3 Dilemas: Un diagnóstico para el futuro energético de México

! ! ! ! ! !

!

RESUMEN EJECUTIVO

"!#$%&'()*!+,!#$(-,.)/$01!2(3(!&%!45/531!&,&3-6/$01!#&!768$01*!9:;+7:+?@AB!

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

EL PROBLEMA POLÍTICO DE PEMEX I'#!>%2&.&%2'#!=2'7/%*.#!&%!/.!=.2.%#$.$./@!('+$2.2,'!.!/'!0)%!#%!(2%%@!#'+!%*,+%+$%*%+$%!='/K$,('#@!%+!%#=%(,./! ='2! %/! *./! *.+%L'! &%! /.! %+$,&.&! =.2.%#$.$./! ('*'! )+! 72.-'! &%/! "#$.&'! ='2! =.2$%! &%/! 8'7,%2+'! 1%&%2./:! b)%&,/%8,4#! &%! /.#! ('*=2.#! &%! /.! =.2.%#$.$./:! A'2!'$2'!/.&'@!1)%!%#$.!*,#*.!7'+.+-.!=%$2'/%2.@!?!/.#!%5$2.'2&,+.2,.#!8.+.+(,.#!=2'>%+,%+$%#!&%!/.#!%5='2$.(,'+%#! &%!(2)&'@!/.!0)%!1.(,/,$+?@AB! !

•

•

•

!

H()$G1! %(D13(%*! I.! (.+$,&.&! &%! =%2#'+.#! 0)%! T.+! $2.7.L.&'! %+! A%*%5@! ?! 0)%! .($)./*%+$%! /.7'2.+! .TK@! .&%*6#!&%!/'#!'+%2'#'#!%#0)%*.#!&%!=%+#,'+%#!('+!/'#!0)%!()%+$.+!#)#!2%$,2.&'#@!T.(%+!0)%!%/!=.#,>'! 9 /.7'2./!.#(,%+&.!.!N:9!7,//'+%#!&%!=%#'#!./!9N!&%!*.2-'!&%![ON9: !"#$.!(,12.!%0),>./%!./!H`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

! "/!=2%(,'!&%/!8.#!+.$)2./!%+!U'2$%.*42,(.!=)%&%!#%2!%/!*6#!7.2.$'!&%/!*)+&'@!=%2'!#,!345,('!+'!=)%&%!.=2'>%(T.2! %#.!('+&,(,,%+%!&%!(%+$2./%#!&%!(,(/'#! ('*7,+.&'#!0)%!)$,/,-.+!('*'!=2,+(,=./!,+#)*'!%/!8.#!+.$)2./:!"#!+%(%#.2,'!=2'()2.2!/.!('+#$2)((,.7/%#! *6#! 82.+&%! &%/! *)+&'@! /.! ()./! 1)%! &%/! G`WF:! Y,+! %*7.28'@! #,! #%! ('+#,&%2.! %/! =%2,'&'! [OOE_[ON[@! 345,('! +'! %#$6! %+$2%! /'#! =2,*%2'#! &,%-! =.K#%#! %+! ().+$'! .! (2%(,*,%+$'!&%!,+>%2#,