 2003 - a good excuse to accuse Tehran of "harboring and intractability" require more transparency on the verge of violating the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic, thus triggering a strong dissatisfaction with political elites in Tehran. No matter how convinced us otherwise, but the point in the "Iranian nuclear dossier" Agreement in Vienna not delivered. Since this dossier itself - a cover of a larger problem: the economic and political sanctions, an instrument that anti-Iranian coalition is trying to "correct" it objectionable foreign policy of Tehran. Rejection of this, I may say, batons - is the main "red line" for Washington, Paris, London and its allies in the Middle East. There are no guarantees that this failure actually occurs, "Vienna pact", by and large, does not provide. And this means that the euphoria over the "historic agreement" at least premature. And the evidence is just about the victory of the principle of the "Agreement for the Agreement, and already there is a correct shortcomings." *** Indeed, the final talks in Vienna marked the end of a certain stage. Stage of the struggle for what kind of a compromise document that gives hope for a settlement of the Iranian nuclear program, the international recognition of the right to peaceful nuclear Tehran and the related circumstances still to be agreed and signed. But do not have time to fanfare die down and the ink dried on the agreement, a new stage begins - the struggle for its implementation. We can already say with certainty that inflame passions, the level of opposition parties and drama, this step will exceed the previous one, the end of which we announced from the balcony of the hotel in Vienna "Coburg Palace."

Link http://eng.iran.ru/news/analytics/247/Results_of_Vienna_A_house_built_on_sand

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THE IRANIAN OIL AND GAS AFTER THE VIENNA AGREEMENT July17, 2015

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mong the parts of Iranian businessmen in international circles okolodelovyh after signing the "Vienna pact" - final agreement on its nuclear program - a fantastic rumors roam another. Someone expects shower investment in the economy and a huge queue of

foreign businessmen, awaiting distribution slices of the market. Someone speaks about the collapse of prices for oil and gas. And all this - both positive and negative - must, according to commentators, literally happen any day now ... Easy hysteria projections arises from the conviction that the Tehran to Vienna was in a remote isolation, being totally cut off from the world economy. What is fundamentally wrong, because even at the peak of the sanctions neither Washington nor the EU Commissioner isolate Iran from the rest of the business world did not succeed. "Double blow" inflicted on the Islamic Republic in 2012 - the oil embargo and the Iranian shutdown of SWIFT - of course, seriously affected the ability of Tehran in foreign trade activities. But complete isolation is not what happened. Indeed, by the end of 2014, the vast majority of the Iranian state and private banks were cut off from European and American financial systems and thus had minimal opportunities to buy US dollars and euro for international trade transactions. But at the same time in this period Tehran and its trading partners began to actively implement schemes calculations without the dollar and euro. Sharply increased cross-border trade between Iran and Turkey, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The flow going to the Chinese mobile phones, Pakistani and South Korean cigarette appliances. Cities in southern Iraq by Iranian restored building materials. Al-Majid Corporation Futtayn erecting a hypermarket in the western part of Tehran. None of what the full economic isolation, even at the peak of the sanctions were not discussed, as evidenced by the Iranians were joint projects with the Chinese, the Indian, South Korean and foreign business in general. It is absolutely necessary to consider further the conversation - the door to Iran has never been fully closed. "Vienna pact" only a little wider than it opened. But does this mean that now at the threshold of the door will hype? Unlikely. And here's why. A huge market - almost 81 million population, most of whom are young, which means that by Western standards, are just "ideal customer" - no doubt a tidbit. Foreign companies engaged in sales, from fast food chains to mobile phones, from household appliances to 8

medicines, are already preparing a presentation to expand the presence in the Iranian market and count possible profits. As for the more "serious" industries, investment in industry and energy, everything is far from being so simple.

New and old fears of foreign investors "Vienna pact" a major international business appreciated in this way, how he, by and large, and is - a preliminary agreement with a rather uncertain prospects of implementation. Indeed, today behind closed doors to discuss plans for corporate management presence in the Iranian market and send their representatives to Tehran to scout. But it is - only plans. The first of these corporations face over the past few after the signing of the agreements in Vienna between Iran and the "six" international mediators have already formulated and unanimously take out the verdict: "The Vienna pact" today does not guarantee the irreversibility of the sanctions is not reinforced by changes in the international regulatory framework, as well as in the US and EU legislation. Several simpler is the situation for those who are already active in the Iranian market, such as the French "Peugeot" and "Citroen", working closely with local automobile giant "Iran Khodro". The management of these companies have already announced that they intend to resume the supply of components for Iranian companies. But - not before the end of this - early next year. Moreover, the French managers are ready to discuss projects to build Iranian factories newer car models. Again, this is the "but" - not before will be amended accordingly to the legislation of the European Union and the United States. Years of tension between Iran and the West, the sanctions hysteria, multi-million dollar fines for cooperation with Iran did their job. Big corporations still do not trust "the Vienna pact," fear that the situation at any moment can turn 180 degrees, so extreme caution approach to the question of prospects for its presence in the Iranian market. They can be understood. Neither Sanctions Act concerning Tehran, has not been canceled. All political arrangements exist only in words. "Scalded with milk, blows on the water" - the validity of this saying remains to be seen. Business need a long time to believe that the big long-term projects with Iran are safe. And, to convince him to have it from two sides. Introducing changes in US legislation and the EU, which in itself is quite a long and complicated procedure. And at the same time seriously reforming Iranian legislation, adapting it to the changing conditions, making it more transparent. That, of course, also be the subject of tough debate between the Iranian elites.

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"Oil" - how much of this word .. After the lifting of sanctions flowing streams of Iranian oil, which drown the world market and will go to the most "bottom" prices - a nightmare, deprived of sleep and rest numerous commentators. It seems that every night is a ghost to them Bijan Zangene and brings cold sweat to the promises of today and tomorrow to bring the daily production up to almost four and a half million barrels per day. It really can happen, and the figure is quite real. With two caveats. Firstly, this volume will be achieved only by 2020. And, secondly, only if the reconstruction of infrastructure - which today's technical development is seriously lagging behind the capabilities of Saudi Arabia, the United States and Russia - the Iranian leadership will invest at least 70 billion dollars. In assessing the prospects of the most serious short-term Western experts, the same Gary Ross of PIRA Energy Group, and Sarah Vahshuri, president of SVB Energy International, unanimously agree that over the next 8-12 months, the maximum increase in production will be from 500 to 800 thousand barrels day. Relate this figure with two figures - today the world market every day receives about 94 million barrels, with demand a little more than 92.5 million. The forecast increase in world demand in 2016 - to 93.9 million barrels per day. The actual volume of Iranian oil, and not the politically engaged Declaration, which states the Ministry Zangene, the world market is able to "digest" for themselves without any shocks. A simple example - today Tehran has 40 million barrels produced but unsold inventories loaded into tankers and storage. After signing the "Vienna pact" the readiness to buy this volume have already stated China, India, South Korea and Japan. Market of the deal almost did not notice, as observed in the last few days the price fluctuations are not of a fundamental nature. In the medium term, oil prices will decline. But not because the market flow of Iranian oil rush, but because of the global economic environment. In fact, Iranian oil any serious impact on pricing will start no earlier than the end of 2016. The main factor here is not Tehran, but the position of Saudi Arabia and the United States. In the past months the Saudis have brought oil production to peak performance - 10.4 million barrels per day. This is - a kind of signal to Tehran: "You too can increase production, but more market share you get. How not to get high returns and expected after the lifting of sanctions. " And in the US there is someone to take care to limit Iran's oil exports. Suffice it to recall a completely fresh report by Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, in which it expresses a common requirement of the American "oil lobby" to the present and future of the White House: "Iran should not get relief from sanctions in the oil industry before the US manufacturers will not take its share of the international market. " 10

And, of course, gas Groundlessness of fiction about the "Iranian energy revolution", which started talking immediately after the signing of the "Covenant of Vienna", get even more confirmation of the analysis of the second "cornerstone" of the modern world - the gas market. News agency Iran.ru has in detail told about the problems that exist in the gas industry of the Islamic Republic. The need for this sector to foreign investment is estimated tens of billions. With the second largest after Russia gas reserves, Iran is not a leader in its industry. Last year produced 173 billion cubic meters of "blue fuel". Mass copper talking about the fourth place in the world. But the true "price" of the place: the first place in the top three (US, Russia, Canada) - Americans with a volume of 728 billion. And in the "nape breathe" ranked fourth Iran the same Qatar (161 billion) and even China, with its 135 billion. Moreover, from the current production volumes almost 30 billion pumped into old oil wells to maintain their performance. Another 17 billion "goes to the torch" (in Russia - about 7.8 billion in the US - about 5 billion) due to lower throughput volumes infrastructure. In addition, the annual increase in production is almost entirely eaten growing gas consumption in the country. Even if the implementation of the "Vienna pact" in terms of the lifting of sanctions will follow the optimistic scenario - without complications, even if the foreign investors in the near future will risk billions in investments in the gas sector - even with these favorable conditions, Iran could increase by 2020 its exports to Turkey and Europe in the range of 10 to 20 billion cubic meters at the most. In the European Union, of course, will be glad to take Iranian gas as a substitute for the Russian. Recently in Brussels a lot of talk about the "unique chance to unleash the true potential of Iran as an energy supplier for the EU." But, like so much in recent years coming from Brussels, it is more politics and dreams than serious intentions, based on economic calculations. Billions of dollars of investment, thousands of kilometers of infrastructure and a radical modernization of the sector of the Iranian economy - all this makes the "breakthrough of Iranian gas to the world markets" issue longterm perspective. Since even the medium-term increase in production has actually contracted domestic consumers, Pakistan, Turkey, Oman and the list goes on. And this economic reality should be added to the policy, where the same without her. United States, of course, warmly welcomed the intention of Europe to minimize the expense of Iran its dependence on Russian gas. But this does not mean that Washington will allow Europeans to fall blindly into the arms of the Iranian gas industry, they and their goods for sale there.

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*** In a word, "Vienna pact" and especially the uncertainty inherent in the part where it says the sanctions will not be the beginning of an economic boom in Iran and its rapid access to world markets. All the arguments about this - quite speculative and opportunistic. In the most favorable scenario - the absence of conflict and delays in the implementation of the final agreement, the first real and serious consequences of lifting the sanctions Iran's economy will feel no earlier than a year and a half. About as many foreign investors need to ensure the safety of investments in the Islamic Republic. And only then can we seriously talk about the real meaning for Tehran and the rest of the world have signed agreements in Vienna.

Link http://eng.iran.ru/news/analytics/248/The_Iranian_oil_and_gas_after_the_Vienna_Agreement

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TEHRAN: INTERNAL POLITICAL INTRIGUE OF "THE VIENNA PACT" July 20, 2015

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or the Iranian society and the ruling elite of the country, "the Vienna pact" means much more than just a final agreement on its nuclear program. His signing gives the start of a new phase of the political struggle between different social forces of the Islamic Republic.

Fight for choosing one of the alternatives of further development - a continuation of the current antiWestern course and loyalty to the principles of the Islamic Revolution, or the rejection of confrontation with the United States, carrying out extensive internal reforms and the policy of "pragmatism" in the form of foreign trade-offs that are a certain risk values and the foundations of the Islamic Republic. People rejoicing in the streets of Tehran and enthusiastic and laudatory articles in sympathetic president Rowhani and his team "reformers" local newspapers did not find the response and support in the circles of "conservatives" -gosudarstvennikov. Moreover, they were received with quite understandable wariness as an alarming symptom of social erosion, and significant changes in the attitudes of society. Tehran - this is not the whole country, or that preference Tehran streets away does not mean that the same thought and the rest of the Iranians. But the delight that part of the capital's population has been demonstrated after news of the signing of "the Vienna pact", once again demonstrated how deeply penetrated into the society views the "reformers" and how broad the support of their claims the "big change" in domestic and foreign policy of Iran. Any criticism signed in Vienna the final agreement is unpopular in the country today. But the euphoria that gripped part of society, can not see the main defect "Vienna pact": Iran has received a part of their sovereign rights in exchange for quite flimsy guarantee that within five to eight years, it is recognized by the country, "not a threat" to the West and, accordingly, may lift sanctions under quite the same false pretext and the West imposed. But logic and objectivity today part of Iranian society is not honor. "Maybe it signed an agreement in Vienna and is the ideal", - says the inhabitant - "but there is no alternative to it was not. Further insistence Iran could lead to even more negative consequences, up to the war. " Similar considerations - a great success propaganda "reformers" of the circles close to President Rouhani. They managed to make it appear that the agreement in its current form is a salvation for Iran. They managed to convince the public that the other way is simply not there. "Reformers", in fact, very well, "saddled" public discontent socio-economic problems of the country, which coincided with the peak of the sanctions regime. It sanctions were declared them the source of all ills. And, accordingly, to get rid of 13

them at any cost has been proclaimed a panacea from piling up for years of social and economic problems. This substitution of concepts able to get public carte blanche to make serious concessions to the United States and other members of the "six" in the negotiation process. And, at the same time, to neutralize criticism of their positions in Vienna by the "conservatives". Concessions to Washington in preparation of the final agreement and easy blackmail the Iranian leadership and society - "it is necessary for something to give for the sake of signing another such chance will not" - so looked the tactical intrigue "reformers" in the negotiations. A few days after the "Covenant of Vienna" on the website Raja News was reported that in the same part of the arms embargo on Iranian negotiators have been a very real chance, with the support of Russia and China to abolish restrictions. But the delegation headed by Javad Zarif refused to focus on this issue and He agreed on maintaining the embargo for five years. This accommodating Javad Zarif even surprised Sergey Lavrov, who was set to complete abolition of the arms embargo, and practically, this position has been agreed with the other members of the "six". Time will pass, and on such delicate moments that occurred during the negotiations, we will know much more. Therefore, the "reformers" is so important to use favorable to the mood in the Iranian society right now, because "everybody loves a winner" and information about the slippery moments after the victory over the "conservatives" and the reforms will not be present any particular risk. Plan "creeping reforms" As mentioned above, the value "of the Vienna pact" is perceived by the Iranian political elite is much broader than just the final agreement on the nuclear program. "Reformers" of the president's entourage regarded it as an opportunity to start the process of social transformation towards "more democracy and openness" and foreign policy course to begin implementation of "the reintegration of Iran into the international community and cooperation with them in solving urgent regional problems." The formula is accurate enough, but there is little doubt that, under the "international community" we have in mind primarily the United States and its allies . "There's a historic agreement should become a milestone for the rejection of confrontation in favor of dialogue, the consequences of which will be reflected in Iran and the world for decades to come."

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"This landmark agreement means that lasted decades, the conflict is settled, that unilateral hostile actions and provocations, espionage or sabotage have given way to a wide dialogue and mutually beneficial cooperation." "The implementation of the conditions of the Agreement should mean a major restructuring of the country on the basis of openness and transparency ... The unfortunate slogan" Great Satan "should be sent to the trash, and in its place must come the reform, establishing the rule of law, equality, social cohesion and the emerging civil society" - these are just a few quotes from newspapers and websites of the Iranian "reform pool". Plan conversions, "creeping reforms" of the Iranian society, the economy and foreign policy, in the form of a document or a concept for public discussion shall not be imposed. What is absolutely clear, because the reaction of political and business circles, the public and its individual layers can be for the "reformers" very negative. But some of its provisions are quite obvious: - "Broad democratization", which means, first and foremost, limiting the influence of the clergy and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps on the society, rehabilitation of the leaders of the "Green Movement" and the removal of barriers to the penetration of Western ideals of "consumer society"; - The rejection of the "economy of resistance" and the implementation of the policy of "open doors" for Western consumer goods and foreign investment also. That fully meets the interests of the Iranian private wealth and smaller entrepreneurs in the field of finance and services; - Compromises in foreign policy, cooperation with the United States on the most pressing issues in the region and to support Syria and curtailment of movement "Shia Revival" from Arabia to Afghanistan. Equally obvious and applied implementation strategy of this plan, "creeping reforms" - a convincing victory in the parliamentary elections in 2016 and ensuring further election Hassan Rouhani and his team for a second term. Speculating on the hopes that were born in the community after the signing of the "Covenant of Vienna", maintaining the mood of the general euphoria, the Iranian "reformers", however, aware of the fragility of their situation. They understand that any significant positive effect of sanctions can be expected no earlier than next year. And all this time in front of them will be a very difficult task - to restrain the frustration of unfulfilled expectations of society that they have inspired this society. Before 15

Vienna it has been easier - all the failures in the economy could explain the sanctions and corruption of the previous administration. Who will be appointed as a "scapegoat" now? At the same time, the euphoria has reached such a degree that the victims of self-deception are themselves leaders of the opposition. Having read the newspapers "reform pool", July 17, to participate in the further democratization of Iran arrived Ismail Gerami Moghaddam, one of the most active and well-known assistant leader of the "Green Movement" Mehdi Karroubi. After the events of 2009 Moghaddam, for fear of reprisals, he moved to Malaysia. Who decided it was an opportune moment for the continuation of the "green". Wrong, was arrested at the airport of Imam Khomeini. What was an eloquent answer "conservatives" plans "creeping reforms." Supreme Leader and the preservation of the political balance Intrigue "reformers" who want to use the "Vienna pact" to bias in their favor political balance in the Iranian leadership to the Supreme Leader and those around him was evident from the start. But the problem was that the response to it should be balanced, taking into account the euphoria that environment Rouhani has managed to create in society. This required time. Letter Rowhani with a report on the arrangements made in Vienna and containing Rahbar gratitude for the "intellectual leadership" activities negotiators their "unwavering support" was sent to the Office of the Supreme Leader on July 14. The answer to this was given only knock later and was restrained stressed: "The text of the Agreement should be carefully studied and undergo a legal adoption. If it is approved, then efforts should be made to protect it from possible violations of the implementation of the other party. " But the final summary of the Supreme Leader followed on July 18 during his public appearances. Firstly, Ali Khamenei said that the statements of the American side that it was "forced Tehran to halt its nuclear program" are not baseless. And, by and large, this is the West made concessions, recognizing Iran's right to nuclear research continued. What do Rahbar said, it is "the result of the resistance of all the people and progress of our scientists." Second, the Supreme Leader stressed that the nuclear program is the only reason for the talks with the United States, and Iran's position in relation to other contentious issues of bilateral relations has not changed. "Our policy toward the arrogant United States remained unchanged. We are not and do not intend to conduct negotiations with the United States on other regional and global issues. " And, thirdly, Rahbar clearly and unambiguously stated that "regardless of the concluded Agreement, regardless of whether it is implemented or not - Iran will continue to support its friends in

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the region," the Palestinians, Yemenis, the Shiites of Iraq and Bahrain, Syria and the Lebanese Hezbollah. "The slogans of" Death to America "and" Death to Israel "and will continue to be heard on the streets of Iran," - said Rahbar, referring to his listeners. Enthusiastic cheers and unanimous approval of the participants were a response to the words of the Supreme Leader "- says one of the reports of the local press about public speech Ali Khamenei. At the same time Rahbar found it possible to express its approval of the activities of the Iranian negotiators in Vienna. Perhaps this is the main element of the response tactics, which "conservatives" gosudarstvenniki elected as a response to an attempt to "reformers" swept away the political balance in the country. The debate on the results of Vienna, of course, will be, but given the mood in society in general, "the Vienna pact", even with all the shortcomings will be approved by the political elites of Iran, and the approval process will take place in Parliament. But the political dialogue with the United States and the West will be completed. Its expansion and the associated "creeping reforms" and have the red line, which "conservatives" today outlined, and which are not going to cross. What makes clear speech and Rahbar, and restraint of conservative elites against the discussion of "the Vienna pact": "It is finished - it happened, but that our concessions to the West and reformers in the country ended." As for the economy, the majority of politicians and experts rightly believe that the problems of the economy of Iran will not disappear with the abolition of sanctions, and not in them, in fact, the case. As the Minister of Economy and Finance Ali Tayebniya here "problems are structural and require balanced and informed decisions, free from political considerations." *** Will the Conservatives effectively block plan "creeping reforms" and to prevent warping of the political balance in favor of opponents - time will tell. "Vienna Pact", among other consequences, has launched a serious political process in Iran. Contemporary Challenges, existing problems in the social and economic sphere, of course, require a response in the form of certain changes in society and in the management and structure of the national economy. Contrary to popular belief, Iranian conservatives realize this is no less the reformers of the president's entourage. But it is not considered the most important reform for the sake of reforms, but to preserve the values of the Islamic republic, social stability and political balance in society.

Link http://eng.iran.ru/news/analytics/249/Tehran_internal_political_intrigue_of_the_Vienna_pact 17

MOSCOW AND TEHRAN AFTER THE "VIENNA PACT": COSTS? July 22, 2015

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he tone of Russian observers commenting on the outcome of "the Vienna pact '- the Agreement on Iran's nuclear program - in most cases, sad and pessimistic. "Tehran chooses the West", "cooperation with Russia will be minimized," "the Iranian oil and gas

hurl energy market, thereby causing a further blow to the national economy." Are there grounds for such fears? Absolutely. Will they become unpleasant for Moscow tomorrow's reality? Here begin the nuances ... Numerous expert commentary on the impacts "of the Vienna pact" for Russia, is not only marked by pessimism, and lack of internal logic. On the one hand, the signing of the Vienna agreements domestic commentators try to present the victory of Russian diplomacy formulated these principles and approaches to the Iranian nuclear issue, which ensured the success of the negotiation process. On the other - in their speeches permeates the thought of what Tehran will initiate clotting cooperation with Moscow. It turns out that the "success" of Russian foreign policy, in this case lies in the fact that his own hands dug a hole for their own national interests. In reality, the problem is much deeper. And is that all these years, and Moscow viewed the Iranian nuclear program in particular, relations with Tehran as a whole through the prism of its relations with the United States and the European Union. No self "Iranian project" in Moscow did not exist, and request for extension of the partnership with Iran were on duty phrase that sounds whenever relations with Washington and Brussels have problems. Trying to sit on two chairs in the Iranian issue to many in Moscow's corridors of power seemed clever policy doomed to success. Say, for any developments in relations between Tehran and the United States and its allies - capitalizing on the role of mediator, Russia will win. Iran is watching these "sketches furnished" with frank bewilderment and more The growing distrust towards Moscow as a partner. In the US, over mleyuschimi from his own cunning Russian politicians openly laughed, and sometimes played along, they do not skimp, if necessary, and words of encouragement. Which means absolutely nothing, and showed that Washington immediately after Vienna. "Russia is helping us," - said Barack Obama in an interview with The New York Times. - "I will be honest with you, I was not sure, given the strong differences that we currently have with Russia on Ukraine whether it will continue. Putin and the Russian government considered these questions individually, so that I was

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surprised, and we would not have reached this agreement, if not Russia's willingness to stay on one side of us and the other members of the "5 + 1" in support of this important transaction " . After hearing from the lips like the American president, Moscow has already prepared to receive well-deserved, as she thought, political "commission" for his mediation efforts. Namely - I raised the issue that since the issue of Iran's nuclear program resolved, it would be nice to America is now refusing to announce plans to deploy in Europe missile defense system. And then he had a hard failure - the Iranian threat, is still preserved, and about any plans for a European missile defense coagulation can not be considered. Moreover, this refusal was accompanied by a mocking commentary in close to the White House Washington Times: “Russia expects the United States give up their defense efforts in Europe due to the fact that the deal with Iran was held ... capable of destroying warheads was the fact that since the days of Ronald Reagan afraid of the Soviet Union. This is what today really afraid of Russia. And only a fool would refuse defense in the present circumstances, when the Russian effort is to weaken American security”. Someone was expecting another decision? Russia is excluded from any further dialogue on Iran? Features of Moscow and continue to play the role of mediator in the Iranian nuclear program, or rather, now in the practical implementation of the "Vienna pact" greatly reduced. To a large extent because of the strange and inexplicable agreement between Russia and the resumption of the sanctions mechanism. Let me remind you that if the US and the "European troika" - London, Paris and Berlin Alleged violations by Iran of the final conditions of the Agreement and the issue is not resolved the conflict of the Commission, after thirty days, the sanctions will be resumed and special voting in the Security Council on this issue will not be held . That is, while agreeing with this mechanism legally enshrined in the United Nations a few days ago, Russia voluntarily gave up the right of veto on the "Iranian issue". I repeat - a concession to a serious and strange, because the right of veto in the UN Security Council - one of the most important conditions to enable the rest of the world to consider our state "of the first order." Talk about the fact that this concession compensates for compromise on the "arms embargo" does not withstand serious criticism. Under the terms of the final agreement, the delivery of offensive weapons to Iran is prohibited for a period of five years. What As for defensive weapons, here in the text, there is enough slurred disclaimer that its delivery, in principle, possible. As explained by Sergei 19

Lavrov, "Iranian colleagues (as you can imagine, they are the final word belonged to) have agreed to compromise. West initially insisted on maintaining the arms embargo on 8 or even 10 years. As a result, between the Iranians and Western counterparts a compromise was reached with China, which we, of course, supported, given that Tehran is arranged - for a five-year period the supply of arms to Iran are possible with the passage of the appropriate notification procedures and verification by the UN Security Council. " Which, all things considered, it is highly unlikely. All this allows the commentators in Russia, and Iran claims that as a mediator in the dialogue with the US and its allies of Moscow is no longer any interest for Tehran. In reality, some leverage to influence the situation remained. No matter how trying the Washington and "European trio" restrict the participation of Russia in the implementation of the final agreement, fully do they failed. First of all, under the terms of "the Vienna pact", more than nine tons of low-enriched Iranian uranium should be shipped to Russia, an international center in Angarsk (Irkutsk region). In exchange, Moscow would supply Tehran for research and medical purposes, a certain amount of natural uranium. In addition, it is the Russian specialists will reprofiling plant in Ford and the creation there of isotope production for medical purposes. Since the implementation of these two objectives is one of the most important conditions, "the Vienna pact," the early conclusion of the Iranian-Russian agreement on their implementation will be a powerful argument Tehran's readiness to comply with the terms of the Agreement, with all the attendant political implications. The process of implementation of the agreements reached in Vienna, and, accordingly, removal from Iran sanctions, designed for ten years. All this time, as a full member of the "Six" international mediators and a permanent member of the UN Security Council, Russia retains leverage over the process, albeit with limited features. The question is whether it wants to use them for the development of Iran-Russian relations. Or, again, prefer to build their participation in policy implementation "of the Vienna pact," looking at the position of Washington and its allies? However, the answer to this question is closely connected with another: what form will the Iran-Russia relations after the agreement in Vienna and whether they will accept at least some form of general? Iranian-Russian partnership: envelope In a statement on the results of the Vienna agreement, President Vladimir Putin said that "a new impetus receive our bilateral relations with Iran on the development of which will no longer affect the external factors." In the coming years, and the world, and Russia will be able to test the sincerity of those words. 20

In Tehran, is sufficient as the active opponents of the development of bilateral relations and to question their appropriateness. "Vienna pact" in a sense, will only strengthen their position. Iranian reformists, who are already used to just put up a course on the development of partnership relations with Moscow, especially since the other option was not, and now even more energetic leadership and will convince the public that cooperation with Russia does not make sense. And every effort should focus on the development of trade and economic partnership with the West. At their disposal are two strong arguments. Investment and technology - that is a priority need for the country's economy. Here Russia is not a competitor to the West, and if for individual technologies can argue, then the financial possibilities of western capital "fashioned" Moscow in the net. In addition, a major Russian business plans in relation to the Iranian market - if any exist seriously - can begin to realize just having secured approval of Western partners and shareholders. And there's nothing to the Russian President, unfortunately, can not do enough to remember the story with Sberbank, a majority of which seem to be as long as the state, through its management flatly refused to work in the Russian Crimea already. Fearing criticism in the form of sanctions by the Western financial circles. You can think of these two barrier to Iranian-Russian relations - comparative technological backwardness and financial dependence on the West - as a tragedy and insurmountable obstacle. But it is possible - and as a challenge that requires an adequate response. Firstly, the western financial and industrial capital does not intend, and is not ready to immediately begin expansion in the Iranian market. And even when it starts, a priority for him will be to meet consumer demand of the Iranian society and not participate in the high-tech projects. That is the niche Russia remains, and it is quite spacious. Leave beyond the military-technical cooperation. Here Russia itself into a dead end, and all the problems created by their own hands. Do not talk about oil and gas - as groundless rumors about the "apocalypse of the energy market," said on these topics on Iran.ru repeatedly. There are other areas where cooperation is beneficial both Moscow and Tehran. Nuclear power with very real plans for the construction of additional units of the Bushehr nuclear power plant. Cooperation in the field of Iranian railways - from the supply of rolling stock to participate in the electrification and modernization of roads. Joint space programs - from preparing a manned flight to the joint development of a much needed "heavy" satellites and displays them on a geostationary orbit. The list goes up to agricultural projects and ports on the Caspian Sea, but already listed enough to understand - the prospects for Iranian-Russian trade and economic partnership at the national level is, and they are considerable.

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Secondly, what is most urgent, but somehow rarely mentioned tasks involved in Iran's main project of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization - "the economic space of the new Silk Road." This collaboration between Moscow and Beijing, among other things, be able to give Tehran access to much-needed financial resources from banking institutions, which are planned to be created in the SCO. *** After signing the "Vienna pact" relations between Russia and Iran are moving to a new, more sophisticated level. Time contraption sitting on two chairs waiting for commissions for intermediary for Moscow ended. By and large, ten years removed from Iran sanctions is the period for which Washington and its allies intend to "drag" Tehran on its side, replacing the current leadership in "their". If you need - bringing the "erosion of the regime" to a critical point. If necessary - to organize the apical coup disguised as the "green revolution." Emerged after Vienna reality is a challenge to Moscow, which will require the Russian government adequate and prompt response. But most importantly - will require political will and honest answer to the question of how ready the Kremlin on Iran to pursue an independent policy.

Link http://eng.iran.ru/news/analytics/251/Moscow_and_Tehran_after_the_Vienna_pact_costs

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