Inter-provincial migration trends in Pakistan Econ 318

Interprovincial migration trends in Pakistan
Econ 318
Syed Khuram Farukh
15020235


Abstract
This paper seeks to document and analyze the reasons for interprovincial migration in Pakistan. It uses empirical data to see the migration flows between different provinces and then tries to fit the migration trends into certain theories of migration which have already been set in place. Gender based differentials in migration are also looked upon in detail. The paper is concluded with some policy recommendations and solutions which can finish or at least reduce the problems discussed in the paper






1.1 Introduction
Internal migration is a phenomenon which is not given as much attention as it deserves in Pakistan. Being a developing country, Pakistan is heavily dependent upon its rural agriculture sector and simultaneously, the development of urban industrial sector is of utmost importance as well. Similarly, the non-uniform provincial development has also led to the formation of some migration flows, from the less developed provinces to the more developed ones. Striking a balance between the labour available for work at a particular place and the labour required at the same place is a challenge that economists and policy makers of Pakistan face continuously. This paper will seek to uncover the reasons behind internal migration in Pakistan and try to categorize them into different theories of migration. Furthermore, the paper will also look upon the gender based differentials and provide explanations for them. The paper is divided in the following way: section 2.1 will give facts and figures about inter provincial migration 2.2 will explain the case of Punjab with HC theory and 2.3 will explain the case of sindh with HH risk reduction theory. Section 2.4 will shed some light on the case of Baluchistan. Section 3 will discuss gender based differentials. Section 4 will provide certain policy recommendations and section 5 will provide a conclusion of the paper.
1.2 Literature Review
Cazes and verick (2013) provide theoretical frameworks for migration. Special emphasis is given on observing the act of migration across different countries and categorizing them separately. Similar cases of migration are fit into certain moulds according to the theories of migration. Empirical evidence which proves that migration is not gender neutral has also been discussed in detail.
Mahmud et all, provide specific data about interprovincial migration within Pakistan and distinguish Rural-Urban population from Urban-Urban population. Certain trends that point towards a shift from primary sector (agriculture) to secondary sector (industry) have also been isolated and discussed in detail.
Hamid (2010) Focuses on rural urban migration. The paper shows increasing trends of women migrating from one place to another within Pakistan and discusses the repercussions of this ease of migration.
Two data sets have been used which were provided by Pakistan Bureau of stastics, collected in the labour participation census in 2012-2013.
2.1 Facts and Figures of inter provincial migration
Punjab is currently the province which has the highest population (66.96%) as well as the highest population density. The greatest migration inflows have also been observed in Punjab as entire households from other provinces show a trend towards moving to Punjab. Migration outflow from Punjab however show huge gender differential. Men tend to migrate more often than women, which show that women and children are left in Punjab while men look for work in other provinces (Mahmud 8). Residents of Baluchistan show a certain level of seclusion in both inward and outward migration. Even the internal migration of the province is relatively low, hence the residents of Baluchistan are inclined towards staying in the districts that they were born in as opposed to travelling to other districts within the same province.

2.2 The case of Punjab and HH risk reduction
The data set shown above depicts the picture of migration outflows from Punjab. The purple circles show that men are more inclined than women to leave the province and move to other areas to find employment which can run their house hold. The location of the household however remains in Punjab which means that men or breadwinners send remittances back to the Punjab making it even more developed. Since the competition is so high between different parts of Punjab, men generally tend to migrate towards other areas and set up their own workplaces in informal sector. Moving from an area which does not have enough employment opportunity to one that has relatively less competition reduces household risk and in turn stabilizes the economic condition of the household. The rationale behind this concept follows from the new institutionalist economics model of stark and bloom. The decision of migration is not rooted in self decision, rather the breadwinner enters a contract with the rest of the family members and assures that the utility if the entire household is maximized. This kind of migration generally takes place from rural areas of Punjab to urban areas of other provinces.
2.3 The case of Sindh and KPK: Human capital theory and HH risk reduction theory
The outward migration from sindh and KPK is very high. This migration is not just limited to bread winners of the family but it actually incorporates the entire families that move from one province to another in order to increase their life chances and at the same time positively contribute to their Human capital. The blue circle in the table above shows people who migrate from sindh to Punjab. The male to female ratio in this migration is very high which means that entire households tend to migrate. The human capital theory suggests that the population of rural areas of less developed provinces tends to migrate into the urban centers of developed provinces to develop certain skills and acquire on the job training which makes them fit for the labour market. So an average wage worker in sindh is inclined to move towards a city or a town which prompts the development of a skill, such as weaving or shoe making. After acquiring these skills the labourer possess some level of Human capital which can be used to increase earnings. Lessons to learn certain skills are only offered in developed provinces like Punjab, hence the migration flow suggests this movement. Another theory which also explains the trend of migration from sindh and NWFP is the HH risk reduction theory. People tend to migrate towards Punjab because it offers better education for their children, better health facilities for all its inhabitants and as mentioned earlier, better employment opportunities for all its skilled members. A contract is signed between the family here aswell in which the breadwinner may compromise in his/her career to some degree so that the entire family maximizes its utility by sending the children to school and ensuring better health conditions (cazes and verick: 133).

2.4 The case of Baluchistan
Baluchistan, Pakistans largest province has the lowest population amongst the 4 provinces. Apart from having low population the province is of considerable interest because it also has almost negligible migration rate. The province is secluded from the entire country since both the rates of inward and outward migration are very low. Baluchistan's condition cannot be explained by any of the human capital theories. Despite having immense potential for economic activity, people from all across Pakistan try their level best to stay clear of Baluchistan. The main reason for this is rooted in the politicaly unstable conditions of the province. The rit of the country is not very strong, and in some areas it is completely absent. Numerous policy recommendations have been given to improve the migration rates connected to Baluchistan which will be discussed later on.
3.1 Gender based differentials in migration
The gender based differential in migrations is not a differential in the magnitude of migration but in the reason behind that migration. Over the years the trend of migration of women from once province to another has increased substantially(Hamid 5). Women tend to migrate for more home oriented and family centered reasons while men tend to migrate for professional reasons.

In the graph above, the red circles highlight the professional reasons for migration such as job search, transfer etc. Men show a greater percentage point movement in this bracket and the stats for women are extremely low. Even the acquiring of education can be counted as a professional reason for migration and the number of men is more than two times higher than women to shift places for educational reasons. The blue circle highlights migration to due personal reasons such as marriage, movement with spouse and with family. Women show a much greater movement in this case for instance, 34.15% women migrate due to marriage while only 1.08% men move because of marriage.


Section 4
Gender composition data reveals that the percentage of both men and women who tend to migrate is increasing gradually. The irregular development of provinces however has proven to be very problematic because people tend to migrate from less developed provinces to more developed ones
A possible way to subsidize this skew is to start developmental projects in provinces such as sindh and Baluchistan. People will only be inclined towards migrating when the living conditions of these provinces would improve (Hamid 15).
Gender based differentials can be eradicated by making education mandatory for women, so that the age that they get married at is pushed further up. Once women will begin to acquire education and carve a career out for themselves they will be more inclined to migrate due to professional reasons rather than family reasons. This will be beneficial for the overall economy since men wouldn't be the only breadwinners of the house and women migrating due to HH reduction risk would also be able to contribute aptly to the economy
Fiscal decentralization, which has given provinces the autonomy to devise and execute their own developmental projects can help in evening out the developmental skew and completely finish the disparity between Punjab and Baluchistan. This would in turn make Baluchistan more productive and Punjab less competitive, essentially benefiting the wage labourers of both these provinces (Mahmud 15)
5.1 Conclusion
This paper discussed the internal migration of Pakistan and touched upon the topics of inter provincial migration, rural urban migration and intra province migration as well. Specific provinces such as Punjab and Baluchistan were also discussed and Pakistan's migration data was tried to fit into migration theories with a significant degree of success. At the end some policy recommendations to curb the skew in migration were also provided.
















Works Cited

Cazes, Sandrine, and Sher Verick. "Perspectives on Labor Economics for Development."International Labor Organization (2013): 131-39. Web. 17 Dec. 2013.

Hamid, Shahnaz. "Rural to Urban Migration in Pakistan: The Gender Perspective." Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, 2010. Web. 17 Dec. 2013. .

Mahmud, Mahreen, Farah Said, and Tareena Musaddiq. "Determinants of Internal Migration in Pakistan – Lessons from Existing Patterns." N.p., n.d. Web. 18 Dec. 2013. .



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