Western Sahara Case : a fight for resources

THE WESTERN SAHARA CASE

Framing the issue

Ingredients of this issue, that dates back at the colonial time, are variegated and mélanges. A colonial power that leave its colony, a non-self-governing territory, two/three claimant states, a partially recognized government in exile and the most important international organization of the world, the UN present with an own mission on the field.
All these components regards an international dispute that creeps itself since 1976 the year of the withdrawal of Spanish army from Western Sahara. Western Sahara is in fact the focal point of this issue.
As one of the lowest populated area in the world, this region is important in fact of mineral resources. It owns up to 75% of the world estimated resource of phosphate, a mineral used for many human fundamental activities as agriculture that is not yet well exploited in the region.
A traditional colonialist issue in the 70ies became a question of regional power in the 80ies before passing under the cap of the MINURSO United Nation operation that transformed it in an ethnical issue. An ethnical problem that in the last year developed into an economic and energy issue.
Going from grade this paper will analyze the political and historical background of the region, the last diplomatic initiatives where it will be discussed the UN mission MINURSO and it will be concluded by a series of recommendations for the negotiators.
Historical, political general background

Since the Berlin Conference of 1884, the northwestern part of Africa has been an influence zone of the Kingdom of Spain.
Since 1973 the most extremists parts of the local Sahrawi population organized in the Polisario Front (Frente Popular de Liberación de Saguía el Hamra y Río de Oro) a movement for independence started to practice guerrilla actions to force the Spanish troops to leave.
The Moroccan government too start to push to annexing the entire territory, first demanding to the International Court of Justice for an advisor over the Western Sahara region.

The ICJ replied that the Western Sahara has historical link with Morocco and Mauritania, but the Sahrawi population has the right to self-determination.
Moroccan government so organized in November 1975 the Green March where over 300.000 Moroccans civilian, supported by 20.000 troops, advanced several kilometers inside the Western Sahara's territory and started to occupied it.
Meanwhile in Angola and Mozambique in 1974-1975 Portugal's former colonies achieved independence after guerrilla wars and brought the dictatorial regime of Salazar in Portugal to the end.
All this factors led the Spanish government to start the negotiation with the last colonial territory in Africa that was not yet independent, the Western Sahara. The so-called Madrid Accords defined the end of the Spanish presence and the division of the territory between Mauritania and Morocco. Sahrawi people were not part of the deal and did not have the possibility to let their voices heard.
Algeria that has one small part of his border in common with Western Sahara started to support the Polisario Front and tried to struggle against the Royal Morocco Army in the battle of Amgala in 1976. Since then Morocco-Algerian relations frozen and then in 1994 even the borders between the two states are closed.
In 1979, Mauritania withdrew from the region and Moroccan troops invaded even the south part of Western Sahara. Moroccan government started then in the 80ies to build a series of wall to contain the Sahrawi guerrillas actions.





Last diplomatic initiatives to solve the issue
The hostilities ceased thanks to the intervention of UN that in 1991 imposed a cease-fired and established a Mission for the organization of a referendum as expression of self-determination of the people of Western Sahara.
Since this Settlement plan, the parts started to meet frequently but no referendum has been held yet nor the follow agreements reached a solution towards the independence.
The Houston Agreement of 1997 for example expected to bring to a referendum for the 1998 but nothing happened. The same can be said for the two plan proposed by James Baker, the Personal Envoy of the UN Secretary-General for Western Sahara.
All these initiatives for the referendum fell for the problem of whom had to vote, Polisario Front in fact wanted to identify the voters from the census of 1974 of the Spanish occupants that were around 85.000.
Since 1976, a huge mass of Moroccan people settled in Western Sahara and the population is now around 400.000. Obviously Moroccan government refuses to conduct a referendum over this point and will not hold any referendum without an agreement that will permit to vote even Moroccan citizens.
Since the last Baker Plan of 2003, the Morocco government seems to have the only interest of delaying the negotiations. In fact, the line of the negotiators of Morocco is now to concede just autonomy at the region under the recently created Royal Advisory Council for Saharan Affairs (CORCAS).
The delegation of Moroccan government and the representatives of the Polisario Front started to meet again in 2007 after the call of the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1754. The so-called Manhasset negotiations are hold in the United States and are still negotiating but without any practice result.


Recommendations for negotiators and/or policy makers

As noticed in the introduction the problem of Western Sahara is mixing an ethnical (from the Sahrawi point of view) issue with an energy resource issue (Moroccan will) in a water of post-colonialist issue (Western Sahara is the last non-self-governing territory in Africa).
The fast reducing reserves of phosphor in the world could led this issue in the next year under the spotlight of political problems of the entire international community. Since the price of the phosphor will remain stable, a fast solution should be provided.
The Moroccan government in fact, being a monarchy, would never leave this area without enough incentives to do it. The figure of king then is almost sacred; the king is seen as "the one that is never wrong".
Morocco already left African Union in 1984 when the international organization supported the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic but is still a member of Arab League where the SADR has not been recognized.
The United Nation should speed the negotiation understanding the real motivation that are under the occupation of Morocco and the claims of Sahrawian people.
As already did by the international community Mauritania and Algeria should not be involved in negotiations. The first one already withdrew in 1979, thus Algeria is seen from Morocco as a Trojan horse to have an access on the Oceanic cost of Africa.

A possible solution for the resource problem would be the instauration of a supranational authority that manages the production of phosphate, the Morocco could be compensate with a high percentage of income of the production or with a 10 years usufruct of the mine.
The use of the mine of Morocco in fact is not environmental sustainable and can cause severe damages to the population and even to the environment of the area. As stated by the ambassador of the United States in Rabat, mines are not exploited and a collapse of them could create political instability in the region.
The referendum question should be bypassed from a political solution that may resolve the dispute more than a technical solution as the referendum one. In fact talking about referendum could extreme the two parties more on a technical issue of whom can vote.
The referendum solution did not work in the last 20 years and the more the years go, the more the population is evolving. UN should not forget that the SADR is now being hosting by Algeria in a refugee's camp on Algerian territory and this is causing problems on the nationalities of the children.
The incentives that can be provided to Morocco are the reintegration on the African Union and a percentage on the incomes of the phosphate mines.
The main solution I propose is to give to the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic the land it owns except from the one occupied by mines that would be supervised by an international authority with a part of incomes given to Moroccan government.
As stated from the Under-Secretary-General for Legal Affairs the resources of the area should be exploited for the people that lives there to permit a sustainable development of the region.
The solution should be, in my modest advice, the independence of SADR in the region of Western Sahara, except by the mines zone of Bou Craa and the main cities that should be administrated by international authorities, giving part of incomes to Morocco government.
An international political solution as for the issue of resources in the Ruhr zone in Europe after World War II can be the diplomatic solution to a prickly case that can became a serious matter in the years to come for the entire area.

CRISTIAN BARBIERI 623962 Relazioni Internazionali


http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNADW835.pdf
http://www.icj-cij.org/docket/index.php?sum=323&p1=3&p2=4&case=61&p3=5
http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/22464
http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/2000/461
http://www.refworld.org/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/rwmain?docid=464047ae2
http://www.wikileaks.org/cable/2005/05/05RABAT1052.html
http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/2002/161