Comparative Economic Analysis

1



,3 The statistics used for our report and data collection were from World Bank, so for the sake of consistency we used their definition as well.
The labor force includes all people eligible and able to work, so not children, elderly, ill, etc.

The statistics used for our report and data collection were from World Bank, so for the sake of consistency we used their definition as well.
The Norwegian economy is often referred to as a 'welfare capitalism'
Supply and demand, scarcity, etc.
The direct sentence is- "Allowing for the possible exception of rural sub-Saharan Africa, it is the world's largest repository of the Old Traditional Economy." However, included fully made for a run-on sentence.
The most dominant religion in India with about 80% of the population
One's cast is determined by birth, and each caste has a given economic function and social status
Hinduism's belief that cows are sacred. Although no state explicitly bans beef consumption, most Indians abstain from eating beef and is widely practiced across India.
Accredited Social Health Activist
Housing, factories, machinery, and equipment
The total amount of goods and services demanded in the economy at a given price level at a certain point in time. Aggregate demand (AD) = C + I + G + (X – M)
The total supply of goods and services produced in the economy at a given price level at a certain point in time.
Foreign Direct Investment
Frictional unemployment meaning unemployment caused by the time people take to move between jobs
Structural unemployment meaning unemployment caused by a mismatch of skills in the labor market
Voluntary unemployment meaning unemployment caused by people choosing to remain unemployed
Cyclical unemployment meaning unemployment caused by firms employing less people in recessions or times when an economy is not meeting capacity
Seasonal unemployment meaning unemployment caused my regular changes in seasons, hence the name (e.g. pumpkin harvesters)
Underemployment is when the job a worker has it not meeting their skill level
Real wage unemployment meaning unemployment caused by an increase in wages (minimum wage) and shifting a firms allocation of resources in supply and demand in labor
Playing hooky is a slang term for creating a sickness or excuse to avoid going to work or attend to duties.
Demand-pull inflation occurs when the demand for a good or service increases beyond the point it depletes supply and firms realize they have the luxury of increasing prices
Cost-push inflation occurs when there is a shortage of supply combined with enough demand to allow firms to increase prices
Monetary expansion or the (over) expansion of the money supply (money supply meaning cash, credit, loans, and mortgages). When this occurs there will be too much money chasing too few goods which can lead to an increase in prices
This formula was taken from statistical consultants website.




Comparative Economic Analysis: India, Russia, Norway
Alexander Fortier and Alec Winter








Introduction
For our comparative analysis of macroeconomic performance we have chosen to investigate gross domestic product growth, unemployment, and inflation. We believe these performance measures are worthy in judging current economic status and progress (or lack-there-of) over the past decade.
Macroeconomic Performance Measures
Economic or gross domestic product growth is measured as the percent change in total goods and services produced within a country's borders from one year to the next. Gross domestic product or 'GDP', is defined as the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products (World Bank). This is the broadest and most popular of the three measures (of economic growth) and captures how much the country is progressing within its own borders, in terms of final goods and services. The tangent aspect of this measure allows a clear visual and proverbial bird's-eye view of production and can be used to see at what rate production is either growing or shrinking.
Unemployment is defined as the share of the labor force that is without work but is available for and seeking employment (World Bank) . The importance of this measure is the reported percentage of the labor force who are willing and capable of contributing to the economy's output but are not able to do so, and therefore not reaching theoretical output potential. The capable and willing could contribute but are not able to do so because they are not willing to accept a job or are not able to find a job. The distinction between 'not willing' and not able to find a job is an important measure as well. For example, an investment banker who is out of work and looking for work but is offered a job at McDonalds may not be willing to accept this offer due to qualifications. However I digress, unemployment can be used comparatively to realize how effectively an economic system utilizes or motivates its population to manufacture value via creation or destruction of jobs.
Finally inflation rates, which is the rate at which the general level of prices for a basket of goods and services is rising, and subsequently purchasing power is falling. To grasp this idea economists often refer to the consumer price index or 'CPI' which reflects changes in the cost to the average consumer of acquiring a basket of goods and services that may be fixed or changed at specified intervals (World Bank). In macroeconomic terms, large increases in money quantity, especially if clearly exceeding nominal GDP growth, risk to accelerate the current inflation rate (Piana 2001). Also, inflation plays an important role for governments in setting economic policy and interest rates to combat inflation. For example, the Bank of England uses inflation to set interest rates, so if the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee thinks CPI inflation will be above 2% in the next two years or so, it may increase interest rates to try to subdue it (Davies 2012). So interest rates increasing via Monetary Policy based off of inflation can extremely change the financial environment in which both individuals and businesses can operate. Inflation also has direct impact on the individual's earnings. If prices are inflated and products and services become more expensive, then the amount you earn is in essence worth less. In other words the money you make can buy you less after an inflation increases than it could before the increase and eats away at a standard of living. Inflation is important to consider from an overview of an economy, down to an individual's earnings perspective.
Economic Systems
For our economic systems we chose to analyze a market, tradition-oriented, and transition economies. We believe these economic systems are appropriate for conclusion because they represent three major classifications of economic systems. Each system has differences in approaching the components of an economy. Their differences are classified in regard to property and ownership, organization of decision making, allocation mechanisms, and incentive structures.
What classifies a market economy is private ownership, decentralized organization of decision making, a marketplace as the allocation mechanism, and performance based pay as their incentive structure. Norway contains these characteristics as evidenced by our research. Norway follows the European model of the market economy which allows for more government intervention compared to the Anglo-Saxon model. They display a social-market economy similar to that of Sweden in a "welfare state" and also share borders in Scandinavia. Norway allows private property (Anderssen 1998), competitive monetary incentives in the private sector (Jay 2001), allocation mechanism as a combination of free market activity and government intervention (Index of Economic Freedom 2014), as well as consumers' sovereignty in most sectors as demonstrated by the market-driven financial sector with limitations in its largely petroleum-based economy (Index of Economic Freedom 2014).
A tradition-oriented economy system has traditions, customs, religions, and beliefs that shape the way a goods, services, and markets are created. What classifies a tradition-oriented economic system and intertwining of tradition oriented practices with components that differ between what beliefs are held sacred. However the components we have found are typically common are nationalized property-ownership, centralized organization of decision making, allocation mechanism that is not completely profit but rather values with acknowledgement of major market practices, and as for the incentive structure it could be monetary, but earnings aren't emphasized on the individual but rather the ideals that the tradition or culture values. We chose India as our tradition-oriented economy. India possesses what is arguably the most complex mixed economic system in the world and the world's largest repository of the Old Traditional Economy (Rosser and Rosser 2004). There are a multitude of religions, languages, cultural beliefs that impact how India performs economically. Stemming from religion, India's most populous religion Hinduism has contributed their most important socioeconomic legacy, the caste system. Although legally abolished it still impacts their economy today and persists in practice in most rural areas (Rosser and Rosser 2004). The caste system and other factors have intertwined their way into the way the Indian economy functions. India has a large state-owned sector and extensive regulations and planning (Rosser and Rosser 2004). Financial remuneration has been found to be one of the key motivational factors impacting the performance of community health workers and the Government of India has introduced a performance-based payment method to support ASHAs in achieving defined health objectives (NHS resource Center, NewDelhi Training Division, Ministry of Health and Family welfare, New Delhi. Update on ASHA Program 2010). As for an allocation mechanism, India has shifted toward encouraging the growth of the private sector and reducing regulations it faces (Rosser and Rosser 2004), there has been massive deregulation in the industrial and manufacturing sector in order to bring in competition and increase efficiency (Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India ITP division).
A transition economy is one that is 'transitioning' from one economic system to another, hence the name. For example if a country that is characterized by socialism with nationalized or collectively owned property, centralized organization of decision making, planned allocation of goods and services, and non-performance based incentive structures (e.g. the Soviet Union) changes its economy to a market based economic system they are "transitioning" (e.g. Russian Federation). Conveniently, we chose the Russian Federation as our transition economy. The Russian Federation introduced shock therapy economics in the transition of one economic system to the other, meaning their transition from socialism to market based was not a gradual transition but a relatively immediate one. During the 1992-1994 period price liberalization, mass privatization, cutting subsidies, foreign trade liberalization and the introduction of full convertibility of the ruble (Rosser and Rosser 2004). By the end of 1995 Russia had completed the privatization of over 120,000 enterprises that accounted for 80 percent of employment in that year (Rosser and Rosser 2004). Russia now contains the characteristics of a market economy as evidenced by our research. Russia has privatized previously government held property, new firms have been created, and more than two-thirds of formerly SOE's are now privatized (McConnell, Brue, Barbiero, 2002). Government no longer has control of pricing of goods and services and is now determined by the market (McConnell, Brue, Barbiero 2002). Managers look after their own interests, but if incentives are not structured to make their interests congruent with economic progress reform growth will stall (Braguinsky, Yavlinsky 2000). Moving from a planned to a market society means making a political not just economic shift, in which power is transferred from government officials to a new class of capitalist entrepreneurs. This transformation took several centuries in past societies but today's reformers [in Russia] wanted it to take a century or two (Heilbroner and Milberg 2008).
We believe these countries display the common characteristics of their respective economic system and make for a proper comparative analysis.
Comparative Analysis over time
We start our comparative analysis with gross domestic product growth. There are two main factors that generally cause GDP growth (or decay); a change in aggregate demand and a change in aggregate supply. Following the aggregate demand formula (AD=C + I + G + (X – M) there are multiple factors that are conducive of growth in GDP via aggregate demand (e.g. expansionary fiscal policy or investments in infrastructure (G), lower interest rates or improved technology (I), higher wages or other methods to increase consumer's disposable income (C), exogenous factors such as increased growth in other countries that have demand triggering higher demand for goods (X) or vice-versa (M)). There are also several aspects that lead to an increase in aggregate supply (e.g. increase in working population via immigration or higher birth rate, and increase in productivity via better education/training or improved technology). For our analysis we thought GDP growth rate was the best measure to use comparatively. Due to the major differences in population (Figure 5), it can distort the view of income distribution and GDP per capita (Figure 6).
The market economic system (Norway) has seen the slowest growth rate and also the least volatile (See Figure 1). This has been due to decreasing production of petroleum in a highly petroleum based economy (See Figure 7) and falls into the GDP growth factor of aggregate supply as well as exports decreasing (See Figure 12), which has adverse effects on aggregate demand. It is also important to note that large oil companies that may explore for oil in the North and Norwegian Sea have cut back on capital expenditures which decrease their exploration and potential oil reserves that may have normally been produced (Tverberg 2014) (See Figure 8). (Apologies for mentioning petroleum again, but Norway is a highly petroleum based economy and exports account for a major part of their GDP). The world demand (especially that of the U.S.) for oil dropped significantly after 2008 (See Figure 9). However Norway has diversified exports, salmon and metals which are also a significant part of their production and exports. During the crisis both of these products had sharp price increases in 2009 and 2010 which counteracted its losses in petroleum (Klinger Spitznagel Alatalo Berglind Gustavsson Kure Nio Salmins Skuja Sorbo 2012).
The tradition-oriented economic system (India) has seen the highest growth rate on average over the past ten years (See Figure 1). The reason for their growth has multiple factors, most notably a culture of entrepreneurship and innovation as well as pioneering the global IT services industry (Lewis 2012). India also has a thriving agriculture sector with a major exports increasing year over year since 2000 (See Figure 11). India's growth rate in 2012 was substantially slowed due to a contraction in investment by the private sector and the financial effects of the crisis in Europe, which has given problems to policy makers on how to respond (Bajaj 2012). This factor falls in the investment category of the aggregate demand function, and this tradition-oriented economy faces the challenge of infrastructure issues plaguing a large portion of the country.
The transition economic system (Russia) has seen growth rates higher than that of Norway but below that of India (with an exception of 2008) and has also seen the most volatility (See Figure 1: High of 8.5% and Low of -7.8%). Although it is below India's, Russia's growth rate is still achieved major success and deservedly earned its 'R' in the 'BRIC' emerging markets category. The causes of this success stem from multiple variables (e.g. strong education, resilient financial system, and a high degree of natural resources). When switching to a market economy education became extremely important for survival in a formerly socialist state (with non-competitive based performance incentives). Almost 43% of Russian adults are college graduates and almost 90% of high school students graduate (Logue 2011). Russia has also concentrated on making their own system strong in the absence of outside investors (after the 1998 government default of $40 billion of debt issued bonds). With banks taking a hard line on risk, Russia made it through the 2008 global financial crisis with [close to] no problems (Logue 2011). With more than two decades into the transition, it is evidenced there are still major market conditions that are somewhat new and hard to control in a market economy as seen in 2009 (-7.8% GDP growth rate). Russia's strong short-term macroeconomic fundamentals make it better prepared than many emerging economies to deal with the crisis, but its underlying structural weaknesses and high dependence on the price of a single commodity (petroleum) make its impact [on GDP growth rates] more pronounced (World Bank of Russia 2008) (See figure 13). The observed drop in oil prices in 2008 to 2009 (See Figure 13) weighed heavily on the Russian economy, which is very dependent on oil and gas exports (Lesova 2010).
In a more general sense, observed in all countries were a dip in GDP growth in 2008 and 2009. We weren't able to find an article that explicitly said the growth rates of these countries and economic systems were directly affected by the United States 08' subprime mortgage crisis. However it is obvious that the United States economy is globally connected, especially in FDI and the flow of goods.
Our second performance measure is unemployment. The main types of unemployment are frictional, structural, voluntary, cyclical, seasonal, underemployment, and real wage unemployment. Their definition (as listed below in the footnotes) can reveal in most cases the cause and occurrence of the unemployment.
The market economic system (Norway) has had on average the lowest unemployment rate average (See Figure 2) and stayed fairly consistent besides a notable decrease in unemployment from 2006 to 2007. The market economic system of Norway has boasted some of the lowest unemployment rates across Europe although some statistics suggest they are deceivingly low. Due to the economic systems "welfare state" researchers have found out that many people who have lost their jobs file for disability due to health problems. Research notes that three out of every ten new cases of disability result from job losses (Berglund 2010). When people claim disability to due health problems they are dropped from the labor force and effectively collecting disability payments instead of unemployment pay and not turning up in the unemployment rolls. Norway also has the highest rate of workers on disability in Europe (Berglund 2010). This market economic system essentially allowed for a new type of unemployment, playing "hooky" oh, oops I mean "disability unemployment" because it does not fall in to any of the categories of the main types of unemployment.
The tradition-oriented economic system (India) also had relatively low unemployment rates compared to the market system (Norway). Their unemployment rate is rather stagnant over the past decade and is void of big changes. However having said that, nearly 30 million of India's labor force is unemployed, 26 million are underemployed and 40 million want additional work and 35 million are looking for alternative of livelihood. The size of India's work force is between 430 and 471 million but their official upper limit of unemployment and underemployment comes out to about 70 million (so it is assumed that not all cases are being reported). That is more than the population of countries such as France, UK, and Canada (Thakur 2012). This tradition-oriented economic system contains a massive labor force and has experience immense growth so there will be major 'growing pains' with allocation of jobs into maturing business in India.
The transition economy (Russia) by far had the highest unemployment rates. The structural switch in economic systems has been a difficult one for most of the uneducated and aging population. A struggle in a changed environment has led to higher crime rates, organized crime, and bribery (Denisova Eller Zhuranvskaya 2007). Not only these factors but corruption within the government has exposed many business owners to risk of "economic crimes" some of which are very controversial (Kramer 2013). This environment is coupled with the exogenous economic forces of the global financial crisis strongly affected the economic situation in Russia (Russia CEIC Database 2011). The country's major revenue flows (petroleum) slowed down, and the economy as a whole started to malfunction. The unemployment rate soared in 2009 almost doubled during nine consecutive months, ending in a peak of 8.3% in 2009 (Russia CEIC Database 2011). The unemployment increase classifies as cyclical employment because it happened during a recession period. (Opinionated article) Russia's institutional foundation and expensive labor do not fit the existing commodity-based economic model, which requires the cheapest possible immigrant workers. There has been a large pro-immigration campaign, to support this cheap labor (again opinionated). People are reluctant to take low-paying jobs, so officially, there are job openings in the system, although they aren't meeting people's needs (Krupnov 2011). If analysis of Krupnov's is correct this would classify as underemployment or structural unemployment in the transitional economic system.
Our third performance measure is inflation. The main causes of inflation are demand-pull inflation, cost-push inflation, and monetary expansion.
The market economy (Norway) has experienced the least amount of inflation over the past decade. One of the only factors that they were exposed to was the financial crisis. When the financial crisis of 2008 hit, Norway's government responded immediately with reduced interest rates for fiscal and monetary policy (Klinger Spitznagel Alatalo Berglind Gustavsson Kure Nio Salmins Skuja and Sorbo 2012). Reduced interest rates allow people and businesses to borrow money at a cheaper rate. These interest rates encourage businesses and people for investment in businesses, mortgages, etc. Overall the market economy has not had to deal with any substantial amounts of inflation or large increases in inflation.
On average the tradition-oriented economy experienced the second most amount of inflation and has also been the worst in combatting inflation post financial crisis of 2008. In various reports and policy documents, the Reserve Bank of India actually attributed to the stubborn inflation increase in the country. There were multiple factors such as food inflation resulting from long-term change in dietary patterns, buoyant demand conditions enabling producers to pass on the increase in input cost to the final price (demand-pull), elevated international commodity prices on account of ultra-accommodative monetary policy in major advanced economies that depreciated exchange rates (depreciating ruble See figure 14), and also fiscal stimulus largely of the consumption expenditure in response to the 2008 financial crisis stoking inflation (Reserve Bank of India 2012).
The transition economy has dealt with the highest inflation over the past decade. Russian inflation has steadily brought down to an annual 10% in 2006 but increased rapidly in 2008 (See Figure 3). This constrained the government from reviving the declining economy (Statesman 2012). However it has combatted inflation very well since the financial crisis of 2008 statistically. As suggested by the OECD observer, Russia's policy stimulus subdued inflation and the large output gap. Their fiscal policy was managed to avoid dislocative demand effects from a surge of expenditures in late 2009 followed by a tightening [fiscal policy] in 2010 (OECD observer 2010).
Summary and Conclusions
Is there an economic system that out-performed the others over time? Is one economic system better at locating workers or combatting inflation? We intended to address these questions using the data collected as well as general research of articles and information.
GDP growth rates were significantly different between each economic system in both growth and volatility. The market system had low growth rates but less volatile and resilient against exogenous economic forces. The tradition oriented system experienced the highest GDP growth rate. However they are substantially behind in output per person as evidenced by GDP per capita (See Figure 6, almost non-existent). The transition economy had proficient growth as well but has a more fragile economic system with massive dependency on a single commodity.
Regarding the links between unemployment and economic system we also find a number of interesting results. The market economy had the lowest unemployment rates but they may be artificially low due to systematic allowances of disability in a "welfare state". The tradition-oriented economy had low rates as well but due to population size it is assumed that not all cases of unemployment are actually being reported. The transition economy had higher unemployment rates than any other economic system. The structural atmosphere with crime, corruption and bribery has taken a huge impact on the working environment in Russia. Not to mention the positions available may not be suitable to someone looking for work in their petroleum based economy causing structural issues in unemployment.
Inflation in economic systems also seized interesting results in overall rate but also the ability to deal with inflation. The market economy had stagnant inflation with little-to-no change over time. The tradition oriented economy had lower inflation at the beginning time frame of our analysis but had very little leverage in fighting it, and resulted in the highest inflation rate in the most current statistic. The transition economic system had (what we felt was skewed data due to the 1998 government bond default) the highest inflation rate on average and the highest inflation rate to begin with. However their ability to combat inflation was the greatest due to their stimulus policy.










Figure 1: Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate, by country












Sources: Data from World Bank. World Bank has GDP calculated by the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any of its subsidies not included in the value of products.
Growth rate calculated in excel as (current years GDP- previous years GDP)/previous years GDP giving a year over year (YOY) percent change.

Figure 2: Unemployment stated as percentage of population that is without work but available for and seeking employment, by country

Source: Data from World Bank. The World Bank references International Labour Organization (ILO). Unemployment refers to the share of the labor force that is without work but available for and seeking employment.


Figure 3: Inflation as measured by the CPI, by country
Source: Data from World Bank. Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the annual percentage change in the cost to the average consumer of acquiring a basket of goods and services that may be fixed or changed at specified intervals, such as yearly. The Laspeyres formula is generally used. Laspeyres formula is stated as where = price of item i at base period, = price of item i at time t, = quantity consumed of item i at base.

Figure 4 continued: Inflation as measured by the CPI, by country, sensitivity analysis
Country
Year
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Norway
Consumer Prices (annual%)
2.5%
0.5%
1.5%
2.3%
0.7%
3.8%
2.2%
2.4%
1.3%
0.7%
2.1%
 
Change in %
0.0%
-2.0%
1.0%
0.8%
-1.6%
3.1%
-1.6%
0.2%
-1.1%
-0.6%
1.4%
India
Consumer Prices (annual%)
3.8%
3.8%
4.2%
6.1%
6.4%
8.4%
10.9%
12.0%
8.9%
9.3%
10.9%
 
Change in %
0.0%
0.0%
0.4%
1.9%
0.3%
2.0%
2.5%
1.1%
-3.1%
0.4%
1.6%
Russian Federation
Consumer Prices (annual%)
13.7%
10.9%
12.7%
9.7%
9.0%
14.1%
11.7%
6.9%
8.4%
5.1%
6.8%
 
Change in %
0.0%
-2.8%
1.8%
-3.0%
-0.7%
5.1%
-2.4%
-4.8%
1.5%
-3.3%
1.7%




Source: Data via World Bank











Figure 4 continued: Inflation as measured by the CPI, by country













Source: Data via World Bank





Figure 5: Population, by country

Source: Data via World Bank




Figure 6: GDP per capita, by country

Source: Data via World Bank



Figure 7: Norway total oil production















Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Figure 8: World Crude Oil Production











Source: Energy Information Administration


Figure 9: Major importers of petroleum, China and US












Source: Energy Information Administration





Figure 10: US Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products in Thousands of Barrels

Source: Data via Energy Information Administration

Figure 11: Agricultural exports of India (China listed as well)










Source: Buhwanchand 2013







Figure 12: Exports as a percentage of GDP (top), Index of Change in % year over year (bottom), by country


Source: Data via World Bank








Figure 13: Europe Brent Spot Price (Dollars per Barrel)















Source: Data via Thomas Reuters


Figure 14: Exchange rates, percent change, by country



Source: Data via Oando, calculated average for the year after compiling everyday averages from 2003 to 2013




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Historic Unemployment Rates