energy efficiencies
Descripción
Energy Efficiency: An engine for growth and development Philippe Benoit Head, Energy Efficiency and Environment Division, IEA 8 June 2015
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EE: an important role?
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Energy efficiency can help drive economic prosperity GDP in Efficient World Scenario versus New Policies Scenario, 2035 4%
3%
2%
1%
Japan & Korea
OECD Europe
United States
China
India
Cumulative investments in energy efficiency of $12 trillion are more than offset by fuel savings & trigger economic growth of a cumulative $18 trillion © OECD/IEA 2012
EE: Big, invisible and ignored
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IEA fuel market reports
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EE: Inputs Investments
© OECD/IEA 2014
Global Energy Efficiency Market Estimated to be between USD 310-360 billion/yr Monte Carlo: Distribution of energy efficiency market estimation
250
Frequency
200 150
100 50 0 200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
>600
USD Billion
Signals point to further growth © OECD/IEA 2014
USD billion
EE vs other supply (2011) 700 600
500 400 300
Estimated range of USD 147 to 300 billion
200 100 0 Upstream oil Coal, oil and Renewable and gas * gas electricity electricity generation *** generation ** Sources: BNEF, IEA
IEA EEMR 2013
Energy efficiency
R
(2012)
s © OECD/IEA 2014
A EE’s untapped potential
Energy efficiency potential used by sector in the WEO 2012 New Policies Scenario
100%
Unrealised energy efficiency potential
80%
Realised energy efficiency potential
60% 40% 20% Industry
Transport
Power generation
Buildings
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EE: Outputs
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Facing up to the Fuels Competition
EE keeps producing : 1999
Energy Efficiency
1999
2004
2004
2015
2015 © OECD/IEA 2014
EE: Big part of energy landscape TFC fuels (IEA-11) incl. EE savings
Output - Energy efficiency: the ‘first fuel’ 4 000
Hypothetical energy use had there been no energy efficiency improvements
3 500
Mtoe
3 000 2 500
Savings
Oil
Gas
2 000 Coal
1 500
Total Final Consumption
1 000 500
Electricity
Other 0 1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
*IEA-11: Australia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom, United States © OECD/IEA 2014
Energy efficiency: the ‘first fuel’ Supplied (1336 Mtoe) more in 2011 to meet energy service demand than oil (1200 Mtoe), electricity (552 Mtoe), natural gas (509 Mtoe) in IEA-11* Total final consumption of fuels and energy savings from energy efficiency in 11 IEA countries in 2011
Mtoe
1 400
1 200
TFC
1 000 800
600 400 200 0 Oil
Gas
Coal
Electricity
Other
Efficiency savings
*IEA-11: Australia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom, United States © OECD/IEA 2014
EE: an invisible power-house Energy efficiency savings in IEA-11 countries rival TFC of major energy consuming countries and regions (e.g., EE improvements over the last 4 decades saved more energy in 2011 than TFC in EU) 1 800 1 600 1 400
TFC
Mtoe
1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 0
Energy efficiency Asia (excluding savings of 11 IEA China) member countries
China
EU
United States
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EE: Looking beyond savings to raising standards of living © OECD/IEA 2014
EE: Looking beyond savings to raising standards of living © OECD/IEA 2014
EU looks to EE to reduce primary energy consumption
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Decoupling GDP from Energy … 20 000
160 000 140 000
18 000
120 000
Mtoe
100 000 14 000
80 000
60 000
USD Billions 2005 PPP
16 000 TPES 6DS GDP (right axis)
12 000 40 000 10 000 20 000 8 000
0 2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026 © OECD/IEA 2014
Decoupling GDP from Energy … 20 000
160 000 140 000
18 000
120 000
Mtoe
100 000 14 000
80 000
60 000
USD Billions 2005 PPP
16 000 TPES 6DS GDP (right axis)
12 000 40 000 10 000 20 000 8 000
0 2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026 © OECD/IEA 2014
Decoupling GDP from Energy … 20 000
160 000 140 000
18 000
120 000
Mtoe
100 000 14 000
80 000
60 000
USD Billions 2005 PPP
16 000 TPES 6DS GDP (right axis)
12 000 40 000 10 000 20 000 8 000
0 2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026 © OECD/IEA 2014
Decoupling GDP from Energy … 20 000
160 000 140 000
18 000
120 000
Mtoe
100 000 14 000
80 000
60 000
USD Billions 2005 PPP
16 000 TPES BAU-Low EE 6DS
GDP (right axis)
12 000 40 000 10 000 20 000 8 000
0 2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026 © OECD/IEA 2014
Decoupling GDP from Energy … 20 000
160 000 140 000
18 000
120 000
Mtoe
100 000 14 000
80 000
60 000 12 000
USD Billions 2005 PPP
16 000 TPES 6DS BAU-Low EE 4DS 2DS High Productivity GDP (right axis)
40 000 10 000 20 000 8 000
0 2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026 © OECD/IEA 2014
Energy efficiency for many emerging economies:
from “doing more with less” to
to ”doing even more with more”
© OECD/IEA 2014
Energy efficiency for many emerging economies: from
“doing more with less” to ”doing even more with more” © OECD/IEA 2014
Transport: a shift in geography Incremental transport demand estimated to come from nonOECD: source for demand translates into EE market opportunity Freight
Passenger
70 000
30 000
60 000
25 000
Billion tkm
Billion pkm
50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000
20 000
15 000 10 000 5 000
0 2000
2005
2010
2015
OECD
2020
Non-OECD
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
World
Source: Energy Technology Perspectives, IEA © OECD/IEA 2014
Shifting mobility demand growth Personal passenger light vehicles: Drivers of demand
Developed economies
Developing regions
Structural effect
Income effect
Sources: elaboration of national and international databases, building on the information referenced in UNECE, 2012 © OECD/IEA 2014
Shifting mobility demand growth Passenger vehicle growth to 2050 (6DS)
Source: IEA Mobility Model
Large projected increase in non-OECD countries © OECD/IEA 2014
Transport: Broad use of vehicle fuel economy standards Vehicle fuel economy standards (VFE) affect 70% of global new vehicle fleet (50 million vehicles in 2011) Standards could achieve between USD 40 and 190 billion in fuel savings by 2020 pending ambition and effectiveness
Enacted fuel economy standards for personal vehicles 28
European Union Japan India China Korea United States Mexico Canada
26
km/lge
24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Source: Global fuel economy initiative © OECD/IEA 2014
EE: multiple benefits for emerging economies and others
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Exploiting the multiple benefits of EE
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Energy efficiency is . . .
a domestic fuel (‘the home-grown fuel’) Microsoft.com © OECD/IEA 2014
Impact of EE improvements since 1990 … Total EE savings = 196 Mtoe
TFC for USA (2012)
Other Savings, 196 97
Other 97 Electricity, 321
Electricity, 321
Oil, 719 Oil, 719
Natural gas, 296
Natural gas, 296
Total TFC = 1,432 Mtoe Total TFC (EE adjusted)= 1,629 Mtoe © OECD/IEA 2014
TFC for USA (2012)
Other 97
Electricity, 321 Oil, 719
Natural gas, 296
Total TFC = 1,432 Mtoe
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Exploiting the multiple benefits of EE
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Portfolio of actions to reduce energy sector emissions Gt CO2
60 Nuclear 7%
50 Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 2%
40
Renewables 30%
30 End-use fuel switching 9%
20 CCS 14%
10 0 2011
End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%
2020
2030
2040
2050
© OECD/IEA 2014
Portfolio of actions to reduce energy sector emissions EE provides largest contribution to abatement Gt CO2
60 50 Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 2%
40 30 20 10 0 2011
End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%
2020
2030
2040
2050
© OECD/IEA 2014
Exploiting the multiple benefits of EE
© OECD/IEA 2014
Dirty air prompts free public transport in Paris Public transportation in the capital will be "gratuit" from Friday morning to Sunday night, as officials battle against a spike in "dangerously" poor air quality. Velib' rental bikes and the car-sharing Autolib' scheme are also on the house.
Shifting to more efficient transport to fight air pollution March 11, 2014
Credit: Patrick Kovarik AFP© OECD/IEA 2014
Exploiting the multiple benefits of EE
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EE Important for developing countries Energy access
Helping countries to expand access, effectively enabling them to supply power to more people through the existing energy infrastructure.
Economic development
Supporting economic growth through various aggregate benefits, for example by improving industrial productivity and reducing fuel import bills.
Poverty alleviation
Increasing the affordability of energy services for poorer families by reducing the per-unit cost of lighting, heating, refrigeration and other services.
Combatting local pollution
Reducing the need for energy generation – and lower associated emissions – through energy efficiency measures on both supply side and demand side.
Climate change resilience
Reducing the need for energy infrastructure, energy efficiency reduces the amount of energy assets exposed to extreme weather events.
Multiple benefits are of particular importance for emerging economies and developing countries
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Designing analytic tools:
motivation counts
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What about where reducing energy consumption is less important than raising standards of living?
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United States
United Kingdom
Switzerland
Sweden
Spain
New Zealand
GJ/m² 0.07
Netherlands
Australia Austria Canada Czech… Finland France Germany Italy Ireland Korea Netherl… New… Slovak… Spain Sweden Switzer… United… United…
10
Korea
0
Japan
20
Italy
Greece
Germany
France
Finland
Czech Republic
Canada
25
Austria
Australia
GJ/occupied dwelling
Developing country context may require adjustment to metrics Residential lighting intensity
0.06 2001
0.05
0.04 Residential energy intensity of water0.03 heating 2006
0.02 2001
15
5 2011
0.01
2006
2011
0
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‘Energy intensity’ to ‘Energy productivity’
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Some conclusions
Energy Efficiency is a strong and sound tool to promote growth and development © OECD/IEA 2014
Some conclusions … but Energy Efficiency: is under-appreciated is under-utilized requires more analysis, understanding and support … to produce its multiple benefits. This E4 training week is part of the effort © OECD/IEA 2014
Thank You
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