Macro-environmental modelling of the current distribution of Undaria pinnatifida (Laminariales, Ochrophyta) in northern Iberia

Macro-environmental modelling of the current distribution of Undaria pinnatifida (Laminariales, Ochrophyta) in northern Iberia -------------------------------José C. Báez1, Jesús Olivero2, César Peteiro3, Francisco Ferri-Yáñez4, Carlos García-Soto3 & Raimundo Real2 1

Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO), Centro Oceanográfico de Málaga, 29640

Fuengirola, Malaga, Spain 2

Universidad de Málaga (UMA), Facultad de Ciencias, 29071 Malaga, Spain

3

Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO), Centro Oceanográfico de Santander, 39004

Santander, Spain 4

International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), 7500 AA

Enschede, The Netherlands

Manuscript published Biological Invasions (2010), 12(7): 2131–2139. DOI: 10.1007/s10530-009-9614-1

SUMMARY The Asian kelp Undaria pinnatifida was first reported in north-western Spain in 1988. Since then, it has spread along the Galician coasts and towards the western Cantrabrian coast, probably supported by new introductions related to aquaculture and private yachts. Despite the high potential of this seaweed to invade new areas, it has not fully established itself in specific areas along the eastern Cantabrian coast where it has been farmed. We attempted to identify the macro-environmental determinants for the successful establishment of U. pinnatifida in the northern Iberian coast. Thus, we built a model based on the significant relationships between this kelp and several environmental factors using the Favourability Function, a method based on binary logistic regression. We obtained a statistically significant Favourability model where the chlorophyll concentration in summer was the most influential variable and the photosynthetically active radiation in spring was a secondary variable that best characterized the presence of U. pinnatifida. The ecological implications are discussed.

INTRODUCTION There is an increasing worldwide interest in the study of foreign invasive species, given their effects on native ecosystem structures and the way they modify global biodiversity (López-Darías et al. 2007). Knowledge concerning ecological traits and interactions between native and invasive species is therefore crucial in predicting and preventing biological invasions (e.g. see Parker et al. 2006 and references therein). There is also interest in predicting which regions or habitats are the most susceptible to be colonised by alien species, as well as which factors favour increased invasiveness (e.g. see Heger &Trelp 2003). For this purpose, analyses of foreign species distributions in their new ranges are useful, as they aid in understanding the adaptive capability of these species in the occupied areas. Biogeographic modelling studies are becoming fundamental tools for the rational management of fauna and flora and for environmental conservation. Spatial models help making inferences on the expected distribution of species as a function of the environmental, biotic, spatial and human characteristics of the territory under study (Burnham &Anderson 2002). Peterson & Vieglais (2001) recommended modelling the ecological niche of an invasive species to predict its future distribution. However, this aspect of biogeography has scarcely been studied in relation to alien algae. Undaria pinnatifida (Harvey) Suringar (Laminariales, Ochrophyta) is native to eastern Asia where it is extensively cultivated for human consumption. This seaweed has also undergone anthropogenic global spread due to aquaculture and maritime traffic (e.g. Floc’h et

al. 1991). As a result of this, U. pinnatifida has successfully invaded coastal areas around the world, and is considered one of the three most invasive seaweed species in the European Atlantic coasts (ICES 2007). This alga was first found on the Atlantic coast of Spain in 1988 in a mussel farm in Ría de Arousa (Galicia, N. W. Spain) (Santiago-Caamaño et al.1990). The presence of U. pinnatifida in Galicia has been recently reviewed by Cremades et al. (2006). At present, this alien seaweed is established along the west coast of Galicia, aquaculture appearing to be the most likely vector for its introduction. This species was also reported in 1995 in Gijon harbour (Asturias, N. Spain), the most likely vectors being private yachts (Salinas et al. 1996). Since then, only one new additional citation has been noted in the Cantabrian Sea, in Cudillero harbour, Asturias (Pérez-Ruzafa et al. 2002), even though U. pinnatifida has been cultivated in Santander (Cantabrian Sea) since the early 2000s (Peteiro 2008). Undaria pinnatifida has undergone selective dispersal since its arrival, such that it is now occurring in sites where it was not introduced by human activity, but is absent from sites where it has been cultivated in the past. The prediction of the future course of invasions has been a major aim of ecological research ever since biological invasions have come into focus (Heger & Trelp 2003). For this reason, it could be interesting modelling the current distribution of this seaweed in northern Spain, about 20 years since its introduction, to determine favourable areas for the species and to forecast its future course according to its potential range. Although it is still in dispute whether it is feasible or not to produce accurate predictions (Daehler & Carino 2000) for alien species, as they could never be in equilibrium with its new environment, some authors have previously modelled the potential expansion range of invasive species with a more than reasonable output. For example, Muñoz &Real (2006) determined favourable areas for the monk parakeet Myiopsitta monachus, in Spanish Peninsula to account for its current distribution and forecast its future course according to its potential range. For a foreign seaweed with a slow natural expansion rate, as it is the case of U. pinnatifida in Iberia (Cremades et al. 2006), the optimization of its reproductive capacity would be decisive in becoming established in new areas. In this context, we examined the most important macro-environmental factors that determine the successful establishment of U. pinnatifida, and tried to explain why there is no spreading of this alien species along the eastern coast of the Cantabrian Sea. The initial assumptions are that, although the arrival of U. pinnatifida seems to have been due to human factors (aquaculture and/or maritime traffic), the ability of this seaweed to spread after its introduction does not only depend on human factors,

but also on the attributes of the algae and on the characteristics of the habitat being invaded (Larson et al. 2001).

MATERIALS AND METHODS Undaria pinnatifida, like all kelps, has a biphasic life cycle, with microscopic gametophytes and macroscopic sporophytes. This study is based on all records currently available for U. pinnatifida in northern Iberia, based on observations of individuals in the sporophytic stage. Sporophytes are usually longer than 1 m in the northern Iberian coast, and are easily distinguishable from any other native laminariales species in the study area. The current coastal distribution of U. pinnatifida in northern Iberian Peninsula is shown in Figure 1. The records were compiled from the work of Santiago-Caamaño et al. (1990), Salinas et al. (1996), Pérez-Ruzafa et al. (2002), Cremades et al. (2006) and Peteiro (2008). For the rest of the study area, U. pinnatifida was considered reliably absent according to exhaustive phycological prospecting by Bárbara et al. (2006), Cremades et al. (2006) and Martínez-Gil et al. (2007) in the western Cantabrian coast, and by Gorostiaga et al. (2004) and our team in the eastern Cantabrian coast. We searched for U. pinnatifida in a nonprospected coastal stretch between Gijon (where the last record was taken in 2002) and the Basque region, with 26 winter visits in January, February, and March 2007–2008. Twelve of those visits were made around Santander, where U. pinnatifida was cultivated in the early 2000s. We did not find any trace of sporophyte presences in the intertidal (3.5 m) and upper subtidal (5 m) zones, where the most characteristic habitats for this species are found (Cremades et al. 2006, ICES 2007). Availability of energy, climatic stress, chemical potential for primary productivity, and anthropogenic factors were considered to build a distribution model, each of which were represented by a set of macroenvironmental variables (see Table 1): Availability of energy. Some species and/or communities may need high values of environmental energy to satisfy their physiological requirements and to maintain their competitive capacity (Hutchinson 1959). Indicators of the influence of this factor include positive associations between the presence of U. pinnatifida and mean annual solar radiation, Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) (average for each annual season) and seawater surface temperatures in January and August (key months for the development of new gametophytes and sporophytes, respectively, in the study area; see Cremades et al. 2006, ICES 2007).

Climatic stress. A warm climate may cause physiological stress to some species that may limit its development and reproduction (Lünning 1990). The influence of this factor could be deduced by a negative relationship between the presence of U. pinnatifida and seawater surface temperatures average for each annual season. Chemical potential for primary productivity. Coastal primary productivity levels are closely correlated with nitrate and phosphate concentrations in seawater (Lobban & Harrison 2000), which, according to Mann & Lazier (1991) is correlated with water run-off. For this reason, we searched for positive associations between the presence of U. pinnatifida and mean annual run-off, the annual precipitation variation coefficient in the adjacent river basins, Chlorophyll concentration, and Carbon based productivity. The two latter were computed for each annual season. Human factor. According to Larson et al. (2001) and Keeley et al. (2005), anthropogenic disturbance favours the spread of alien species. Human concentrations next to the coast usually imply effluents that may cause water eutrophication, and on the other hand, port cities may also be related to alien species introductions. The distribution of harbours in the northern Iberian Peninsula is roughly homogeneous, but commercial ports and the most important yachting harbours are mainly located next the largest cities. As an indicator of the influence of this factor, we used a negative relationship between the presence of U. pinnatifida and distance to the nearest cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants and to those with more than 500,000 inhabitants. To analyze the geographical distribution of U. pinnatifida in northern Iberia, the coastline was divided into the coastal stretches of the 55 Galician-Cantabrian river basins. The presence or absence of U. pinnatifida thus referred to these geographical units in the distribution model. River basins strongly affect the exchange of water, sediments, energy and nutrients among wetlands (Real et al. 1993), and this has a great influence on nutrient enrichment in coastal waters near river mouths (Mann & Lazier 1991), thus affecting marine species distribution along or near the coast. The values considered for the above variables, except for seawater surface temperatures, are their average values at a 1 9 1 km resolution in every river basin. Marine variables (Carbon based productivity, Chlorophyll concentration, PAR, seawater surface temperatures average for each annual season) were obtained from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), provided by NASA. All marine variables are average of 7 years (2001–2007 depending on data availability).

We used the Favourability Function (Real et al. 2006) to model the distribution of U. pinnatifida according to the macro-environmental variables. The Favourability Function has the form: F = exp (y') / [1 + exp (y')], where y' = α + β1x1 + β2x2 +• • •+βnxn – ln(n1 / n0), α is a constant, β1, β2, . . . , βn are the coefficients of the n predictor variables x1, x2, . . . , xn, and n1 and n0 are, respectively, the number of presences and absences of the species in the geographical unit. The difference between Favourability (F) and probability (P) derived from the logistic binary regression is the inclusion of the monomial –ln(n1/n0) in the former, by which geographical predictions for the species are made independently of the initial presence/absence rate. Favourability was computed by logistic binary regression, as it can be related to probability as follows: F = [P / (1 – P)] / [(n1 / n0) + (P / [1 – P])]. The Favourability Function has been successfully used to model invasive species distributions (e.g. Muñoz & Real 2006, Real et al. 2008) and logistic binary regressions have proven useful to characterize the distributions of marine algae distributions in environmental terms (e.g. Báez et al. 2004, 2005). Forward–backward stepwise logistic regression with the set of predictor variables was performed. As a result, only a selection of these variables appears in the final model, which is conditioned by the degree to which the inclusion or deletion of a single variable significantly improves the model in every step. To control for the increase in type I errors due to multiple tests (Benjamini & Hochberg 1995, García 2003), we only accepted those variables that were significant under a False Discovery Rate (FDR) of q< 0.05, using the Benjamini & Hochberg (1995) procedure. We then applied the favourability function on the subset of significant predictive variables. The relative importance of each variable within the model was quantified using the Wald parameter, which follows a Chisquare distribution (Zuur et al. 2007). We assessed the model's goodness-of-fit using the Hosmer & Lemeshow test (Hosmer & Lemeshow 2000), and the discrimination capacity of the model was evaluated with the receiving operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The area under the ROC curve (AUC, see Fielding & Bell 1997, Lobo et al. 2008) provides a singlenumber discrimination measure across all possible thresholds, thus avoiding subjectivity in the threshold selection process, an AUC value higher than 0.9 is considered outstanding (Hosmer & Lemeshow 2000, p. 162). The favourability value predicted by the resulting model was geographically represented by downscaling the equation to a 1 × 1 km grid. Values of the environmental variables included in the model at a 1 × 1 km resolution were used for this.

Pair-wise Pearson correlation between the most important variables for Undaria pinnatifida presence based on Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) of bivariate Logistic regression models was made to visualize and evaluate the relation between them. AIC is a measure of goodness of fit and can be calculated for each possible combination of explanatory variables (Akaike 1973, Zuur et al. 2007). AIC is defined by: AIC = n log(SS residual) + 2(p + 1) – n log(n)

RESULTS Undaria pinnatifida was reported in 23 of the 55 Galician-Cantabrian river basins studied. Chlorophyll concentration, PAR and average sea surface temperature (mostly for spring and summer) have a close correlation between them (Table 2). We obtained a statistically significant Favourability model where the chlorophyll concentration in summer was the most influential variable (Wald = 5.362) and the photosynthetically active radiation in spring was a secondary variable (Wald = 3.336). The model goodness-of-fit was significant (Hosmer and Lemeshow's chi-square = 1.37, P = 0.986), and its discrimination capacity was outstanding (AUC = 0.987). The geographic favourability, downscaled to 1 9 1 km resolution, is shown in Figure 2.

DISCUSSION According to the favourability map presented in Figure 2, only the western coasts facing the Atlantic Ocean, and those around Gijon facing the Cantabrian Sea, are highly favourable areas (> 0.8) for U. pinnatifida. These extend to northern Portugal, which agrees with a recent published record from Portugal by Araujo et al. (2009). Distance from the introduction sites still has some capacity to explain the current distribution of this seaweed, as there is a significant negative correlation between the number of records for this species in Galicia and the distance to Ría de Arousa (Galicia, N.W. Spain), where this seaweed was first observed in 1988. Chemical potential for primary productivity associated with chlorophyll concentration in summer and with energy availability are involved in the characterization of the current distribution of U. pinnatifida in northern Iberian coasts. We observed a longitudinal gradient in which chlorophyll concentration in summer decreases westward along the coast where most observations of this seaweed have been recorded. PAR decreases latitudinally towards the north. Thus, this variable could explain the differences found along the Galician Coast. Nevertheless, it is difficult to relate PAR directly with the biology of U. pinnatifida as this

seaweed presents low saturated light requirements, and low Irradiance-saturated photosynthesis (Campbell et al. 1999). We interpret these results in a macro-ecologic context; in agreement with many authors (Hutchinson 1959, Wright 1983, Davis et al. 2000), the number of species in a given territory is positively correlated with the availability of energy and resources. There are more large seaweeds, such as kelps, in ecosystems, where energy availability is higher. These communities could create suitable habitats for U. pinnatifida, for instance, by shadowing the habitat. Moreover, these results could explain why this species has not colonised the highly oligotrophic Mediterranean sea from Thau lagoon, about 20 km southwest of Montpelier, France, where it occurs since 1971; and also why U. pinnatifida is found growing close to where urban waste water is discharged and thriving in nutrient-rich polluted water in the Atlantic coasts (Curiel et al. 1998, Castric-Fey et al. 1999a, b, Cecere et al. 2000). In the eastern coasts of the study area, where macro-ecological conditions seem to be highly unfavourable for U. pinnatifida (see Figure 2), the model representation suggests that human factors could be affecting its current distribution and, probably, also its future spread. Three isolated areas show intermediate environmental favourability values, that is, between 0.2 and 0.8, surrounded by a large low favourability territory. These are three river mouths that are close to provincial capitals: Oviedo, Santander and Bilbao. This is in agreement with previous cases as in Tasmania, where high rate of human eutrophization could facilitate the establishment of U. pinnatifida (Valentine & Johnson 2003, Valentine et al. 2007). This kelp has been found in waters surrounding Oviedo (in Gijón, Lastres and Cudillero, see Figure 1), but the absence of U. pinnatifida in Santander, despite it has been cultivated in that city, suggests that the macro-ecological conditions there are not suitable for the kelp (the environmental favourability is only between 0.2 and 0.4). On the contrary, U. pinnatifida could settle successfully next to Bilbao, where predicted favourability values are between 0.6 and 0.8. Despite this, the current absence of U. pinnatifida in Santander could be related to Allee effects, which are decreases in the population growth rate caused by decreases in population abundance (Courchamp et al. 1999). The probability of new species becoming established generally appears to be related to the size of the initial populations, and founder populations, which are typically small, are at great risk of extinction due to stochasticity and Allee effects (Tobin et al. 2007). For benthic organisms with low mobility, the concurrence of depensatory mortality and the Allee effects has been suggested (Ramírez-Félix & ManzoMonroy 2004). Thus, the lack of observations of U. pinnatifida settlements around Santander may be a result of a low introduction rate combined with an low favourable environment.

Some authors have proposed the existence of a qualitative and quantitative biotic boundary for seaweeds somewhere along the Cantabrian coast (Bay of Biscay), and differences in seawater surface temperature have been postulated as one of the main causes of this (Sauvageau 1897, Feldmann & Lami 1941, van den Hoek & Donze 1966, Gorostiaga et al. 2004, Bárbara et al. 2005). The warming of waters during summer in the Bay of Biscay is considered responsible for the absence or very rare occurrence of cold temperature species, such as large fucoids and kelps, which are common in Galicia and Britain (van den Hoek & Donze 1966, Gorostiaga et al. 2004). The species composition is more adapted to warmer waters in the east, which is agreement with Cheney's ratio (index for comparing seaweed flora, expressed as (R + C)/O, where R: Rhodophyta, C: Chlorophyta and O: Ochorophyta; see Cheney 1977), whose values are higher in the east (4.09) than in Galicia (2.94). Temperature has been considered the most important factor in the broad scale distribution of seaweeds (Lünning 1990). However, U. pinnatifida is able to survive in a wide range of temperatures. Summer temperature is closely correlated with chlorophyll concentration, because in summer there is an upwelling of cold eutrophic waters in the Biscay Bay which decreases in importance towards the East along the coasts of Galicia and the Cantabrian Sea. There is a close agreement between upwelling and chlorophyll concentration (Gil 2008). Thus, differential east-west seaweed composition, and the current distribution of U. pinnatifida in northern Iberia could be related to the chemical potential for primary productivity and the energy availability, which are factors that are probably more involved in the marine boundary than the surface seawater temperature. In the northern coast of Spain, there are two sporophyte recruitment periods: late summer and early winter. Macroscopic recruits appear in the winter months, mature during the spring, and senesce during summer as water temperature increases (see review Cremades et al. 2006, ICES 2007). Mature sporophytes release motile zoospores, which settle and develop into microscopic gametophytes. The gametophyte stage of this species persists over the summer, and can survive long periods while waiting for optimal conditions in order to mature. Gametophyte development occurs once water temperatures drop below 20 ºC, with an optimum range between 10 and 15 ºC (Morita et al. 2003a). Mature gametophytes undergo sexual reproduction to produce embryonic sporophytes that subsequently develop into macroscopic individuals. It has been reported that microscopic gametophytes can survive a temperature ranging from -1 to 30 ºC (Saito 1975). The optimum growing temperatures for the sporophyte fall from 10–15 to 17–20 ºC (Akiyama 1965, Saito 1975) and the total acceptable range for sporophyte development is between 4–5 and 25 ºC (Akiyama & Kurogi

1982, Morita et al. 2003b). In August, the sea surface temperature gradient along the northern Iberian coast falls from about 17 ºC in the west to 22 ºC in the east. These temperatures are within the acceptable range for U. pinnatifida, but it is also true that the eastern half of the study area shows temperatures outside the optimum range. Therefore, although temperatures cannot, in principle, and by itself explain the absence of colonisation in the east of the Cantabrian coast, we still consider that it is an important factor contributing to its presence. In fact, Castric-Fey et al. (1999b) described the temperature range for possible sporophyte recruitment in France as 5–20 ºC, recruitment peaks occurring at 13–17 ºC, which is totally outside the sea surface temperature range in the eastern Cantabrian coast.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We are grateful to Ignacio Bárbara and Óscar Freire for providing us with access to the Undaria pinnatifida data stored in the SANT-algae Herbarium (Index Herbariorum code). This work has been partially financed by project CGL2006-09567/BOS (Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia, Spain, and FEDER funds). We also thank to Dr. Daniel Simberloff and one anonymous referee their comments.

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Table 1. Variables used to model the distribution of Undaria pinnatifida in northern peninsular Spain Variable

Units

Annual precipitation variation coefficient a Mean carbon based productivity for each annual season b

gC m−2 year−1

Mean chlorophyll concentration for each annual season b

mg m−3

Distance to the nearest city with more than 100,000 inhabitants c

Km

Distance to the nearest city with more than 500,000 inhabitants c

Km

Mean annual run-off

d

mm

Mean annual solar radiation a

kwh m−2 day−1

Mean photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) for each annual season b

μmol photons m−2 day−1

Mean seawater surface temperatures for the coldest month (January) b

ºC

Mean Seawater surface temperatures for the warmest month (August) b

ºC

Mean seawater surface temperatures for each annual season

b

ºC

Sources: a Font (2000); b MODIS, provided by NASA, data set is available from the website: http://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/; c

IGN (1999); d Álvarez et al. (1979)

Table 2. Pair-wise Pearson correlation between the most important variables for Undaria pinnatifida presence based on AIC of bivariate Logistic regression models cb_sum

chl_spr

chl_sum

par_spr

par_sum

par_aut

rad_win

mst_sum

mst_jan

mst_aug

AIC

cb_sum

1

0.893**

0.857**

0.822**

0.903**

0.744**

0.866**

–0.513**

–0.704**

–0.606**

102.84

chl_spr

0.893**

1

0.827**

0.729**

0.740**

0.702**

0.821**

–0.248

–0.516**

–0.340*

177.07

chl_sum

0.857**

0.827**

1

0.744**

0.860**

0.752**

0.635**

–0.568**

–0.730**

–0.620**

93.12

par_spr

0.822**

0.729**

0.744**

1

0.794**

0.816**

0.691**

–0.631**

–0.683**

–0.703**

103.96

par_sum

0.903**

0.740**

0.860**

0.794**

1

0.663**

0.757**

–0.644**

–0.736**

–0.706**

91.42

par_aut

0.744**

0.702**

0.752**

0.816**

0.663**

1

0.675**

–0.539**

–0.527**

–0.639**

173.93

rad_inv

0.866**

0.821**

0.635**

0.691**

0.757**

0.675**

1

–0.265*

–0.450**

–0.370**

212.15

mst_sum

–0.513**

–0.248

–0.568**

–0.631**

–0.644**

–0.539**

–0.265*

1

0.732**

0.967**

158.91

mst_jan

–0.704**

–0.516**

–0.730**

–0.683**

–0.736**

–0.527**

–0.450**

0.732**

1

0.727**

109.10

mst_aug

–0.606**

–0.340*

–0.620**

–0.703**

–0.706**

–0.639**

–0.370**

0.967**

0.727**

1

172.45

Key: cb_sum, mean Carbon based productivity for Summer; chl_spr, mean Chlorophyll concentration for Spring; chl_sum, mean Chlorophyll concentration for Summer; par_sum, mean PAR for Summer; par_aut, mean PAR for Autumn; rad_win, mean annual solar radiation for Winter; mst_sum; Mean Seawater surface temperatures for Summer; mst_jan, Mean Seawater surface temperatures for the coldest month (January); mast_aug, Mean Seawater surface temperatures for the warmest month (August) * Correlation significant at 0.05 threshold ** Correlation significant at 0.01 threshold

Figure 1. Distribution of Undaria pinnatifida along the north Spanish coast. Key: Filled circles U. pinnatifida recorded Figure 2. Favourability of Undaria pinnatifida in Northern Spain according to the favourability function (Real et al. 2006) using chlorophyll concentration in summer and photosynthetically active radiation in spring as predictor variables. Points indicate records of U. pinnatifida

Figure 1.

Figure 2.