Estimación de la producción de acero bruto de China para el trienio 2014-2016 mediante modelo lineal

In order to propose a mathematical model to estimate China crude steel production (PAB) for 2014-2016 trienniums, it was made multiple linear regressions by successive steps method by means of SPSS software, using next variables: China urban population (PU), China final consumer expenditures annual variations (∆GCF3P), China annual variation of gross domestic saving (∆AIB), (China steel intensity of consume (IC) and the ratio total fixed assets investment to current gross domestic product (ITAF/PIBn); these variables were lagged towards past years alternatively looking for to get the best model to explain  PAB until 2013; after obtaining the model proposed in this paper, which explain the PAB in 99.8 % with 95 % of confidence, it was used it to estimate PAB on 2014-2016 trienniums by the means of a couple of simulations of 10,000 iterations, each one, getting the more probable PAB’s for the triennium would be 797.75 million ton (Mt), 829.80 Mt and 877.49 Mt, respectively.