561335
research-article2015
WES0010.1177/0950017014561335Work, employment and societyVono de Vilhena et al.
Article
Does adult education contribute to securing nonprecarious employment? A cross-national comparison
Work, employment and society 1–21 © The Author(s) 2015 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav DOI: 10.1177/0950017014561335 wes.sagepub.com
Daniela Vono de Vilhena Population Europe Secretariat, Germany
Yuliya Kosyakova
European University Institute, Italy
Elina Kilpi-Jakonen University of Turku, Finland
Patricia McMullin
European University Institute, Italy
Abstract The objective of this article is to analyse the effect of acquiring a new formal qualification as an adult (measured as an upgrade or a side-step) on the likelihood of being in non-precarious employment. Three countries with similar longitudinal datasets are compared: Spain, the UK and Russia. The results indicate that adult education is beneficial in the three countries; with differences, however, depending on the definition of precarious employment used and the (previous) employment status of individuals. The findings suggest that the differences among countries are related to different labour market structures: adult education has a clearer beneficial impact on accessing and remaining in non-precarious employment in more flexible employment systems than in more rigid insider-outsider economies, where labour trajectories are strongly determined by what happens during the first years after school.
Keywords adult education, precarious employment, Russia, Spain, UK Corresponding author: Daniela Vono de Vilhena, Population Europe Secretariat, Markgrafenstr. 37, 10117 Berlin, Germany. Email:
[email protected]
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Introduction Precarious employment is a core concern in modern societies and an increasing trend worldwide (Kalleberg, 2009) – to the extent that the global panorama has been referred to as The Precarious New World (Zimmermann, 2012). The term relates to the spread of workers in precarious positions, without employment or social security. Recent evidence suggests that this phenomenon is increasing among all occupational levels, including the traditionally protected, skilled and often highly unionized workforces of large firms (Holst, 2013; Kalleberg, 2012). The growing uncertainty about individuals’ employment prospects impacts not only on their careers but also on their welfare entitlements, health and social relations (Barbieri and Scherer, 2008; Castells, 1996; Giddens, 1998). Ultimately, these developments compound the growth of economic inequality within societies and are clearly reflected in mass social movements such as Occupy Wall Street in the USA or Indignados in Spain (Standing, 2011). Is this a path of no return? Previous analyses have focused on the social structure to answer this question. As the growth of precariousness in recent decades is mostly related to changed economic and political forces, researchers’ interest has been devoted to exploring effective policies and structural changes in employment relations. In this context, less attention has been paid to the sphere of workers’ agency (Kalleberg, 2009). At the individual level, acquiring human capital should be an important means of escaping precariousness: employers are expected to offer secure and high quality jobs to their more productive employees (i.e. those with higher human capital) in order to both attract and keep them (Young, 2010). Accordingly, since new educational qualifications should lead to higher productivity – or at least function as signals of higher productivity – they should also be associated with positive labour market returns. However, the evidence so far is mixed. A number of researchers have indeed found the expected association between education level and reduced precariousness. For instance, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD, 2002) reports a 60 per cent higher rate of temporary employment for individuals who did not complete upper secondary education in comparison to their more educated counterparts. Previous research also demonstrates that mobility into permanent jobs is lower for less educated workers. Kalleberg (2011) finds that in the USA, individuals with less education are more vulnerable to precarious jobs than those with more education. In contrast, some evidence suggests that precarious employment may constitute a ‘trap’ for individuals’ careers, questioning the positive role of education in the transition to ‘good’ employment positions (Gash, 2008; Scherer, 2004). In Italy, the initial educational level does not seem to play an important role in exiting from precarious employment (Barbieri and Scherer, 2008), while in Germany and the UK, the likelihood of holding a fixed-term contract actually increases with the educational level (Kim and Kurz, 2001). The examples above relate to individuals’ initial education and its effects on employment outcomes. To date, very little is known about the effect of education acquired later in life, when any improvement in human capital implies adult learning. Adult learning has been recognized as being of increasing importance in the global and aging societies that we live in and in particular for the labour market integration of individuals who have become marginalized (European Commission, 2014; OECD, 2004). Indeed, evidence
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suggests that some of the groups overlooked by employers when it comes to on the job training have a higher likelihood of participating in other types of adult learning (McMullin and Kilpi-Jakonen, 2014). However, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, no study has looked at the role of formal adult learning on trajectories towards nonprecarious employment so far. In this article, the focus is on the role that completing formal education as an adult plays in the probability of securing non-precarious employment in the first decade of the 21st century in three different modern economies: Spain (specifically Catalonia), Russia and the UK. This article examines non-precarious employment using two different definitions: firstly in terms of job security and secondly as working full time and receiving wages above working poor levels. The next section reviews the relevant literature. Following this section, country-specific hypotheses are derived on the basis of national institutional settings. Afterwards the data, methods and results are presented. The article finishes with a discussion of the findings in relation to the initial hypotheses.
Adult learning and job mobility – a literature review The theoretical explanations that link initial educational attainment with labour market outcomes can also be used to link new educational qualifications obtained as an adult with transitions from precarious to non-precarious employment. Overall, most theoretical frameworks would predict that adult learning should increase an individual’s likelihood of accessing non-precarious employment, particularly when the adult learning obtained is an educational upgrade. Although different theories assume vastly different relationships between education and productivity, whether the human capital (Becker, 1975), signalling (Spence, 1973) or credentialism (Collins, 1979) perspective is taken, it can be expected that educational upgrades lead to improved access to non-precarious employment. However, empirical evidence on the effects of adult learning on the chances of securing non-precarious employment is scarce. Research on the impact of adult learning on careers is mostly focused on changes in income from a linear perspective, meaning that it is not possible to identify the transition from working poor to a decent job. Generally, these analyses compare individuals graduating at younger ages with mature graduates, showing a disadvantaged pattern for the latter (e.g. Elman and O’Rand, 2004; Purcell et al., 2007). The comparison between upgraders and adults who did not upgrade after labour market entry or the analysis of the impact of upgrading on an individual’s life course tend to show either no effect on income (e.g. Jenkins et al., 2003) or a positive effect (e.g. Blanden et al., 2012; Hällsten, 2012). In terms of employment probabilities, positive returns to an upgrade as an adult have been found in Sweden, Spain, the UK and Russia (Hällsten, 2012; Jenkins et al., 2003; Kilpi-Jakonen et al., 2012). Institutional settings are expected to play a key role on returns to adult learning: new qualifications may not necessarily provide access to non-precarious jobs in all institutional settings (Kalleberg, 2012; Van de Werfhorst, 2011). For the context analysed in this article, the main influencing factor at the country level is argued to be the labour market structure, with some impact from the educational system. Insider-outsider theory (Lindbeck and Snower, 1986) is particularly useful for understanding the labour market
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structures that influence individuals’ opportunities of moving to non-precarious employment. The theory’s starting point is the importance of turnover costs in market economies and how difficult it is to dismiss employees and to hire and train new workers. When turnover costs are high and employers are restricted in their freedom to dismiss workers with indefinite contracts, lower downward mobility for insiders and less hiring and firing is found (Lindbeck and Snower, 2002). This means that labour market outsiders (in particular those without indefinite contracts) have lower chances to move into non-precarious employment, whether inside the same company or to another company. In addition, churn dynamics prevail among outsiders: it is difficult for those who start working in precarious jobs to move towards non-precarious ones and the tendency is for these workers to hold a string of such jobs over time (Cutuli and Guetto, 2012; MacInnes, 2009). In these situations, the value of adult learning is also expected to be lower because its chances for improving individuals’ labour market situations are more restricted. It has been shown that national educational systems influence the way that initial education relates to occupational attainment in different societies (e.g. Müller and Shavit, 1998). Evidence demonstrates that in highly stratified and standardized educational systems, credentials have a strong signalling effect, which in turn reduces the probability of job mobility. In weakly stratified and standardized systems in turn, the possibility of job mobility is much higher. However, relatively little is known with regard to how educational systems affect the link between adult learning and occupational attainment. Since the analysis in the present article is concerned with job mobility within the labour market rather than the initial school-to-work transition, employment systems are likely to exert a stronger effect than do the respective educational systems.
National institutional settings and hypotheses In this section, the main institutional constraints that may constitute obstacles for the positive impact of adult learning on career progress in Spain, the UK and Russia are described. In Spain, the labour market is characterized by high turnover costs, meaning that an insider-outsider model of job relations prevails. Labour mobility from one segment to the other is rather low and mechanisms of career progression differ substantially for insiders and outsiders. Among insiders, investments in human capital and seniority are often mentioned as being among the strongest elements influencing upward mobility of employees. In turn for outsiders, churn dynamics prevail (MacInnes, 2009). The signalling power of certificates is generally rather weak in the country; there is a lack of emphasis on specific skills and the standardization and stratification of the educational system are characterized as low (Bernardi, 2012; Breen, 2005). Because qualifications do not provide clear information about skills, employers tend to value ascriptive characteristics when recruiting or promoting employees. Therefore, an educational upgrade later in life is not expected to give a strong signal to employers in terms of productivity or skills, though they may provide a signal of motivation. Previous findings on the impact of adult learning on career progress in Spain show that mature graduates barely benefit from their educational upgrade in terms of employment or class mobility, despite being relatively positively selected (Vono de Vilhena and Miret Gamundi, 2014).
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Overall, following a conservative hypothesis derived from insider-outsider theory: H1) Adult learning is not expected to increase the likelihood of accessing non-precarious employment. Nonetheless, H2) A positive effect of adult learning for those already in non-precarious employment as a preventive mechanism of downward mobility can be expected. In the UK, labour market mobility is much higher and turnover costs are lower than in Spain. Specifically, restrictions on dismissal are relatively weak, although discharging long-serving employees is relatively costly. Another distinguishing feature is that temporary contracts are mostly used as a probation device for permanent positions (Booth, 2002). Therefore, labour market characteristics do not constitute barriers for adult learning to improve the chances of obtaining non-precarious employment. Previous research indicates that adult learning can improve employment probabilities as well as earnings and prestige mobility in the UK (Blanden et al., 2012; Jenkins et al., 2003; McMullin and Kilpi-Jakonen, 2014). Nevertheless, it should also be recognized that, as in Spain, the link between certificates and employment outcomes is relatively weak in the UK due to the complexity of the educational system and its decentralization and low standardization. In particular, after many consecutive educational reforms, the distinction between postcompulsory courses offered in schools and further education colleges is increasingly blurred (Eurydice, 2003). Therefore, it may also be the case that additional certificates obtained later in life may not have a strong productivity signalling effect on employers. Russia has similar institutional structures to the UK, although with its own particularities. The level of employment protection in the country is relatively high in formal terms but standards are not heavily enforced (Gimpelson et al., 2010). Other important features of the Russian labour market are its volatility and the weak collective bargaining power of workers and trade unions, suggesting low turnover costs. These factors combined imply high labour mobility and should thus allow for positive effects from adult learning, similar to that observed in the UK. Supporting this hypothesis, previous research finds that some types of adult learning increase employment chances and improve career paths in Russia (Kosyakova, 2014). The Russian educational system is characterized by a high level of standardization (Russian Ministry of Education, 2012), which theoretically should provide strong signals from certification to employers. However, this is not the case, due to the process of educational expansion and credential inflation (Larionova and Meshkova, 2007), low public expenditures on education and the valorization of specific aspects of credentials such as the prestige of institutions, which mean that the link between the educational system and the labour market is very weak in Russia (Bühler and Konietzka, 2011; Gerber, 2003). Therefore, the expectation is that the chances of getting a non-precarious employment position may increase with adult learning, not necessarily because of the value of the certificate itself but due to its motivation signalling effect. Considering the similarities between the UK and Russia, the hypothesis for both countries is the same:
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Work, employment and society H3) Adult learning is expected to increase the likelihood of accessing non-precarious employment. H4) This effect is expected for all individuals, independently of whether they are in non-precarious positions or not.
Data and methods Rodgers (1989) has defined precarious employment in terms of its different dimensions: temporal (degree of certainty over the continuity of employment), organizational (for example in terms of working conditions, working time, shifts and work intensity), economic (sufficient pay and salary progression) and social (protection against unfair dismissal or discrimination; and social protection). In this article, two broad indicators for non-precarious employment based on Rodgers’ typology are defined, specifically based on 1) temporal and social aspects and 2) organizational and economic aspects. The definition of non-precarious job in terms of organizational and economic aspects is the same for the three countries: non-precarious jobs are those that are both full time and with wages above working poor level. In concordance with the OECD definition, full-time workers are all those whose average working week is 30 hours or more.1 Being working poor was measured as earning less than two thirds of the national median net wage of full-time employed individuals (defined separately for each wave). To capture regional differences in Russia and the UK, where wages are strongly variable, the median for each region was considered separately. In Catalonia, no regional differences were considered. The measurement of the dependent variable in terms of temporal and social aspects was not identical in all countries because the available information differs from survey to survey. For Russia, non-precarious jobs were defined as those with social benefits (both regular paid vacation and paid sick leave) and a written contract. For Spain, nonprecarious jobs are those where the person has an indefinite contract or works in the public sector. Public employment refers specifically to statutory permanent posts (funcionarios de carrera), which were considered one of the most secure and stable contracts before the 2012 reforms in Spain. For the UK, non-precarious jobs are those where the individual has an indefinite contract (excluding zero-hour contracts). Longitudinal panel datasets were used for all three countries. These three datasets are highly comparable to each other and use a similar survey methodology. For Russia, the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS-HSE)2 was used. The analysis was restricted to the years 2000–2010 for the analyses of non-precarious jobs in terms of the organizational and economic aspects and to the years 2002–10 for the analyses of non-precarious jobs in terms of the temporal and social aspects due to the availability of relevant information. The Panel Survey on Inequalities in Catalonia (PaD)3 was used for Spain, with data from the years 2002–9. The PaD is not representative for the whole of Spain, but only for Catalonia. However, this is the best available data for
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longitudinal research on educational and employment trajectories in Spain and the relevant institutions in Catalonia are similar to those in the rest of the country. Finally, the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS)4 was analysed for the UK. The analysis was restricted to the years 1999–2008, also in accordance with the availability of relevant information.5 Formal adult learning was defined as an educational qualification that is obtained at an age at least three years older than the median graduation age for the specific level of education. Respondents’ observations in the waves that led up to graduation within the ‘normal age range’ and those who reported being full-time students for an ageappropriate qualification were excluded from the samples, as were those who were defined as being too young to be (potential) adult learners. The upper age for the observational window is 49 years old due to the decrease in both adult learning and (non-) precarious employment for higher age groups. However, choosing a higher age cut-off would not affect the main results. Self-employed individuals were also excluded from the samples. Two types of adult learning were examined, as they may lead to different results (Li et al., 2000): educational upgrades (in all three countries) and educational side-steps (in Russia and the UK). Adult upgraders are individuals who obtained an additional qualification higher than their initial qualification, while adult side-steppers include individuals who obtained an additional qualification at the same level or lower compared to the initial qualification. The data contain multiple observations per individual and the binary dependent variable was analysed with random effects linear probability models in order to make the results more comparable across models and countries. A fixed effects linear specification was also used, restricting the sample to those who experienced a change (dropping those with stable career paths) during the observation period (as would happen in a fixed effects logistic regression). The random effects estimator is unbiased if unobserved heterogeneity is randomly distributed and is not correlated with the model parameters. This estimator is often preferred over the fixed effect estimator in sociological literature, as it allows the estimation of time-invariant parameters and is more efficient (Brüderl, 2010). However, it is likely that time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity impacts upon both employment status and participation in formal adult learning. In contrast, the fixed effects specifications account for the time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity, while allowing for time-variant within-individual differences. A Hausman test was also conducted to assess the suitability of the two models, with the fixed effects specification being preferred in all cases. The dependent variable in all models was the probability of having a non-precarious job at time t. To study the long-term effect of formal adult learning on the transition to non-precarious employment, obtaining formal adult learning was measured in t-1 or earlier during the observation period (H1 and H3).6 Interactions between formal adult learning in t-1 (or earlier) and employment status in t-1 were also included to test specific hypotheses (H2 and H4). Educational level was measured as the level before obtaining the first observed adult education. Place of residence, age and age squared, gender, children under three years old in the household, marital status and wave were included as control variables (in t).
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Table 1. Proportion of adult learners in Catalonia, the UK and Russia.
Catalonia As % Individuals The UK As % Individuals Russia As % Individuals
Non-precarious jobs defined in terms of temporal and social aspects (a)
Non-precarious jobs defined in terms of organizational and economic aspects (b)
Analytical sample
Adult upgrader
Analytical sample
100% 2325
6.49% 151
100% 10,342
17.72% 1833
100% 9173
5.12% 470
Adult sidestepper – –
Adult upgrader
100% 2297
7.31% 168
13.35% 1381
100% 10,304
17.67% 1821
4.95% 454
100% 9838
5.78% 569
Adult sidestepper – – 13.32% 1373 6.03% 593
Source: Own calculation based on RLMS-HSE (a: 2002–10, b: 2000–2010) for Russia, BHPS (1999–2008) for the UK and PaD (2002–9) for Catalonia. Note: Adult learning is defined as obtaining adult learning at any time during the observation period.
Results Descriptive results Table 1 gives a brief overview about the proportion of individuals who obtained formal adult learning during the observation period. The participation rates in the UK were much higher than those in Spain and Russia. In the UK, approximately 17 per cent of the individuals in the sample gained an upgrade and 13 per cent were side-steppers. In Catalonia, approximately 7 per cent gained an upgrade and in Russia 5–6 per cent gained an upgrade and a similar proportion were side-steppers. It should be noted that the proportion who upgraded in Catalonia could be expected to be slightly higher if the survey period were as long as in the other two countries. Within the final sample, precarious employment in terms of social aspects was found to be most prevalent in Catalonia (23% of all yearly observations, but 15% in Russia and 3% in the UK). In the case of precarious jobs in terms of organizational and economic aspects, the highest rate of precarious employment was found in Russia (33% compared with 25% in Spain and 25% in the UK). These country differences remained stable even when the proportion in precarious employment among only the employed was considered. Table 2 depicts the dynamics of employment status in the three countries in terms of transition rates into and out of non-precarious jobs. Overall, there was great stability in all three countries when it came to staying in non-precarious jobs and more heterogeneity when it came to transitions into non-precarious jobs, particularly when defined in terms of temporal and social aspects. In line with expectations, there were proportionately fewer individuals entering these types of jobs in Catalonia (e.g. the yearly transition rate from precarious to non-precarious jobs is 16%) and the most in the UK (58%), with
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Vono de Vilhena et al. Table 2. Dynamics of employment status in Catalonia, the UK and Russia (row percentages).
Non-precarious job in t
No
Yes
N
No
Yes
N
Employment status in t-1
Non-precarious job in t
7.29 83.80 86.70 94.53 38.68
92.71 16.20 13.30 5.47 61.32
4595 1753 421 805 7574
10.10 76.23 71.92 91.77 36.40
89.90 23.77 28.08 8.23 63.60
4584 1489 438 826 7337
Employment status in t-1
Non-precarious jobs defined in terms of organizational and economic aspects(b)
5.13 41.76 61.46 89.04 22.40
94.87 58.24 38.54 10.96 77.60
38,626 1626 1230 8,822 50,304
8.18 83.57 79.18 96.68 44.33
91.82 16.43 20.82 3.32 55.67
27,486 12,492 1220 8807 50,005
Employment status in t-1
Non-precarious jobs defined in terms of temporal and social aspects (a)
12.16 71.28 74.32 87.09 37.38
87.84 28.72 25.68 12.91 62.72
22,221 5508 2227 5793 35,749
25.92 68.81 80.54 91.93 54.87
74.08 31.19 19.46 8.07 45.13
17,919 13,515 2878 6916 41,228
Catalonia Non-precarious job Precarious job Unemployed Not in labour force Total The UK Non-precarious job Precarious job Unemployed Not in labour force Total Russia Non-precarious job Precarious job Unemployed Not in labour force Total
Source: Own calculation based on RLMS-HSE (a: 2002–10, b: 2000–2010) for Russia, BHPS (1999–2008) for the UK and PaD (2002–9) for Catalonia.
Russia in between (29%). The same country pattern held for transitions from unemployment and outside the labour force to non-precarious jobs. With regard to non-precarious jobs in terms of organizational and economic aspects, the country differences were less clear-cut, with movements into non-precarious jobs being least frequent in the UK (e.g. the yearly transition rate from precarious to nonprecarious jobs is 16%) and tending to be most frequent in Russia (31%), although the difference between Catalonia (24%) and Russia was not as big as for the first definition. In fact, when it came to movements from unemployment to non-precarious jobs, the proportion was slightly higher in Catalonia (23%) than in Russia (19%).
Labour market impact of adult learning For each of the three countries and the two definitions of non-precarious employment, three models are presented. The first model shows the main effect of adult learning (this model includes all the control variables). In the second model, an interaction between
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adult learning and previous employment status is added. Finally in a third model, fixed effects results are presented in order to analyse the role of adult learning only among (and ‘within’) individuals with unstable careers. Considering non-precarious employment in terms of temporal and social aspects in Catalonia (Table 3), no overall effect of upgrading on being employed in a nonprecarious job was seen either in the model for the whole sample (Model 1.1) or when restricting the analysis for individuals with changes in their careers (Model 1.3). The results for interaction effects between adult learning and employment status did not show any significant differences, meaning that adult learning did not have a significant impact for any of the groups (Model 1.2). Regarding the results for organizational and economic aspects, the overall effect of upgrading was again not significant (Model 2.1). However, some variation in the adult learning effect for different groups of participants could be seen (Model 2.2). First, there was a small positive effect for those in precarious jobs, although it was only marginally significant. Second, upgraders who were unemployed had a higher likelihood of entering non-precarious employment than unemployed persons who had not upgraded. The additional analysis of effects within individuals who changed employment statuses during the observation period revealed a significant and rather large (23 percentage points) positive effect for adult learning, indicating that upward educational mobility can help individuals access full-time and decently paid positions (Model 2.3). In sum, the results for Catalonia indicate that adult learning was beneficial for participants in more marginal labour market positions. In contrast, those in non-precarious jobs did not benefit from adult learning and results even suggest some tendency for a negative impact of an upgrade on the chances to stay in non-precarious jobs (the coefficients were negative, although not significant). Moving on to the UK and considering non-precarious employment in terms of temporal and social aspects (Table 4), a positive significant effect of upgrading and no significant effect of side-stepping was found (Model 3.1). The interactions between upgrading and employment status indicated that an educational upgrade may have had a small positive effect for those already in non-precarious jobs (Model 3.2). A larger positive effect of this type of adult learning was found for individuals in more precarious labour market positions. An upgrade appeared particularly beneficial for individuals outside the labour force. The unemployed also benefited from a side-step. These results tended to be confirmed with the fixed effects model (Model 3.3): both upgrading and side-stepping increased the chances of entering into non-precarious employment, with the estimated effect being approximately 5 percentage points. Regarding the second definition of non-precarious employment, obtaining adult learning generally indicated the same trend: upgrading tended to increase the chances of moving to non-precarious employment positions, while side-stepping tended not to (Model 4.1). Interactions with current employment status showed that an upgrade tended to be beneficial for all groups, with the largest benefit for those outside the labour market (Model 4.2). Side-stepping also seemed to be beneficial, except for those employed in precarious jobs. The fixed effects results also suggested that among those experiencing unstable employment paths, both upgrading and side-stepping increased the chances of transitioning into non-precarious jobs (Model 4.3), with the estimated effects being in the region of 7 percentage points.
7337 7337 2297 2297 χ2 = 1125.83, p = 0.000
1636 345
Source: Own calculation based on PaD (2002–9). Notes: *** p
