2016 US Presidential Race: Two Cuban Americans and a Reality Show Star Walk into a Bar

2016  US  Presidential  Race:  Two  Cuban  Americans  and  a  Reality  Show  Star   Walk  into  a  Bar     By  Evren  Çelik  Wiltse   Assistant  Professor,  South  Dakota  State  University     The  strange  and  convoluted  candidate  selection  system  in  the  US  keeps  puzzling  the   rest  of  the  world.  In  the  2016  presidential  race,  the  process  delivered  some  rather   unconventional  candidates.  Essentially,  we  are  observing  50  small  races  at  each   state,  before  the  parties  nominate  their  candidates  in  their  national  convention.       The  mini  races  at  the  state  level  (called  primaries  or  caucuses)  serve  to  allocate   delegates  in  the  national  convention  of  each  party.  Iowa,  New  Hampshire  and  South   Carolina  are  states  that  start  the  race  relatively  early.  Presidential  candidates  who   can  have  strong  showing  in  these  early  states  tend  to  carry  this  wind  and  begin   dominating  the  arena  in  the  later  states.     Normally,  these  early  elections  at  each  state  are  sufficiently  open  to  the  general   public.  One  can  register  and  vote  the  same  day  in  caucuses  and  primaries.  However,   despite  this  “open  door”  policy,  political  parties  have  historically  been  able  to  steer   the  voter  choices.  They  can  do  so  by  using  the  party  networks  and  incumbents   (governors,  senators,  representatives)  to  mobilize  voter  support.  Consequently,   despite  these  “open  primaries”,  parties  still  had  decisive  role  in  who  the  nominees   would  be.       This  year  however,  things  are  somewhat  different.  The  Republican  electorate  seems   rather  upset  and  angry  with  the  establishment.  Fearful  of  a  populist  backlash,  the   Republican  elites  did  not  openly  throw  their  weight  behind  a  single  candidate.  While   Jeb  Bush  enjoyed  a  certain  degree  of  support,  it  was  not  sufficient  push  him  ahead.   After  spending  some  $130  million  in  his  election  campaign,  Jeb  Bush  pulled  out  of   the  race  after  South  Carolina.       Unlike  previous  years,  outside  candidates  are  making  significant  progress  this  year.   Normally,  outside  candidates  would  have  serious  disadvantages.  They  would   neither  have  the  financial  support  of  the  Republican  establishment,  nor  the  name   recognition.  However,  when  we  look  at  the  candidates  this  year,  outsiders  are  doing   remarkably  well  in  the  primaries  and  caucuses.  How  can  we  explain  this  anomaly?       Donald  Trump:  The  Reality  Star-­‐Turned-­‐Presidential  Frontrunner   Trump  has  a  rather  unique  status  compared  to  the  other  candidates.  Even  though  he   is  a  political  outsider,  he  does  not  suffer  from  the  usual  disadvantages  of  the   outsider  status.  Having  marketed  his  own  name  in  real  estate  and  later  in  reality   shows  for  decades,  he  enjoys  universal  name  recognition.  He  has  sufficient  funds  to   finance  his  own  election  campaign.  In  fact,  he  rejects  outside  money.  Moreover,  he   has  mastered  the  use  of  all  forms  of  media.  Even  though  he  is  criticized  by  the  elites  

for  his  inflammatory  and  racist  rhetoric,  his  simplistic  vocabulary  and  scandalous   policy  proposals,  state  after  state,  Trump  keeps  winning.       From  a  name-­‐recognition  perspective,  Jeb  Bush  also  had  significant  advantages.  But   Trump  was  able  to  run  Bush  to  the  ground,  largely  through  effective  use  of  rhetoric.   Almost  every  time  he  mentioned  Jeb  Bush’s  name,  Trump  used  adjectives  like   “weak”,  “soft”  and  “low-­‐energy”.  Despite  coming  from  a  massive  political  dynasty   and  having  solid  support  from  the  Republican  establishment,  Jeb  Bush  couldn’t   show  any  meaningful  success  in  the  first  few  primaries.  He  couldn’t  even  make  it  to   the  top  three.  After  spending  millions  in  campaigning,  yet  not  persuading  the   Republicans  away  from  Trump,  Jeb  Bush  eventually  decided  to  drop  out  of  the  race   in  South  Carolina.       Trump  introduced  a  whole  new  set  of  vocabulary  into  political  campaigning.   Opponent  bashing  reached  to  whole  new  levels  during  the  Trump  campaign.  Trump   called  Republican  contender  Ted  Cruz  a  “maniac”  who  doesn’t  have  the  “right   temperament  for  presidency”.  Referring  to  the  only  female  candidate  on  GOP  side,   Carly  Fiorina,  Trump  said  the  following:  “Look  at  that  face!  Would  anyone  vote  for   that?”       Trump  offends  not  only  people  but  also  nations.  He  was  particularly  harsh  against   Mexico.  On  several  occasions,  he  criticized  NAFTA  by  saying,  “they  get  our  jobs,  and   we  get  their  criminals  and  rapists”.  If  elected,  he  plans  to  deport  approximately  11   million  illegal  immigrants  and  build  a  massive  wall  along  the  Mexican  border,  which   will  be  paid  by  the  Mexican  government.  Muslims  do  not  get  any  gentle  treatment   either.  Trump  openly  said  that  he  would  consider  banning  Muslims  from  entering   the  US.       Despite  his  extreme  rhetoric,  he  seems  to  be  the  solid  front-­‐runner  for  the   Republican  Party.  But  who  are  the  Trump  supporters?  Many  think  that  the  poor,   lesser  educated  and  disenchanted  white  population  rushes  to  Trump.  In  fact,  in  a   recent  victory  speech,  Trump  said  he  loves  them  all,  particularly  “the  poorly   educated!”     A  public  opinion  survey  conducted  in  December  2015  under  the  auspices  of  the   University  of  Massachusetts  sheds  light  to  the  Trump  phenomenon.  This  empirical   study  shows  that  income,  race,  education  or  religion  do  not  play  significant  role  in   distinguishing  the  Trump  supporters  from  rest  of  Republicans.  That  is,  Trump   supporters  are  not  any  poorer  or  less  educated  than  Cruz  or  Rubio  supporters.  What   distinguishes  the  Trump  supporters  is  that,  they  are  more  prone  to   authoritarianism.  In  general,  authoritarian  personalities  prefer  strong,  charismatic   leaders  and  control.  As  such,  Trump’s  rhetoric  about  the  wall  against  Mexico,  control   over  borders,  “making  America  great  again”  strongly  resonate  with  this   authoritarian  voter  profile.      

Trump  has  some  important  handicaps  when  it  comes  to  appealing  the  core   conservative  base  of  the  Republicans.  Even  though  he  mentions  family  values  and   religion  in  his  campaign,  his  own  biography  is  hard  to  brush  aside.  Being  from  New   York,  he  is  known  to  be  more  liberal  on  women’s  rights  in  the  past.  Trump  has  also   married  three  times,  twice  with  foreign  national  super  models.  It  is  difficult  to   reconcile  his  past  with  his  conservative  and  anti-­‐immigrant  rhetoric  today.       Ted  Cruz:  The  Slipper  Slope  to  Theocracy   Ted  Cruz  could  be  described  at  the  candidate  that  is  diametrically  opposite  of   Trump.  Cruz  gained  the  national  spotlight  after  winning  the  first  caucus  in  Iowa.  He   has  strong  following  among  the  religious  Republicans,  particularly  the  Evangelicals.   His  father  is  a  rather  extreme  preacher  in  Texas.  When  explaining  how  he  decided  to   run  for  president,  Cruz  told  the  reporters  that  they  had  hours  long  prayer  session  at   his  father’s  church,  and  finally  when  they  were  all  on  their  knees,  waiting  for  a  signal   from  God,  “God  spoke  to  his  wife,  Heidi”,  and  apparently  said  “Go  for  it!”  In  short,   Cruz  believes  some  divine  signal  compelled  him  to  run  for  the  2016  presidential   race.       When  elected,  Ted  Cruz  wants  to  eliminate  the  separation  of  the  church  and  state  in   the  US.  He  is  trained  as  a  lawyer,  supposedly  knows  the  Constitution  and  has  argued   cases  in  front  of  the  US  Supreme  Court.  Yet,  it  is  difficult  to  understand  how  he  can   push  for  a  merger  of  state  and  religion,  when  the  US  Constitution  explicitly  bans   endorsement  of  of  any  religion  by  the  state  and  public  authorities.       Marco  Rubio:  The  Last  Exit  before  the  bridge   Finally,  Marco  Rubio  is  the  young  and  relatively  inexperienced  candidate  on  the   Republican  side.  Both  his  parents  fled  from  Cuba  and  settled  in  Miami.  Unlike  Cruz,   Rubio  had  a  less  privileged  upbringing.  Yet,  both  Cruz  and  Rubio  are  adamantly   against  Cuba  and  Castro.  They  want  to  reverse  all  the  positive  diplomatic  steps  that   were  initiated  by  President  Obama.       Both  the  Republican  establishment  and  large  Republican  donors  were  supporting   Jeb  Bush  at  the  beginning  of  the  race.  However,  after  Jeb  Bush  stepped  down,  party   establishment  is  gradually  moving  towards  Rubio.  So  far,  Republican  Senators  seem   to  be  turned  off  by  the  extremely  xenophobic  rhetoric  of  Trump  and  the  radical-­‐ religious  rhetoric  of  Cruz.  Consequently,  Rubio  seems  to  be  the  only  viable,  middle   of  the  ground  candidate.  Yet  his  young  age,  lack  of  charismatic  appeal,  protectionist   stance  in  foreign  affairs,  and  inconsistent  record  in  the  Senate  seem  to  be  significant   hurdles.       Given  this  strange  batch  of  candidates,  the  race  is  getting  increasingly  more   desperate.  One  of  the  recent  campaign  slogans  is:  “Anyone  but  Trump!”  Republicans   are  having  an  uphill  battle  to  find  a  sensible  candidate.          

Republican  Candidates  &  Their  Positions  on  Major  Policy  Issues:       Donald  Trump   Ted  Cruz   Marco  Rubio   Short   Born  in  New  York,   Cuban  father  American   Both  parents  from   biography:   German-­‐Scottish   mother,  born  in   Cuba,  grew  up  in  Miami   ancestors,  real  estate   Calgary  Canada,  grew   &  Las  Vegas,  University   developer  father,   up  in  Texas,  Harvard   of  Miami  Law  School   Wharton  School  of   Law  School  graduate,   graduate,  married,  4   Business  Graduate,   married,  2  kids.     kids.       married  3  times,  5  kids.   Religion&   Previously  expressed   Defended  to  preserve   Supports  traditional   moral  issues   liberal  opinions,  but   “under  God”  in  the   family  values,  churches,   currently  highlights  his   Pledge,  on  Texas  Ten   civil  society   Christian  background,   Commandments   family  values   monument  &  in  Texas   schools;  against   abortion,  against   same-­‐sex  marriage   Guns   “No  one  can  chip  away   Staunch  supporter  of   Believes  rights  to  bear   the  2nd  Amendment   2nd  amendment,   arms  is  a  fundamental   rights!”   “absolutely  no  gun   right,  voted  to  block   control!”   background  checks  to   buy  guns   Immigration   “No  border,  no  country!”   Build  a  wall,  triple   700  miles  of  Wall  on   Will  build  a  wall  to  stop   border  security,  use   south  border,  entry-­‐exit   illegal  immigration.   biometric  tracking  to   visa  tracking  system,  $4   Mexico  will  pay  for  the   end  illegal   billion  for  new  cameras   Wall.  Approximately  11   immigration;  5  year   &  censors  at  the  border   million  illegal   minimum  sentence  to   immigrants  will  be   those  who  enter   deported   illegally   Foreign  policy:     Stronger  military   “Rip  up  Iran  deal”;   End  Obama’s  Cuba   presence,  especially  in   strongly  side  with   “concessions”,  put  Cuba   East  and  South  China   Israel,  reject  refugees   back  to  state  sponsors   Seas   from  “terrorist-­‐ridden”   of  terrorism  list,  no   regions,  recognize   refugees  to  be  accepted   governors  authority  to   from  Syria   refuse  their   resettlement   Economy,   Simplify  tax  code,  no   10%  flat  tax,  “repeal   Stop  China  from   Taxes   taxes  from  anyone   every  word  of   undermining  US   making  $25,000  a  year;   Obamacare”   economy,  taxes  from   cut  corporate  tax  rate  to   small  business  cut  to   15%     25%,  repeal  Obamacare