A Policy-oriented Approach to Energy Security

A Policy-oriented Approach to Energy Security Jeff Kucharski Graduate School of Energy Science Kyoto University, Japan 5th International Conference on Sustainable Future for Human Security, SustaiN 2014 Nov. 19, 2014, Bali, Indonesia

Purpose •  Develop a policy-oriented approach to energy security assessment •  “Policy-oriented”: includes a broad range of factors impacting on energy security; both internal and external to the energy system •  Contribute toward development of a systematic and comprehensive framework for energy security assessment (ongoing research)

Background •  Studies of energy security have been criticized for: •  Rarely use a systematic approach and are arbitrary •  Too narrowly focused and fail to account for a broad range of uncertainties •  Fail to explain vulnerability and risk adequately •  Focus on subsystems, not the system as a whole

•  As a result, the literature lacks frameworks that take into account a broad range of factors impacting modern energy systems

Defining the energy system Economic

Societal

Geopolitical

Environmental

Technological

Geological

Shocks, stresses and threats

Environment

Environment

Infrastructure systems

Energy System

Financial system

Water

ICT Transportation

Governance system

Global energy markets

Public & civil society

Political, diplomatic & trade mechanisms

Conceptualizing how the energy system functions •  A complex adaptive systems approach (CAS) •  Advantages of a CAS approach are: •  •  •  • 

Explains complex, non-linear behavior Accounts for relationships among other related systems Explains how systems respond to change: adaptability More realistic conceptualization of how systems actually work (e.g.: co-evolution, non-linear)

•  The whole of the energy system has not been systematically defined as a CAS

Complex adaptive system System-wide patterns emerge

Macro level

Patterns affect agent behavior

Emergence

Micro level

Changing external environment

Agents interact

Changing external environment

Risk and vulnerability •  Energy Security: “the reliable, stable and sustainable supply of energy at affordable prices and social costs” (WEF, 2012) •  Energy security depends on whether vulnerabilities are exploited in the energy system: •  Interdependencies with other complex systems •  Vulnerabilities can be exploited by shocks, stresses and threats •  “Risk” applies in situations where the outcome of an event and its probability are well understood (e.g.: failure rate of a power transformer in an electricity grid) •  Risk can therefore be reliably measured and managed using traditional risk management approaches.

Examples of Uncertainties •  “Uncertainty”– An earthquake, where models to estimate damage are well understood, but the timing of the earthquake itself cannot be predicted. •  “Ambiguity” – Public opinion on nuclear power between Japan and the U.K. is varied and nuanced, but we can the estimate probability distributions to account for the differences between the two. •  “Ignorance”– Anthropogenic climate change was not recognized as a threat until its effects began to be felt.

Types and sources of risks and uncertainties •  Risks and uncertainties can be categorized by: •  Source- whether internal or external to the energy system •  Temporality- in terms of: •  short-term shocks and, •  long-term stresses

How to respond to external threats? Focus on diversification, impact reduction and responsiveness in the system: •  Diversification: primary energy sources (e.g.: coal, oil, electricity, natural gas), geographic region, transit routes in order to avoid choke points and transportation modes (e.g. pipeline, rail, ship, grid interconnects). •  Impact reduction: e.g.: reduce GHG emissions, switch to renewables, improve energy efficiency •  Responsiveness: Given the uncertainty inherent in many long-term threats, we propose focusing on responsiveness to the effects of disturbance, rather than the causes.

Conclusions •  When risks are within our ability to control, we can regulate them or manage them with risk methods. When they are out of our control, we need to strengthen the ability of the system itself to respond. •  When faced with short-term shocks, we need to strengthen system resilience •  When faced with long-term threats, we need to enhance adaptability in the system •  This paper is a starting point for conceptualizing the energy system and identifying and classifying vulnerabilities, risks and threats. •  Future research will identify specific response strategies for adaptability and develop a framework that includes indicators for energy security assessment

Contribution to the literature •  Clearly defining a broader, policy oriented approach to energy security by: •  Conceptualizing the energy system as a CAS •  Defining a broader range of factors affecting energy systems •  Employing a “system of systems” approach

•  Clearly differentiating resilience and adaptability. •  Developing a framework for applying various types and categories of risk and uncertainty to energy security.